WO2002103588A2 - System, method and computer program product for risk-minimization and mutual insurance relations in meteorology dependent activities - Google Patents
System, method and computer program product for risk-minimization and mutual insurance relations in meteorology dependent activities Download PDFInfo
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- WO2002103588A2 WO2002103588A2 PCT/IB2002/001014 IB0201014W WO02103588A2 WO 2002103588 A2 WO2002103588 A2 WO 2002103588A2 IB 0201014 W IB0201014 W IB 0201014W WO 02103588 A2 WO02103588 A2 WO 02103588A2
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
- G06Q10/043—Optimisation of two dimensional placement, e.g. cutting of clothes or wood
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q20/00—Payment architectures, schemes or protocols
- G06Q20/08—Payment architectures
- G06Q20/20—Point-of-sale [POS] network systems
- G06Q20/203—Inventory monitoring
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
- G06Q40/03—Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
- G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/90—Financial instruments for climate change mitigation, e.g. environmental taxes, subsidies or financing
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S50/00—Market activities related to the operation of systems integrating technologies related to power network operation or related to communication or information technologies
- Y04S50/12—Billing, invoicing, buying or selling transactions or other related activities, e.g. cost or usage evaluation
Definitions
- the present invention relates to industrial and societal systems and methods whose performance is affected by a dependency on meteorological data, as well as a stochastic nature of variations in Earth's atmosphere-ocean system. More particularly, the present invention relates to computer-based systems, methods and computer program product that aid in minimizing system performance risks due to meteorological influence for all systems, such as renewable power production facilities, that have a final product or service that is influenced by meteorological variation and meteorological prediction error.
- Agricultural activities to include: Harvesting crops; Open-air drying of hay; and Fertilizing periods;
- NORD POOL FINANCIAL MARKETS
- a financial contract period includes price hedging of a certain amount of power during a fixed time period. Participants who assume a purchase or sale position are guaranteed the agreed-upon price for purchase or sale of the equivalent amount of power on Elspot, which is Nord Pool's market for trade in power contracts for physical delivery. The contract price hedges a fixed amount of power, the same for all hours, during the contract period.
- Eltermin contracts There are two main categories of Eltermin contracts: Futures and Forwards. The contract types differ as to how settlement is carried out during the trading period, i.e. until their due date (settlement week). The same profit and risk profile applies, whether one trades in Futures Contracts or Forward Contracts.
- An option is a contract with an asymmetrical risk, which means that different conditions apply for the contracted parties.
- options and financial contracts open up for increased possibilities to distribute and manage risk associated with power trade. The possibility to price hedge and limit risk at the same time is improved.
- Eloptions can be used to "hedge" a power portfolio against a drop or to increase the return of a portfolio. They can also be used to establish a so-called "caps and floor price”. Irrespectively of whether the value of the underlying product increases, drops, or remains constant there are profits to be made.
- Trade may be conducted via Nord Pool's electronic trading system or by bidding via telephone (to the help desk function at Nord Pool). Settlement and delivery are carved out as financial price-hedging settlements without any physical delivery of power. Nord Pool has established a system that allows Clearing Customers to trade and clear Financial Power Contracts through Participants who have been authorized as Trading and Clearing Representatives (brokers).
- Options are financial derivative products that are well suited to markets such as the power market, in which there is volatility and price risk - and thus a need for price hedging.
- Electric power options which are traded on the Nordic Power Exchange's
- Electric power options may be used to secure a power portfolio against price declines or increases, or to increase a portfolio's yield.
- the electric Power options traded at Nord Pool include European-style Power Options (EPO) and Asian-style Power Options (APO).
- EPO European-style Power Options
- APO Asian-style Power Options
- the power options traded at Nord Pool are standardized, and thus governed by pre-determined option contract specifications.
- European-style-exercise power options have underlying instruments
- Asian-style-exercise power options are settled retroactively against the arithmetic average Elspot system price during a specified period.
- Due to market demand electric Power options were introduced at the Nordic Power Exchange. These options represent an important element in the Power Exchange's expanding product line. The standardization that now applies to the types of options that are most liquid in the Nordic power market was a precondition for the introduction of these options. Trade in power options has been included in the Nord Pool financial market since the autumn of 1999.
- Landberg pp 747-749 European Wind Energy Conference 1997) shows that the DMI-Risoe model system (termed WPPT) predicts power output for a wind energy farm with an error less than 10% for ranges between 1-36 hours.
