2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: No. 2 quarterbacks with No. 1 upside for this year

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It seems every year there are always several quarterbacks who come out of nowhere to finish as No. 1 options. That will likely be the case this year as well.

In 2017, six of the top 12 quarterbacks were not drafted as starters based on Average Draft Position, including Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. In 2016, it was five of the top 12 guys, including Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Prescott, Stafford and Jameis Winston. We could go on and on throughout the years.

For those of you who like to wait for a quarterback on Draft Day, you'd like to find the group of passers ready to accomplish this feat in 2018. We all would.

But while it's not ideal to enter the season with a less than stellar quarterback situation, there are ways to identify No. 2 passers with No. 1 upside. And these are potentially the late-round picks who could help you win your league.

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You've heard it ad nauseum by now that quarterback is a deep position this year, and I can make a case for about 20 guys who I would be comfortable starting in Week 1. Your list might be even longer, and we're going to look for the backup quarterbacks who could outperform their draft position here.

In comparing my quarterback rankings to the current ADP at the position, there are 11 players who match: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Wentz, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Cousins and Stafford.

Since those appear to be the safe quarterbacks heading into this season, we'll look at my rankings from No. 12-32 to see what could happen to help them finish as a starting option this year. These are the quarterbacks you will love if you prefer to wait for the position on Draft Day.

No. 12

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 75 percent
• What could go right: Mahomes replaces the departed Alex Smith and gets to play for Andy Reid, which has been a great situation for quarterbacks (see Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Smith), and Mahomes should be next. He has a potentially great receiving corps with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt, and he should be good running the ball as well since he had 848 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns in college.
• What could go wrong: Mahomes could look like a first-year starter and struggle in the spotlight. I don't expect that to happen, but expectations vs. reality don't always mesh. Also, he could look good in the preseason, which could push up his ADP, and then he becomes a bust candidate if he falters.
• Bottom line: Mahomes is currently being drafted as the No. 13 quarterback off the board, and his ADP is Round 9. I expect him to climb higher than that – maybe past Cousins or Stafford – and I might rank it that way as well. He's one of my favorite breakout candidates this season, and I expect him to be a No. 1 quarterback this year.

No. 13

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 70 percent
• What could go right: Garoppolo picks up where last season ended when he went 5-0 as a starter for the 49ers and averaged 308 passing yards per game and scored at least 19 Fantasy points in three of those outings. He should improve with a full offseason with coach Kyle Shanahan and gets No. 1 receiver Pierre Garcon (neck) back on the field.
• What could go wrong: The production doesn't match the hype. While he was good for three games as a Fantasy option, he also had two games where he averaged just 13 Fantasy points. Garcon helps this receiving corps, which also features Marquise Goodwin, George Kittle and Jerick McKinnon, but it's not exactly a dominant group.
• Bottom line: Garoppolo is worth drafting as a low-end starting option. His ADP is a little risky as the No. 9 quarterback off the board in Round 7, but I still like him as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this year. However, I would only draft him in Round 9 or later.

No. 14

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 65 percent
• What could go right: Ryan rebounds from a down season in 2017 and plays like his MVP form of 2016. He gets a new weapon in rookie receiver Calvin Ridley and improved play from Julio Jones, who scored just three touchdowns last year.
• What could go wrong: Ryan continues to struggle in offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's system, and Jones is a holdout throughout training camp because of his contract. Ryan cannot rebound if Jones doesn't have another big year, especially when it comes to being better in the end zone.
• Bottom line: Ryan has a good track record in his second year with an offensive coordinator, going back to his sophomore season in 2009 with Mike Mularkey and his MVP campaign in 2016 with Shanahan. Hopefully the same thing happens with Sarkisian. I'm confident in Ryan rebounding, and I love his value in Round 10 as the No. 15 quarterback based on ADP.

No. 15

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 60 percent
• What could go right: Manning gets Odell Beckham (leg) back at 100 percent, and Sterling Shepard is healthy for all 16 games. Saquon Barkley is the real deal, and the offensive line improvements come through with left tackle Nate Solder and rookie left guard Will Hernandez. Evan Engram also picks up where his rookie season ended.
• What could go wrong: He looks like an old quarterback at 37, the offensive line is still a mess and Beckham's return doesn't boost Manning's production. Barkley also could make this a running team, and Manning may just remain a poor Fantasy quarterback.
• Bottom line: I'm expecting Beckham's return to help Manning bounce back in a big way. In three full seasons with Beckham (2014-16), Manning has averaged 4,291 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Add in Shepard, Engram and Barkley, along with an improved offensive line, and Manning is a steal at his ADP, which is Round 13 as the No. 25 quarterback off the board.

