NP View: The credibility of Notley and Trudeau's 'social licence' has been vaporized

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The court, evidently, does not recognize social licences.

In a late-week bombshell, the Federal Court of Appeal ruled that plans to expand the capacity of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which would move Alberta oil to the B.C. coast for export via tanker to global markets, could not proceed. The federal government’s “consultation” process with First Nations along the proposed route was, once again, insufficient, nor had regulators properly considered the potentially adverse impact on sea life of increased tanker traffic in coastal waters.

For Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, this is a disaster. Not just because this is yet another setback for her province’s efforts to get its valuable exports to markets where they can get a fairer price than the U.S. discount. But especially because this has destroyed the notion — had anyone still believed it — that “social licence” matters anywhere but the cocktail-party circuit in Edmonton and Ottawa.

Both Alberta and Canada spent dearly on what they believed were social licences. Alberta’s NDP imposed a carbon tax and put caps on the growth of its most vital industry. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau then announced a carbon tax for the entire country (although he’s been unable to convince the provinces to co-operate). This, along with more thorough consultation with Indigenous groups, was supposed to be the secret recipe for getting a pipeline built — any pipeline. The strategy flopped. Notley stuck Albertans with a social-licence fee for nothing. She has now said she will refuse to hike her $30-a-tonne carbon tax to the federal Liberals’ eventual $50-a-tonne federal “climate plan” minimum — at least until Ottawa figures out how to get at least one, single pipeline through.

There’s irony in that. She’s protesting not by removing a tax imposed in pursuit of a futile goal, but instead continuing to impose a futile tax while simply keeping the money for her own use. Some protest.

A further irony — you couldn’t make this is up — is that the very day the court announced that it was suspending construction on the pipeline is the day that the Kinder Morgan shareholders voted almost unanimously to sell the pipeline to the Canadian government for a cool $4.5 billion. This was Ottawa’s latest brainwave for solving the pipeline impasse: Buy one and insist you’ll get it done, lest international investors conclude Canada is closed for business.

Well, the first worked: we own the pipeline. But we can no longer build it. Now the federal government has to figure out what it’s going to do. It’s insufficient to note that its credibility, and what’s left of Notley’s, hangs in the balance. Our economic prosperity does, too. Canada can build pipelines or it can’t. If it can’t, our economic future and political credibility is shot. This is an existential issue for Canada: are we capable of getting essential projects done or not?

It’s ridiculous that such a question even needs to be asked. And it’s appalling that the answer increasingly appears to be “no.”