- Landberg pp 1086-1089 European Wind Energy Conference 1999 shows that the mean absolute error of the DMI- Risoe prediction system is 15% of installed capacity (10% for 'good' sites and 20% for
- risk stems from several sources in the energy system.
- wind predictability is the largest source of risk.
- Reducing risk is of interest to several participants, producers, consumers, system operator (TSO) and suppliers of information to the system.
- TSO system operator
- a basic review of financial risk management is in order. Examples of risk management perspectives found in "The J.P. Morgan Arthur Andersen Guide to Corporate Risk Management", 1997, Risk Publications chapter 2, pp7-12.include:
- RM from the investor perspective - Investors seek a risk-adjusted return on capital invested. High risks require a higher return on investments. Reduced risk enables investors to require less return on the same level of investment. Lower risk attracts more investors, therefore a lowered risk through RM is positive for the value of the company.
- Cost of financial distress means the risk of a loss leading to a possible bankruptcy.
- RM is used to minimize the risk of that loss.
- Debt capacity and the cost of debt - RM can ensure that debt can be repaid and interest rates can be paid, despite volatile prices of goods purchased or sold.
- Valuation of risk describes how market movements have affected the value of an asset or a contract (i.e., The Portfolio). Comparing the market price of the asset or contract to the purchase or sales price does this. The result is the current profit or loss of the asset or contract if sold today.
- Measuring risk is a process of assessing risk in which one tries to look forward to how market movements could affect the values of an asset or a contract in the future.
- the methods involve trying to estimate the sensitivity in market value of a portfolio to changes in market prices. Often a probability of the result is used.
- Several methods are used to measure risk:
- Sensitivity analysis the purpose is determine the Portfolio's change in value due to a $ or % change in price of the Portfolio's content. The $ or % change is determined through historical price movements; and
- VaR Market value of position x Position volatility x SQRT (unwind period, the period it takes to close the exposure). VaR takes into correlation the degree to which different market prices move in tandem or not. The following formula takes account of correlation's when measuring combined effects of two risks:
- VaR can also be estimated with a simulation methodology (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) where probability density functions of future prices are used.
- a simulation methodology e.g., Monte Carlo simulation
- PDF probability density function
- An observation is drawn and the market value of the portfolio is calculated.
- Multiple observations are drawn and the possible outcome of the portfolio's value can be described by a pdf. 1000 to several 100000 price observations can be used.
- Risk willingness is also another factor in risk management. Better data improves risk willingness. When choosing between risk and potential, maximum payoff should be targeted under desired risk level. In figure 15, different points on the efficient front are plotted. It shows the expected payoff increasing and risk decreasing when moving from point 1 to point 2, possibly through a risk management decision. Moving from point 2 to point 3 gives higher profit at the same risk level, for any one a desirable movement, also through a risk management decision. To move from point 3 to 4, there is an equal change in payoff and risk, which is desirable for anyone but the risk averse. The risk lover would also appreciate the move from point 4 to 5, because of the increasing payoff, even though there is an even more increasing risk.
- a specific feature of the invention is a system for risk handling and assuring partners in a power production system that the contracted power will in fact be delivered on schedule and in the appropriate quantity despite the fact that the output from the renewable power production facility is subject to meteorologically-induced variations, and meteorological forecast's have an inherent range of error. Because the present invention addresses the risks of failing to reliably deliver power as scheduled or predicted at predetermined production levels, renewable power production facilities may find much more significant penetration in the power generation and delivery market.
- a feature of this invention is that it includes a system for trading electrical power produced from renewable energy power production facilities as premier power with an enhanced commercial value due to the power from the renewable facility being as fungible as other sources of power produced by fossil fuel power plants, hydroelectric plants, nuclear plants and the like. By minimizing financial and contractual risk in producing and marketing power from renewable power generation systems, the invention complements the inventive system and method of U.S. Patent Application Serial. No. 09/749,999, cited above, which includes at least the following features:
- mechanisms including sensor arrays, for forecasting an electric power output from at least one renewable energy power production facility for delivery at a predetermined future; • mechanisms for enabling a bidding exchange process to be used for selling "premier" power at a predetermined future time;
- U.S . patent application Serial No. 09/749,999 deals with matters that are associated to various stakeholders in businesses surrounding power production, like electrical power producers, electrical power grid companies, meteorological institutes, electrical power equipment manufacturers, energy exchange operators, and the like. There is, however, a non-negligible risk associated with the steps of translating meteorological forecasting to actual fluctuations in electrical power produced from renewable power plant facilities and applied to the (trans)national power grids.