No. 16

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 60 percent
• What could go right: Rivers just does what he's been doing of late, which continue to outperform his draft value. He's been a top 10 Fantasy quarterback the past two seasons, but he never gets selected in that range. He's one of the best quarterbacks to wait for on Draft Day.
• What could go wrong: We'll see if the Chargers sign Antonio Gates – not that he's a savior – but they might miss Hunter Henry (torn ACL). Rivers also needs a better season from second-year receiver Mike Williams, who was a bust as a rookie in 2017. Keenan Allen also must stay healthy.
• Bottom line: Rivers should continue to play well, and he should be good enough to start on a weekly basis. He's not sexy like Mahomes or Garoppolo, but he's safe. So if you want to wait for Rivers based on his ADP at Round 11 as the No. 22 quarterback off the board then you should be in great shape.

No. 17

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 55 percent
• What could go right: Goff showed last season that he can be a top 10 Fantasy quarterback, and the Rams gave him a new weapon in Brandin Cooks, who should be an upgrade over Sammy Watkins. Along with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley, this should be an explosive receiving corps to help Goff thrive  again.
• What could go wrong: The reason Goff is in this range is because despite his success last season, he was just No. 18 in pass attempts, and I don't expect that number to rise dramatically. Gurley will again dominate the offense, and the Rams defense should be among the best in the NFL.
• Bottom line: Goff is still worth using as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, but don't reach for him on Draft Day. His ADP is the No. 14 quarterback in Round 10, and I would only draft him with a double-digit pick in one-quarterback leagues.

No. 18

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 55 percent
• What could go right: Winston returns from his three-game suspension and plays like he did last season. Based on his 11 healthy games – he dealt with a nagging shoulder injury last season – he was on pace to lead the NFL in passing yards. Winston gets better production from No. 1 receiver Mike Evans.
• What could go wrong: It's tough to justify drafting Winston as anything more than a late-round flier because not only does he miss three games, but the Buccaneers also have a bye in Week 5. So you don't really get Winston in full until Week 6.
• Bottom line: I love Winston's upside in this offense, and I hope he comes back from the suspension better than ever. He's a great late-round flier given his ADP in Round 11 as the No. 21 quarterback off the board, and if you can justify carrying two quarterbacks then he's worth that minimal investment.

No. 19

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 50 percent
• What could go right: Mariota returns to his 2016 form when he scored at least 20 Fantasy points in nine of the 14 games he was able to finish. He thrives in new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur's offense, and No. 1 receiver Corey Davis has a breakout campaign in his second year.
• What could go wrong: Mariota continues to struggle as he did last season when he scored at least 20 Fantasy points just three times but had 16 points or less nine times. Davis doesn't improve, and Mariota looks like a game manager and not a star.
• Bottom line: I'm confident in Mariota improving because of Davis and LaFleur. He was the quarterbacks coach for Ryan during his MVP season in 2016 in Atlanta and with Goff last year with the Rams. And Davis could give Mariota a weapon that he's never had before. Mariota's ADP is Round 11 as the No. 20 quarterback off the board, and he's a good player to stash in case this is his breakout campaign.

No. 20

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 50 percent
• What could go right: Like Mariota, Carr returns to his 2016 form when he had nine games with at least 20 Fantasy points before suffering a broken leg in Week 16. He improves under new coach Jon Gruden, and Amari Cooper also has a bounce-back campaign. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant also prove to be great complementary weapons.
• What could go wrong: Cooper struggles again, Nelson continues to look old and Bryant never takes the next step in his career. Carr was bad in 2017 with just five games with at least 20 Fantasy points compared to nine with 16 points or less, and he continues to look like that mediocre quarterback.
• Bottom line: Gruden should help Carr improve from last season, and he was also hampered by a back injury, which hindered his play. If Cooper is back to his pre-2017 form, along with Nelson and Bryant doing anything of significance, then Carr will easily outperform his ADP (Round 11 as the No. 23 quarterback) and where I have him ranked.

