With two weeks of the preseason in the books, we’re already starting to see some trends regarding how well (Jimmy Graham) or poorly (Ronald Jones) some players may perform and how teams might utilize their personnel, especially in the wake of all these early injuries (Jeremy Hill). While the third week of the preseason will give fantasy owners an even bigger glimpse into what we should expect through the 2018 season, we’re identifying which players have already experienced the largest hike or drop in their stock so far over these last couple weeks. We asked our featured pundits to give you the lowdown on the most prominent risers and fallers you should be aware of heading into this week’s games.
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Q1. With the preseason midway complete, what player is moving up your rankings the most?
Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF)
“It was initially hard to buy the idea of 5-9, 180-pound Goodwin as the 49ers’ primary receiver, even if he tried that role on for size late last season when Pierre Garcon was out. I’m buying it now. Camp reports have been glowing, and the chemistry between Goodwin and QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been evident in the preseason. Goodwin can fly, and he’s more than just a 9-route guy. I had Goodwin ranked as a WR4 a few months ago, but now he’s bucking for WR2 status.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)
Chris Hogan (WR – NE)
“It’s got to be Hogan, as it’s shocking that most haven’t moved him up higher than he currently is. What separates him and someone like Demaryius Thomas? With all the players being released/cut/suspended/injured from the Patriots roster, someone other than Rob Gronkowski needs to step up. I’ve started drafting Hogan at the end of the fourth round/beginning of the fifth round as Tom Brady’s No. 1 target among wide receivers.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
James White (RB – NE)
“I’m as scared of the Patriots running back situation as the next guy, but I’ve been ticking up White constantly this offseason. The departures of Danny Amendola (86), Brandin Cooks (114), and Dion Lewis (35) opened up 235 targets in the Patriots offense, and that’s before factoring in Julian Edelman missing four games in 2018. Plus, there hasn’t been any positive news around rookie Sony Michel’s knee situation. White impressed in the second preseason game against the Eagles with four carries for 31 yards on the ground and six receptions for 61 yards and a score through the air. White’s involvement as a rusher and receiver should continue through the regular season.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)
Jeremy McNichols (RB – SF)
“All of the sudden, McNichols has gone from being a fantasy non-factor to an intriguing handcuff option. He was a stud producer in college, both on the ground and through the air, with 53 touchdowns and almost 4,300 combined yards from scrimmage across his final two seasons at Boise State. McNichols couldn’t put it together as a rookie with the Buccaneers, but the 49ers gave him a second chance, and now he’s running with their first team in the wake of injuries to Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida. Even if the incumbents get healthy in time for Week 1, you won’t have paid much to draft McNichols, so you won’t feel bad cutting him and moving on if a more interesting upside option presents itself.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
Jonathan Williams (RB – NO)
“At no point should we have assumed that Alvin Kamara would absorb Mark Ingram’s workload during the first month of the season, but an expected spike in touches is safe to project, which is why Kamara is a top-five RB on most people’s board. It’s becoming more and more evident that Williams has emerged as the clear Ingram replacement in September. I’m not breaking any news by saying Sean Payton and company have not been the biggest Mark Ingram fans over the years, and his suspension combined with skipping offseason workouts are unlikely to improve things.
The Saints just released Terrance West, and Williams is a talented runner who flashed against elite competition in college while at Arkansas. The schedule sets up favorably as well, with home games against Tampa Bay and Cleveland in Weeks 1 and 2. If Williams shines early running behind one of the premier offensive lines in the league, he’s unlikely to completely fall into the fantasy abyss when Ingram returns.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)
Q2. What player is sliding down your rankings the most and why?
Ronald Jones (RB – TB)
“Jones was initially a low RB2/high RB3 for me based on apparent opportunity and NFL draft capital, but he hasn’t done himself any favors this offseason. In addition to the head coach naming Peyton Barber the starter, reports have come out that Jones having trouble in pass protection, and he’s posted a whopping 11 yards on 12 carries through two preseason games. He’s now firmly entrenched in my “likely backups that could possibly break through, but probably not” category (RB45 or so), and he’ll stay there unless something drastically changes in the next few weeks.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)
“Heading into the draft, I thought Tampa Bay was the best landing spot for a rookie running back, and it was clear that they’d address the position in the first few rounds. Then they went and took the running back that I liked the least out of the consensus top group, Ronald Jones. It’s a bit early for a victory lap, but Jones has done little to dispell the concerns I had back in April.
He’s the same height and weight of Christian McCaffrey, but he’s slower, has shown zero skills as a receiver while at USC, and is a bit undersized to plow through the pile for 20+ touches per game. In our game though, skill matters less than opportunity, so I tried not to be anchored to my pre-draft thoughts and ranked Jones accordingly. His struggles through practice and the preseason along with the evident early-down emergence of Barber have me once again burying Jones in my rankings.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)
“Politicians and used-car salesmen are jealous of Pete Carroll’s verbal misdirection skills, so it seemed like no big deal when “Perfidious Pete” talked up Chris Carson in training camp despite Seattle’s first-round selection of Penny. However, Carson has remained Carroll’s favorite son in training camp, Penny broke a finger and hadn’t played in the preseason, and now it’s being reported that Penny weighs a husky 236 pounds, 16 pounds more than his combine weight. If the Seahawks had broken camp with Penny in the workhorse role we all figured he’d inherit — silly us, thinking the expenditure of first-round draft capital on a running back meant he’d play a lot — he would have been a third-round draft value. Now? I wouldn’t touch him before the sixth or seventh round.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)
DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
“I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I’m proud of this one, but Parker has been sliding down my rankings the longer he’s out of the lineup. Before suffering his broken finger, Parker was a top-30 wide receiver in my rankings, but he’s now fallen to the WR40 range, which still makes him a value compared to his ADP, but him allowing Albert Wilson to make an impression is never a good thing. I still believe Parker is the only one on that roster who can total more than 120 targets, so he’s worth the risk, but he’s no longer a sure thing for me.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
“I have very little interest left in Mack at this point in the preseason. Hamstring injuries have a nasty habit of lingering, which worries me for a player like Mack, whose game is built on speed. Meanwhile, indications all offseason have pointed toward the Colts employing a committee at running back, and even if Mack remains the workload leader, I’m skeptical his boom-or-bust type of production will translate to predictable usability in fantasy.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
Thank you to the experts for naming their risers and fallers during the preseason. You can follow them on Twitter for additional advice.