2020 NFL Draft: Buying or Selling the Latest Mock Draft Trends

With the 2020 NFL draft less than a week away, the first-round picture is beginning to come into focus—or is it?

While the first couple of selections appear set—LSU's Joe Burrow and Ohio State's Chase Young at Nos. 1 and 2—things are muddled after that. Draft analysts differ on what teams could, should and are going to do.

Mock drafts vary greatly, but some trends have emerged. Here, we'll examine some expert mocks from around the web and the latest trends they project—determining whether they appear based in reality or exist as the product of proverbial draft smokescreens.

Let's dig in.

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Mocks From: Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

This is the big trend that has emerged as the draft has drawn closer. Several signs have pointed to the Miami Dolphins' favoring Oregon's Justin Herbert over Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, and many mock drafts reflect that.

Either Herbert or Tagovailoa is expected to be the second signal-caller off the board after Burrow.

Tagovailoa's injury concerns seem to be at the root of this trend. The Crimson Tide standout had several notable injuries during his college career—including a dislocated and fractured hip in 2019—which makes him a significant risk.

According to The Athletic's Bob McGinn, at least three teams have taken Tagovailoa off their draft boards.

"There is concern, serious concern, about the durability," one NFC personnel man said, per McGinn. "The ankle, the hip, the size, you name it. It's hard because you can't get your hands on him."

The league's ban on travel and predraft meetings has made it impossible for teams to evaluate Tagovailoa on an individual basis. This could indeed lead quarterback-needy squads such as the Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers to favor the "safer" pick, Herbert.

Verdict: Buy

Mocks from: Miller, Kiper, ESPN's Todd McShay

While the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins are likely to select Burrow and Young, the Detroit Lions (pick No. 3) and New York Giants (No. 4) are unknowns. One or both could trade down so a team such as the Dolphins can get a quarterback. However, Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has no history of moving down in Round 1.

This could be the year when that changes. Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reported Gettleman said "he will very seriously consider trading back for the right offer."

However, plenty of mocks have the Giants staying put and grabbing Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons.

"Gettleman will hear some interesting offers, but because I'm not doing the same with this mock, I'm going with Simmons. Remember, the Giants allowed 28.2 points per game last season, third-worst in the NFL," McShay wrote.

It's worth noting McShay didn't consider trades in his mock. If he did, Simmons might not have been the pick. While the linebacker-safety is an intriguing prospect, he isn't the only defender who could help improve the New York defense.

Trading down and getting Florida cornerback CJ Henderson or LSU pass-rusher K'Lavon Chaisson would make even more sense if the Giants can net additional draft capital. If they don't trade down, an offensive tackle such as Iowa's Tristan Wirfs to protect second-year quarterback Daniel Jones would be a more logical move than gambling on Simmons.

Verdict: Sell

Mocks From: McShay, Kiper, CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso

While Burrow, Herbert and Tagovailoa could all go early in the first round, a fourth quarterback could as well. Opinions vary on Utah State signal-caller Jordan Love, but many experts project he will be one of the first 32 picks.

CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso had Love falling to the New England Patriots at No. 23—and the Patriots feeling fortunate for the happenstance.

"The Patriots may have to trade up for Love, but with him falling into their lap here, they can't pass on him," Trapasso wrote.

Love has all the tools to be an NFL star. However, inconsistent game tape and a lack of impressive 2019 statistics—he threw for 3,402 yards with 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions—make him a risk.

His potential is likely to outweigh the risk for at least one NFL franchise.

"He has the most physical upside of any of these guys," one scout told McGinn. "The great ones make things look easy. He makes it look easy."

Expect Love to hear his name called on the opening night of the draft.

Verdict: Buy

Mocks From: Kiper, Trapasso, NFL.com's Cynthia Frelund

This year's quarterback class is questionable after Burrow. The wide receiver class is loaded. Several future No. 1 wideouts are likely lurking in the prospect pool. The big question is who will be the first selected.