No. 21

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 45 percent
  
• What could go right: Smith goes to Washington and plays just as he did for Kansas City last season when he was the No. 5 Fantasy quarterback. He replaces Cousins, who was a top 10 Fantasy quarterback each of the past three seasons, and Smith gets a healthy Jordan Reed (toe) for at least 13 games, as well as a breakout season from third-year receiver Josh Doctson.
• What could go wrong: Smith doesn't have the motivation of playing for his job with a young stud behind him as he did with the Chiefs in Mahomes, and he reverts back to his mediocre Fantasy ways. He doesn't get a healthy Reed for much of the season, and Doctson still struggles.
• Bottom line: I'm fine with Smith at his current ADP as the No. 18 quarterback in Round 11, but I don't see much upside with him going to Washington. Sure, he played well last year for the Chiefs, and Cousins has done fine in this system. But Smith was never a great Fantasy quarterback prior to 2017, and I expect his production to decline this year.

No. 22

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 45 percent
• What could go right: Trubisky becomes this year's Goff, and a new coach (Matt Nagy) and improved weapons (Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel) help him make a huge second-year leap.
• What could go wrong: The offseason reports on Trubisky haven't been great, and he continues to struggle in the season. Robinson doesn't rebound to the level he was at before his torn ACL last year, and this receiving corps proves to be mediocre.
• Bottom line: I'm buying in to Nagy turning things around for Trubisky, and I expect his weapons to help him improve dramatically in Year 2. Does that mean he'll play like Goff and finish as a top-10 quarterback in his second year? That's doubtful. But there is upside with a late-round pick, and his ADP is Round 11 as the No. 19 quarterback off the board.

No. 23

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 45 percent
• What could go right: Prescott proves he doesn't miss Dez Bryant or Jason Witten, and he plays as did in 2017 when Ezekiel Elliott was on the field. Prior to Elliott's suspension, Prescott averaged 24.5 Fantasy points a game. Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and likely tight end Blake Jarwin perform better than Bryant and Witten did last season.
• What could go wrong: When Elliott got suspended, things fell apart for Prescott, and he averaged 12.8 Fantasy points during the six games Elliott was out. While Bryant and Witten weren't elite last year, they were proven, and the Cowboys have to replace 132 catches for 1,398 yards and 11 touchdowns with them gone.
• Bottom line: Prescott was a top 12 Fantasy quarterback in 2017, but now he's become a bargain on Draft Day given his price tag in Round 10 as the No. 16 passer off the board. I think the Cowboys receiving corps will make up for the loss of Bryant and Witten, especially if Gallup, Hurns and Jarwin all perform well, and the Dallas run game and offensive line give Prescott an advantage. He's also a productive rushing quarterback with 639 yards and 12 touchdowns over two years, so that's an added boost to his value.

No. 24

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 40 percent
• What could go right: Taylor starts all 16 games and keeps rookie No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield on the bench. Josh Gordon plays 16 games, and Taylor takes advantage of offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system.
• What could go wrong: Taylor struggles early in the season, Mayfield takes over and Taylor doesn't see the field again. Gordon misses significant time. The Browns offense is again mediocre.
• Bottom line: Taylor has the chance to be a standout Fantasy quarterback if he plays most of the season, but we don't know when Mayfield will get on the field. Taylor also needs Gordon on his side to make this receiving corps thrive. He's a good late-round flier, but he's also someone you might cut early in the season if Mayfield replaces him as the starter in Cleveland.

No. 25

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 35 percent
• What could go right: Dalton gets improved play from his offensive line, and John Ross and Tyler Eifert are healthy for 16 games. Dalton has been good when he's had multiple receiving threats play at a high level, but that hasn't happened since 2015.
• What could go wrong: Eifert and Ross continue to battle injuries, and Dalton doesn't get help alongside A.J. Green. The Bengals struggle and decide to bench Dalton during the season.
• Bottom line: Dalton can still be a productive Fantasy quarterback, but it's hard to trust him given all the other options at the position. There will likely be a time during the year where Dalton becomes a viable starter in most Fantasy leagues, but he's not worth drafting in most one-quarterback formats.

