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Mike Vrabel is mirroring Bill Belichick of 10 years ago, and struggles are similar | Estes

Gentry Estes
Nashville Tennessean

Until an upset loss in the playoffs, the 2010 New England Patriots were one of Bill Belichick’s best teams. They won 14 times. They scored more than 32 points a game.

And their defense was terrible on third down — worst in the NFL by a wide margin that season.

When it comes to the 2020 Titans, those Patriots hold an eerie resemblance in that Belichick didn’t have a defensive coordinator. He didn’t name one to replace … get this … Dean Pees, who’d exited the role after four years. Belichick instead took on a larger role himself.

A decade later, former Belichick player Mike Vrabel did the same thing when Pees retired after last season. With the Titans defense struggling at a historic level on third down, that 2010 example looks to be more than just a casual coincidence.

The Patriots were bad on third down in 2010 (opponents converted 47.1% for first downs), but these Titans have been much worse.

They are allowing opposing offenses to convert 61% of its third downs (50 of 82).

It is the worst percentage through six games of any NFL defense since 1991, according to research Tweeted this week by analyst Scott Kacsmar.

In the past 10 years, no NFL defense has finished a season worse than 49.2%. The Titans could get stops on their next 18 third downs in a row and still be at 50%.

The 2010 Patriots, like the Titans so far as well, were an outlier in that the failures to get off the field on third down weren't apparent in the team's win-loss record. That hasn't typically been the case in the NFL.

Since 2010, the nine teams that finished last in the NFL in third-down defense averaged about a 6-10 record. None made the playoffs.

So this problem, unless the Titans find a solution, is poised to spoil an encouraging season. Trouble is, fixing it may not be so easy — or quick.

“I’ve got to give kudos to Coach Pees, who was an exceptional defensive coordinator,” Titans linebacker Rashaan Evans said last week. “Everybody knows that was not a thing that happened overnight.”

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel listens as defensive coordinator Dean Pees announce his retirement from football and the team at the Titans training facility, Saint Thomas Sports Park on Monday, Jan. 20, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn.  The Titans season ended Sunday in the AFC Championship game when they lost 35-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

He’s right. Pees’ defensive scheme was notoriously complex. The coach once explained it as a large amount of installation on the front end to allow more flexibility to adjust each week or perhaps even during games. You see how driving that train wouldn’t be plug and play, even if the Titans chose to renew Pees' work rather than replace it.

When you get beyond the obvious explanations for third-down woes — yes, clearly, the Titans need a more effective pass rush and better coverage — you start hearing about a lack of “communication” on defense.

What does that mean exactly?

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick talks with Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel after a joint training camp practice at Saint Thomas Sports Park Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2019 in Nashville, Tenn.

“All of us know what to do. It’s just about knowing what to do at the right time,” said defensive lineman Jack Crawford. “… Truth is, in practice, we’ve been trying to overcommunicate across 11 guys who are on the field so we can all get on the same page.”

“There’s coordination on this deal. That’s one thing we’ve got to continue to coach,” said outside linebackers coach Shane Bowen, the Titans’ de facto defensive play-caller along with Vrabel.

Who minds that coordination, you wonder, without a coordinator?

Because professional players not being on the same page sounds like a coaching issue — an indictment of X’s and O’s more than Jimmies and Joes.

Experienced defensive backs like Kevin Byard, Kenny Vaccaro and Malcolm Butler didn’t suddenly forget how to cover. Linebackers like Evans and Jayon Brown were good last season. Lineman Jeffery Simmons is a legitimate star on the line.

And with Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley, the defense added a total of about 70 career sacks. Neither, though, has a sack with the Titans yet? 

That these Titans are 5-1 anyway, it really is amazing. It is a credit to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the continued late heroics of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, running back Derrick Henry and others on that side of the ball.

It also has been because of turnovers. With a plus-9 turnover margin, the Titans lead the NFL.

They have been good at times, yes, but they’ve also been lucky. They have been getting by on factors that aren’t sustainable, relying on fortunate bounces and magic in the final moments of games.

Against the Steelers this past weekend, during an especially awful defensive day on third down, the Titans' typical escape act wasn't enough. Odds finally caught up with the Titans, carrying a lesson and a warning.

“We have a great offense,” Simmons said, “but we’ve got to get better on defense, especially on third down.”

Reach Gentry Estes at gestes@tennessean.com and on Twitter @Gentry_Estes.