Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours, but suggested it may be nearing the outbreak’s peak as scientists continue to question the government’s light-touch approach.
The Public Health Agency announced a death toll of 1,203 people from Covid-19 on Wednesday, a rate of 118 per million inhabitants, compared with 55 in Denmark and just 13 in Finland, both of which imposed strict early lockdowns to curb the virus’s spread.
Sweden’s per-million tally is also significantly higher than the 42 recorded in Germany – but remains lower than the UK’s rate of 182 (as of Tuesday) and far below Italy’s 349 and Spain’s 399.
Anders Wallensten, the deputy chief epidemiologist, said the number of new Covid-19 cases was starting to decline and he was “cautiously positive” Sweden was approaching the peak. Officials said the health system was coping.
Polling suggests many Swedes continue to support the government’s strategy, which has entailed urging citizens to take personal responsibility for following physical distancing guidelines rather than strictly enforcing mandatory rules.
While authorities have closed senior high schools and banned gatherings of more than 50 people, they have asked – rather than ordered – people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are over 70 or are feeling ill.
Statistics show roughly half the Swedish workforce is now working from home, public transport usage has fallen by 50% in Stockholm and the capital’s streets are about 70% less busy than usual – but Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to class even if a family member is ill.
The government’s refusal to close primary and junior high schools – and authorities’ insistence that only children who are themselves ill may stay at home – has caused some families and teachers particular concern, staff and parent groups have said.
Healthy students who have been kept out of school by anxious parents have been threatened with referral to social services, while concerned families and school staff have written open letters describing the government’s policy as “unacceptable” and arguing that it is “risking the lives of children, relatives and staff”.
In one letter published last week in Aftonbladet newspaper, more than 900 teachers and school staff said it was impossible for schools and daycare facilities to observe physical distancing recommendations, adding that “in many cases” children with infected family members had obeyed instructions to attend school, meaning “we are not able to protect children and educators in at-risk groups”.
Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist, has described the Swedish approach as an attempt to ensure “a slow spread of infection and that the health services are not overwhelmed”, arguing that it is important for a part of the population to acquire immunity.
Tegnell has denied trying to build rapid “herd immunity” to the virus, a strategy originally considered by the UK and the Netherlands before soaring projected death rates prompted those countries to change course.
Some experts have speculated that Sweden’s approach to managing the spread of the virus may also be influenced by its demographic profile – more than 50% of households are single-person – and relatively low population density of about 25 people per square kilometre, compared with, for example, 205 in Italy and 259 in the UK.
Although the longer-term impact is obviously unknown, Sweden’s strategy is not expected to preserve the country’s economy this year any more than those of countries imposing stricter lockdowns: Magdalena Andersson, the finance minister, said on Wednesday GDP could shrink by 10% this year and unemployment rise to 13.5%.
The strategy has also come under fire from some of the country’s scientists. A group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers on Tuesday criticised the health agency in an op-ed published by Dagens Nyheter newspaper.
“The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” the group wrote. “As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Quarantine the whole family if one member is ill or tests positive. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice.”
Tegnell rejected the criticism and disputed the figures on which it was based. He previously said Sweden and its neighbours were on “different places on the curve”, and that Sweden had “unfortunately had a large spread of contagion in care homes for the elderly, something you have not seen in the other Nordic countries”.
The chief epidemiologist has repeatedly stressed that the world is in uncharted territory with the coronavirus, arguing that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection increase that many other countries might face once their strict lockdowns are lifted.