No. 26

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 35 percent
• What could go right: Keenum goes from a good situation in Minnesota to a similar one in Denver because of the weapons for the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. He plays like he did in 2016 when Keenum was the No. 14 Fantasy quarterback. Jake Butt becomes a significant contributor.
• What could go wrong: Keenum played a career-best 15 games in 2017, and hopefully he stays healthy. He's also never been in this situation before where he was considered a guaranteed starter without competition, so hopefully he handles it well.
• Bottom line: Keenum has good talent around him, especially if Butt plays well, and he could finish as a top 15 Fantasy quarterback again. But you don't have to draft him that high, and he's only a late-round flier. Keenum will likely only be drafted in two-quarterback leagues.

No. 27

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 35 percent
• What could go right: Bortles was the No. 13 Fantasy quarterback last year, and he's been a top 15 quarterback for each of the past three seasons, so he's capable of being productive once again. His inexperienced receiving corps plays better than expected, with Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook leading the way, along with new tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
• What could go wrong: Bortles just doesn't inspire much confidence, especially with the receivers he's expected to depend on. Leonard Fournette should dominate this offense, and the Jaguars are once again going to have a dominant defense. We shouldn't expect many comeback efforts from Bortles in 2018.
• Bottom line: Bortles will likely only be drafted in two-quarterback leagues, but his track record the past three seasons is worth considering. Cole is a sleeper for this receiving corps, and Lee, Moncrief and Seferian-Jenkins have the chance to make plenty of plays. Bortles could have another surprise campaign this year.

No. 28

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 30 percent
• What could go right: He returns at 100 percent after missing the 2017 season with a knee injury and plays like he did toward the end of 2016 before first getting hurt. The Dolphins don't miss Jarvis Landry, and the new receiving corps, especially DeVante Parker, has a big year.
• What could go wrong: Tannehill continues to be mired in mediocrity, and the loss of Landry is big because Parker, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson all struggle. Tannehill also could suffer a setback with his knee.
• Bottom line: Tannehill scored at least 22 Fantasy points in three of his final five games in 2016 before he hurt his knee against Arizona in Week 14, and he finally looked comfortable in Adam Gase's offense. Even without Landry, this receiving corps has potential, but no one is guaranteed to produce at a high level. Tannehill is more of a Fantasy option for two-quarterback leagues.

No. 29

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 30 percent
• What could go right: He repeats what happened to Smith last season in Kansas City when he had a big year after the Chiefs drafted Mahomes. Maybe Flacco follows suit knowing Lamar Jackson is waiting in the wings. New receiving options Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Willie Snead and Hayden Hurst all have a big year.
• What could go wrong: Flacco struggles and is replaced by Jackson. It's that simple.
• Bottom line: No one is trusting Flacco because of the threat of Jackson, but the same thing happened with Smith prior to last season. If the receiving corps plays well, and Flacco doesn't get benched, he could have a top 15 Fantasy finish. That said, he's only worth a late-round flier in two-quarterback leagues.

No. 30

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 25 percent
• What could go right: Taylor struggles, and Mayfield gets the chance to start for most of the year. If he plays more than half the season, then it's a successful campaign for the No. 1 overall pick, and Fantasy owners will benefit.  
• What could go wrong: Taylor plays 13 plus games. Mayfield needs to play to help Fantasy owners.
• Bottom line: It's doubtful Mayfield will get drafted in anything more than dynasty leagues and two-quarterback formats. He could become a good waiver wire addition, but his fate is tied to Taylor.

No. 31

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 25 percent
• What could go right: Rosen wins the Cardinals starting job in training camp ahead of Sam Bradford, and he gets the chance to start most of the season. Like Mayfield, the amount of games played will determine his Fantasy value, but he might have the best chance of all the rookie quarterbacks to play the most games in 2018.
• What could go wrong: Bradford starts most of the season for the Cardinals, and Rosen remains on the bench.
• Bottom line: Rosen will likely only get drafted in two-quarterback leagues and dynasty formats, but it's doubtful Bradford starts all season given his injury history. Rosen could move up these rankings if he wins the starting job in Arizona for Week 1.

No. 32

• Chances of becoming a No. 1 quarterback: 25 percent
• What could go right: The Ravens realize Jackson is the superior talent to Flacco and let him start games early in the season.
• What could go wrong: Jackson only plays in sub-packages along with Flacco, and Jackson doesn't get the chance to start any games at quarterback as a rookie.
• Bottom line: The Ravens appear committed to Flacco, which limits the upside for Jackson in 2018 beyond dynasty formats and deep two-quarterback leagues. That said, he could be a Fantasy lottery ticket in all formats if he gets to start even a handful of games this season.