- the invention of virtual energy storage and the xM and its prime mover option, discussed in U.S. Patent application Serial No. 09/749,999 takes significant steps to reducing this risk. The present invention further suppresses the risk.
- the present invention employs a computer-based system, method and computer program product for receiving both forecast data and combining that data with power production capacities of various renewable power generation sources.
- the renewable facility is a wind turbine power production facility, although the invention is applicable for other types of renewable power sources, as well as other types of systems and methods (like those discussed above) that must deal with imperfect meteorological forecasts.
- the system and method according to the present invention includes a mechanism for combining the forecast data, as well as statistical indications regarding a range of variability to be expected from the forecast, and combining the same with the expected power output capacities of the renewable facility.
- This variability then may be used to estimate a range of variability, which may be expressed in a probability density function, pdf, to assess a likelihood that a specific quantity of power will be delivered at a given time in the future.
- a range of variability which may be expressed in a probability density function, pdf, to assess a likelihood that a specific quantity of power will be delivered at a given time in the future.
- pdf probability density function
- the more forward looking the forecast the greater the variance in the prediction, thus the greater the spread of the pdf.
- estimates may be made with various confidence levels, regarding the likelihood of being able to deliver a predetermined amount of power at a predetermined future time.
- This data may either be marketed to various market actors (often investors) in the power generation and delivery business, but also may be provided as an investment instrument having its own market value.
- Figure 1 is an activity diagram, showing respected interactions between different entities involved in producing, trading, distributing and consuming power produced from various power production facilities;
- Figure 2 is a block diagram of a system that may be employed according to the present invention, that includes a risk minimization and insurance mechanism according to the present invention
- Figure 3 is a block diagram showing features of the risk mimmization and insurance mechanism of Figure 2;
- Figure 4 is a flow chart describing a process flow according to the present invention, for providing forecasts and reports, including monetary values associated with power production affected by the forecasts, to a requesting party;
- Figure 5 is a flow chart of a process flow according to the present invention regarding activities leading from an energy production forecast and trading of the energy, as well as possible back-up delivery options according to the present invention
- Figure 6 is a flow chart of a process according to the present invention that describes a chain of activities leading from a power production forecast including an assessment of how possible forecasting errors may effect actions by grid operators in order to maintain an appropriate grid balance;
- Figure 7 is a flow chart according to the present invention, and describes a process flow for associating forecasting risks with monetary values of quantities of energy produced at predetermined future periods of time and a logic flow for adjusting an action in the event that respective price or production levels are above or below certain predetermined thresholds;
- Figure 8 is a probability density function diagram, showing how certain power outputs from renewable facilities, as forecast according to meteorological data, known to include errors, and how different probability levels within the probability density function, may be used as triggering mechanisms for triggering certain actions taken by actors in the power market;
- Figure 9 is an exemplary power curve of wind turbine output (kW) versus windspeed (m/s) for a wind turbine facility
- Figure 10 is a process flow diagram showing how a power prediction may be performed according to the present invention
- Figure 11 is a graph showing how energy production and associated deviations may be employed to support virtual energy storage options, and how pricing of these options may be affected;
- Figure 12 is a chart showing how an actor may choose to trade a volume that is in a range from below to above the sum of available renewable production;
- Figure 13 is a chart showing how an actual power production/consumption level may deviate from what has been settled at the power exchange;
- Figure 14 is a chart showing how historical information regarding meteorological conditions, trading blocks (including delivery records) and transmission capacities may be fused in a data mining operation for supporting various end-uses;
- Figure 15 is a plot of risk willingness relating risk to potential payoff;
- Figure 16 is a chart showing factors used in calculating wind farm risks in options trading and virtual energy storage operations;
- Figure 17 is a chart showing factors used in calculating hydro risks in options trading and virtual energy storage operations
- Figure 18 is a chart showing operations of a power exchange options market
- Figure 19 is a chart showing operations of a power exchange bilateral options market
- Figure 20 is a chart showing a wind farm perspective in a power exchange options market operations
- Figure 21 is a chart showing a wind farm perspective in a power exchange bilateral options market operations
- Figure 22 is a chart showing a hydro perspective in a power exchange options market operations.
- Figure 23 is a chart showing a hydro perspective in a power exchange bilateral options market operations.