With a week to go, the consensus seems to be that either Alabama's Jerry Jeudy or Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb will be the first pass-catcher off the board. Lamb is 6'2", 198 pounds and a home run hitter, while Jeudy is 6'1", 192 pounds and a route master.

Several experts project at least one team will favor polish over upside. Trepasso mocked the Las Vegas Raiders moving up to No. 10 to secure him.

"Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden get too antsy as they see the receivers drop and swing a deal with Cleveland to get the best separator in the class in Jeudy," Trepasso wrote.

It's not like whichever team drafts Jeudy will give up playmaking ability for NFL readiness. The Crimson Tide standout caught 77 passes for 1,163 yards and 10 touchdowns while playing alongside fellow likely first-round pick Henry Ruggs III in 2019.

"He has more of that superstar potential than anyone," one scout told McGinn.

Jeudy will put that to work as the first receiver drafted.

Verdict: Buy

Mocks From: Kiper, Frelund, NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah

Jeudy and Lamb are almost certainly going to be first-round picks. However, they aren't going to be the only pass-catchers to be selected in the first round. As previously mentioned, this is a very deep receiver class, and the first round is going to reflect that.

Some draft analysts project nearly one-fifth of the picks in the first round will be receivers. Along with Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs, prospects such as LSU's Justin Jefferson and Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk are expected to go in Round 1.

Jeremiah listed Aiyuk as the last first-round receiver off the board, going to the Tennessee Titans at No. 29.

"I love Aiyuk's game, and his toughness would fit the culture in Tennessee," Jeremiah wrote.

While it is possible teams will be crawling over one another to add receivers in the first round, the deep talent pool means they won't have to. Starting-caliber wideouts are likely to be available long after Day 1.

"We think this year that there's a really good chance to get a guy that can probably be a starter for you in the fifth round of the draft," Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said, per Ryan Mink of the team's official website.

First-round picks are valuable. Expect most teams to use theirs on positions that aren't as deep as receiver.

Verdict: Sell

Mocks From: Kiper, Trapasso, Miller

One position that hasn't garnered a ton of first-round buzz is running back. Ball-carriers aren't frequently targeted early, though at least one back has been drafted in the first round in each of the past five years.

Many experts foresee that trend continuing in 2020. Prospects such as Georgia's D'Andre Swift and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor are popular first-round options.

Miller mocked Swift to the Dolphins at No. 26.

"I know Dolphins fans are tired of this; they hate me for it. I'm going to keep doing it," Miller said. "... Jordan Howard's not the answer at running back, fellas. He might be part of the answer, but he is not the answer. ... By the second half of the season, [Swift's] your No. 1 back."

Some draft analysts—Jeremiah for one—projected a running back won't land in the first 32. Given the resurgence of the running game in recent years—with teams such as the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers leading the charge—expect at least one squad to pick a rusher before Day 1 wraps up.

Verdict: Buy

Mocks From: Trapasso, Frelund, CBS Sports' Will Brinson

Make no mistake, there will be plenty of drama remaining as opening night nears its conclusion. One team at the center of it will be the Patriots.

For the first time this century, New England won't enter a regular season with Tom Brady on the roster. He's now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Patriots are left with second-year man Jarrett Stidham and journeyman Brian Hoyer.

Many experts believe Brady's successor will be picked in the first round.

As previously mentioned, Trapasso projected New England will pick Love. Frelund had Herbert falling to the Patriots, while Brinson wrote New England will trade up to No. 16 to grab the Oregon quarterback.

"I don't think we're going to see Bill Belichick give up a future first to move up, not with the questions about this team, but he can get seven spots up for cheaper than that," Brinson noted.

One former Patriot, however, forecast Stidham will be the heir to Brady.

"He had a chance to learn under arguably the greatest quarterback to play the game," Ben Watson told FS1's First Things First (h/t Elio Velez of the New York Post).

"He soaked that in for a year. Patriots fans should be confident that he wouldn't be in that room if Coach Belichick didn't think he could help the team."

Expect the Patriots to give Stidham an opportunity to start this season and possibly add a quarterback in a later round to compete with him.

Verdict: Sell