It’s finally over! After four straight weeks of four or more teams on bye, we get to watch the entire NFL for the first time since September. And to celebrate, we get to watch football all day on Thursday! With just one or two weeks left until the playoffs, there’s a strong chance you know if you’re in or not. In a 12-team league with four playoff spots, you’re almost guaranteed to make the playoffs if you have eight or more wins at this point, and almost guaranteed not to if you have six or fewer. That means you probably only care about your defense this week if you’re sitting at seven wins. That might be a blessing, because it will be easier to get the defense you want if no one else is trying this week.
If you’re not one of the few teams who need a win this week, you can plan for the playoffs. These could change over the next week, but below are my top five defenses for Week 14. Fortunately, most of them are pretty low-owned, so you shouldn’t have a hard time finding someone to stash.
- Green Bay vs WAS (43% owned, @ NYG this week)
- Houston vs DEN (42% owned, vs NE this week)
- Cleveland vs CIN (25% owned, @ PIT this week)
- NY Jets vs MIA (9% owned, @ CIN this week)
- Pittsburgh @ ARI (80% owned, vs CLE this week)
If you’re planning even further ahead, below are my top five for Week 15. The Patriots and 49ers both have good matchups, so there are fewer low-owned teams in the top five, but Kansas City should be easy to get.
- New England vs CIN (99% owned, @ HOU this week)
- Philadelphia vs WAS (39% owned, @ MIA this week)
- Baltimore @ NYJ (48% owned, vs SF this week)
- Kansas City vs DEN (25% owned, vs OAK this week)
- San Francisco vs ATL (90% owned, @ BAL this week)
Week 13 Ranks
Despite the conclusion of bye weeks, there’s only one team I really feel great about. There are plenty of OK teams, however, so you shouldn’t have to dig too deep. Ownership is from Yahoo. If you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | CAR | WAS | 41 | -9.5 | 15.75 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.16 | 10.45 | 46% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 2 | GB | @NYG | 46.5 | -7.3 | 19.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 7.89 | 43% |
| 3 | PHI | @MIA | 45.5 | -7.8 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 7.31 | 39% |
| 4 | PIT | CLE | 40.5 | -2.5 | 19.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 7.24 | 80% |
| 5 | NYJ | @CIN | 41 | -3.5 | 18.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.98 | 9% |
| 6 | LAC | @DEN | 38.5 | 1 | 19.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 6.94 | 71% |
| 7 | DEN | LAC | 38.5 | -1 | 18.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.77 | 30% |
| 8 | DAL | BUF | 45 | -7 | 19.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.74 | 35% |
| 9 | JAC | TB | 48.5 | -3 | 22.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 6.67 | 85% |
| 10 | CHI | @DET | 41.5 | 1 | 21.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 6.58 | 97% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | IND | TEN | 42 | -3.3 | 19.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.57 | 38% |
| 12 | WAS | @CAR | 41 | 9.5 | 25.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.56 | 7% |
| 13 | NE | @HOU | 44.5 | -4 | 20.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.51 | 99% |
| 14 | DET | CHI | 41.5 | -1 | 20.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.46 | 13% |
| 15 | LAR | @ARI | 47 | -3.5 | 21.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 6.43 | 93% |
| 16 | CIN | NYJ | 41 | 3.5 | 22.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.37 | 1% |
| 17 | CLE | @PIT | 40.5 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 6.27 | 25% |
| 18 | NO | @ATL | 49.5 | -4.5 | 22.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.16 | 81% |
| 19 | BAL | SF | 46 | -4.5 | 20.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 6.02 | 48% |
| 20 | KC | OAK | 54 | -9.8 | 22.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.67 | 25% |
| 21 | MIN | @SEA | 49 | 3 | 26.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.64 | 95% |
| 22 | TEN | @IND | 42 | 3.3 | 22.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.11 | 5.61 | 49% |
| 23 | SEA | MIN | 49 | -3 | 23.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.57 | 50% |
| 24 | ARI | LAR | 47 | 3.5 | 25.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 5.43 | 4% |
| 25 | MIA | PHI | 45.5 | 7.8 | 26.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.25 | 1% |
| 26 | NYG | GB | 46.5 | 7.3 | 26.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.23 | 6% |
| 27 | BUF | @DAL | 45 | 7 | 26.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.13 | 78% |
| 28 | HOU | NE | 44.5 | 4 | 24.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.00 | 42% |
| 29 | ATL | NO | 49.5 | 4.5 | 27.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 4.77 | 2% |
| 30 | TB | @JAC | 48.5 | 3 | 25.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 4.70 | 3% |
| 31 | SF | @BAL | 46 | 4.5 | 25.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.10 | 4.58 | 90% |
| 32 | OAK | @KC | 54 | 9.8 | 31.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 3.13 | 1% |
Matchup Notes
- CAR vs WAS: With Andy Dalton starting again for the Bengals and Ryan Fitzpatrick being not-horrible for the Dolphins, Washington is probably the worst offense in the league. I would start most teams against them, but Carolina is a top-5 defense, and they’re at home. This is a home run.
- GB @ NYG: The Giants and Packers have both been up and down lately, but Daniel Jones has been sacked a ton, and Vegas doesn’t expect many points from the Giants.
- PHI @ MIA: Fitzpatrick threw a touchdown (two of them, actually) for the first time in three weeks against Cleveland, but he also turned the ball over three times. While the Eagles didn’t manage to beat the Seahawks, their defense did its job, holding Russell Wilson to 17 points. Miami should be even easier.
- PIT vs CLE: Oh boy is this going to be fun to watch. The Browns blew up last week (after blowing up in a different way against Pittsburgh the night before), but that’s not typical this season, and they did it against the horrible Dolphins. The Browns are likely to return to mediocre form this week.
- NYJ @ CIN: Andy Dalton is starting again, which is a slight upgrade for the Bengals, but they’re still pretty terrible. This would be an excellent mathcup if the Jets were at home. On the road I’m less enthusiastic, but still interested.
- LAC @ DEN: Most weeks have one game where both sides are viable, and this time the AFC West that gets to be terrible. While the Broncos are the home team, they’re also the team with a practice squad quarterback, so Los Angeles gets the better rank of the two.
- DEN vs LAC: I fully expect the Broncos to hold Los Angeles to fewer than 20 points and lose anyway. It’s fortunate that Denver’s defense isn’t the kind of dumpster fire their offense is, so they’re a reasonable start this week.
- DAL vs BUF: Josh Allen is the best quarterback named Josh or Allen in the NFL, but that’s not a particularly high bar, despite their quantity. The Cowboys’ defense isn’t amazing, but they did manage to keep Tom Brady to 13 points, so they should do fine against Buffalo.
- JAC vs TB: As usual, I have Tampa Bay’s opponent ranked as a low-end starter, with a high ceiling and a rock-bottom floor. If anyone’s going to throw five interceptions this week, Jacksonville has the best chance to be the team catching them.
- CHI @ DET:
Stafford isn’t particularly turnover-prone, but he’s been sacked quite a bit lately.Edit: Stafford won’t be able to return in time for the Thursday game, so Driskel will be the starter, and he is both sack- and interception-prone. With a projection of just 21.3 points allowed, I have no issues with using Chicago this week.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.