- Figure 1 is a diagram that shows activities of different actors in power production, power transmission and consumption.
- Actors involved in the power production - transmission - consumption system include investors in facilities, investors in the energy exchange, facility operators, grid operators, power production prediction actors, load prediction actors, coordination consumers, and manufacturers of facilities. Viewing the deregulated energy market as a network of activities, the activities needed on the market may be seen in Figure 1.
- Figure 1 emphasizes the mutual dependency between all actors. These dependencies are valuable for a mature trade of fluctuating renewable power production. The activities are linked by contracts (or more generally agreements) regulating selling and buying power, building production units, trades of financial instruments, etc.
- the present inventors recognized that the contractual and financial instruments themselves, when based on reliable information about present and future power production capabilities, is one component of effective communication between actors.
- the contractual and financial instruments themselves are an instantiation of agreements (sometimes purely financial and other times a hybrid of financial and delivery) between parties, where such agreements, when plentiful enough (according to the law of large numbers) have a stabilizing effect on the power production market (for example).
- the incentive for the market actors to trade with a fluctuating renewable power production depends on the accuracy of the predictions of the production.
- the uncertainty of the prediction emerges as a key parameter influencing the market price of future power production.
- the uncertainty also influences the monetary value of options to buy, sell and to trade with this production.
- the present invention helps to assuage concerns by actors in the renewable market by creating an insurance-like situation for the actors.
- the market actors are linked to one another in a loop of activities such as prediction/production/backup/storage/ deliver/consume/trade/prediction wherein each investor is insured by commitments signed by the actors.
- the risk handling is taken care of jointly by this insurance-like pool of actors.
- Actors involved in the market trade financial instruments such as production predictions, back-up power delivery contracts, and transmission rights.
- the mismatch between the risk distribution and the capability to bear risks in the above-mentioned group of stakeholders is balanced.
- a win- win-relation is formed for all stakeholders by establishing system, mechanism, methods, business rights and proprietary rights, as well as computer program products according to the present invention.
- the incentive for meteorological parties to engage in a power prediction increases if the chain of activities and business links are formulated such that the financial risk connected to prediction errors is reduced, as is the case with the present invention.
- power production predictions may be marketed as an asset with a monetary value. Similar market approaches may take place in other chains of activities in other businesses areas, such as other renewable energy production sales, e.g. photovoltaic-based energy production and wave energy-based production.
- the prediction themselves form a portfolio that is traded on the market with the monetary values set by the prediction quality, the bid process, the situation, the demand, and the availability of production, as well as by the impact of lost power production.
- the market place for the power production predictions may be closely linked to the energy market place and the predictions traded by similar methods.
- Various forecast periods would naturally have different market values.
- a fruitful business between owners of hydro plants and wind energy producers may for example be formed wherein power production prediction is combined with hydro plant storage capacity and wind farm peak power capability.
- the present invention allows these power producers to join forces and market wind power in a new approach something that the industry recognized is lacking, as explained in Lutz and Welter (pp 508-511, 1999 European Wind Energy Conference).
- the present invention allows trading of power products in a liberalized energy market.
- the invention further describes a scheme for mutual risk handling for the parties involved.
- variable and time frame i.e. forecast length
- variable and time frame issue follows a need for an analysis of the impact of a given prediction error.
- Variables that are of particular interest to renewable power production facilities are: wind speed (magnitude and vertical variation, gusts), wind direction (vertical variation), cloudiness (cloud cover, type of cloud, cloud layer depth, height of layer, radiation absorption and emission), rain, hail or snowfall (rate, particle size, coverage), lightning strokes, (frequency, probability of hit, strength).
- JP07043001, JP04365101, JP56094149, JP56094148, US006098893, US046326931 are other patents somehow related to weather.
- a method for rating of geographical areas with respect to meteorological conditions was described in US patent no. 5,839,113.
- meteorology has played a part of providing predictions and analysis of geophysical data. Users of the information provided are at risk and in need of judging the reliability of the data.
- the meteorological partner in these doings have not been able to guarantee the predictions since the stochastic nature due to the strong non-linearity of the geophysical systems inevitably leads to a certain probability of error in predictions.
- the present invention allows the meteorological partner to take a larger share of the business.
- Figure 2 is much like Figure 5 in US patent application Serial No. 09/749,999 A difference however is the inclusion of a risk . minimization and insurance mechanism 555, which will be discussed in detail following a detailed description of the other elements of Figure 2.
- a renewable energy control center processor 500 includes input/output (I/O) interfaces that connect to communication facilities at a renewable power exchange 507, the power exchange 509 (such as Nord Pool), alternative renewable energy sources such as a hydroelectric plant 511, meteorological data source information as well as service information 513, thermoelectric plants 515 (or other type of electrical generation power plants), third party wind farms 517 as well as a wind farm (which may be a single wind turbine) 503, which includes premier power facilities 505, shown in a form of a co- active converter embodiment.
- Each of these other facilities include communication and control equipment that allow for exchange of information with other parties, and enable control of the respective facilities based on the information exchanged.
- wind farm is used herein as an illustrative term, it should be clear that the invention applies to all types of activity that has a production or service that is affected by short-term stochastic variations.
- wind farm should be construed as a generic term for renewable power production facility that has a short-term stochastic production property.
- the control center processor 500 may also be included in the premier power facilities 505, in an alternative embodiment. Or, alternatively, the processor can be a part of a power exchange's trading and software system.
- the control center processor 500 cooperates with the premier power facilities 505 and hydroelectric plant 511 (or alternatively thermoelectric plant 515 and/or third party wind farm 517) so as to make the electrical output from wind farm 503 a reliable source of electric power.
- the premier power facilities 505, in cooperation with the process 500 includes a capability to ensure that the form of electric power (stability of output waveform, ability to produce or sink reactive power, and provide short circuit power), when coupled with a "virtual energy storage” (VES) facility (hydroelectric plant 511 in this embodiment, although other plants may be used as discussed herein also as virtual energy storage sources as well, which uses others sources of energy reserves to produce electric power, such as heat storage systems, e.g. district heating systems or boiler feedwater systems) is producible in fungible energy units.
- VES virtual energy storage
- the premier power facilities 505 places the output waveform from the wind farm 503 in a suitable form for connection to the power grid, it also includes an adequate short circuit current capability which is used when there is a fault in the grid and significant amount of current is required to trip circuit breakers in this fault mode of operation.
- the premier power facilities 505 also had an ability to provide reactive power to the grid at a position that is near the wind farm 503. The short circuit current capability and reactive power sinking capability being ensured by the premier power facilities 505, which contains a coactive converter.
- the longer-term output power from the wind farm 503 may be made sufficiently predictable and reliable, in a business setting, such that units of the electrical power produced by the wind farm may be "guaranteed" by contractual relationships or other agreements with hydroelectric plant 511, in this example. These agreements are helpful in the event of a wind lull for the wind farm 503, where a control message is dispatched to the hydroelectric plant 511 to provide a compensating amount of electric power to offset the short fall from the wind farm. Using the cooperative arrangement the energy output obligation from the wind farm is achieved by asking the hydroelectric plant 511 to output sufficient power to compensate for the temporary short fall from the wind farm.
- the wind farm requires supplemental power to be produced at the virtual energy storage facility
- the surplus power may be saved in the form of virtual energy at the virtual energy storage facility.
- the stored energy Once stored, the stored energy is completely fungible and may be withdrawn upon request, or possibly even sold to a third party, for use under the control of that third party.
- the stored energy is available as a resource to be converted to electric power at the demand of the wind farm operator, or simply preserved for a longer period of time or sold to a third party.
- the virtual energy storage facility offers the equivalent of a bank account, where the "currency" is chemical or potential or kinetic (rotational) energy.
- VES electrochemical accumulators
- CAES compressed air energy storage
- kinetic energy kinetic energy
- hydrogen storage units chemical energy, e.g., with hydrolysis and fuel cells
- heat storage systems such as district heating systems or boiler feedwater systems, or the like
- these arrangements and procedures reduce the risk associated with all financial instruments, contractual obligations, etc. on their physical delivery as units of electrical energy to a specified regional grid area from distant, fungible renewable power plant facilities.
- this generally simplifies system operation of the (trans-)national power grids, e.g., incorporating electrical power business activities dependent on meteorological information like the prediction methods and mechanisms described herein.
- the water reserve held at the hydroelectric plant may be used as a virtual energy storage facility for the wind farm 503. More particularly, in the event of over capacity production by the wind farm 503, the premier power facilities 505 communicates this condition to the control center processor 500, which sends a message to the hydroelectric plant 511, requesting that the hydroelectric plant 511 produce a corresponding lesser amount of electric power during this period of overproduction.
- the total output power from both the wind farm 503 and the hydroelectric plant 511 is thus held to be consistent with the aggregate delivery requirement for both the hydroelectric plant 511 and wind farm 503.
- the wind farm 503 and the hydroelectric plant have certain contractual obligations to produce predetermined amounts of power.
- This predetermined amount of power in the aggregate will equal a certain level of power.
- the wind farm 503 does not have precise control over the amount of power it produces at any given instant in time, by communicating from the wind farm 503 to the hydroelectric plant the amount of overproduction, the hydroelectric plant 511 can adjust its output level so as to compensate for the surplus.
- the wind farm 503 may communicate to the hydroelectric plant the amount of extra power that the hydroelectric plant will need to generate in order to compensate for the shortfall by the wind farm 503.
- the hydroelectric plant 511 will thus be able to save a predetermined amount of its water reserve for use or sale (or transferred or traded) at a later time.
- This amount of water (or electrical equivalent) is in a bilateral options market held on account for the wind farm 503 for use at a later time, and in the case of a PX options market it will be available for later trading (e.g., in a bilateral options market or a PX options markets, to be described below).
- any adjustment made in output power from the wind farm 503 and the hydroelectric plant 511 is communicated to a system operator so that the system operator may also dispatch commands regarding adjustments that may need to be made to reactive power control at the different facilities so as to balance the reactive power loads placed on the grid.
- the wind power park is able to provide the voltage support via the xM (contained in the Power Facilities and described in more detail in U.S. Application Serial No. 09/900,874 cited above) at the wind power park site, and at the hydroelectric plant voltage support is provided by synchronous generators, independent of whether the wind power turbines actually produced active power at the time of delivery.
- the present embodiment is able to provide adequate voltage control, which is able to be kept to within a predetermined voltage limit at the point of common connection.
- connection between the premier power facilities 505, the renewable energy control center processor 500 and the hydroelectric plant 511 may be made by way of an Internet connection, which may use a combination of land-lines, submarine cables, or wireless links such as point to point radio frequency links (e.g., microwave, satellite, MMDS or the like), or a combination thereof.
- Proprietary or leased wired or wireless links may be used as a substitute or to complement the Internet connection or a connection built on the same transmission towers or in the same cable trenches (channels) as used by the power grid to connect the participating production units in the grid.
- the latter connection is preferably a fiber optic connection, such as a part of a communications segment of the grid itself, and/or a broadband network, which could be a part of a national fiber optics communication infrastructure, and be leased (at least in parts) to a third party.
- the communications link between the renewable energy control center processor 500 and the hydroelectric plant 511 includes at least a portion of an Internet connection (the detailed features of which are found in the textbook by Preston Gralla, "How The Internet Works", Que Corporation, ISBN: 0-7897-2132-5, August 1999, the entire contents of which being incorporated herein by reference).
- the control center processor 500 includes a URL that is available for access by the respective wind farm operators and other electric power plant operators so that a Web based graphical interface (e.g., Web browser, such as "EXPLORER” offered by MICROSOFT, and as described in "How Computers Work", by Ron White, Que Corporation, ISBN: 0-7897-2112-0, pps.360-365, Sept. 1999, the entire contents of this book, which is relevant to the hardware and software employed in the processor 500 as well as the risk minimization and insurance mechanism 555, is incorporated herein by reference) is presented to the operators of the different plants.
- the communication link is a secure link, provided with encryption such as by way of a virtual private network (VPN).
- VPN virtual private network
- digital communication links including proprietary links may also be used for interfacing the control processors at the hydroelectric plant 511 and the premier power facilities 505 by way of the control center processor 500 for example.
- the operations interface can thus monitor and control a VES options contractual operation of the wind farm 503 and the hydroelectric plant 511 for example.
- a change in power production (e.g., above or below planned amounts) at the wind farm 503 is immediately (preferably within a second, although in some cases with a lag time of a 10 seconds, or in some rare cases a minute or more) compensated for at the hydroelectric plant 511.
- a principal factor in determining the actual delay time is the response time of the hydroelectric plant 511 to a command from the wind farm 503 requesting that the gates at the hydroelectric plant 511 be opened or closed by some predetermined amount.
- the processor 500 may use the data from the meteorological data source/service to predict the amount of surplus/shortfall that will need to be addressed at some predetermined period of time in the future (e.g., 10 seconds or more), ⁇ n this way, the wind farm 503 (or alternatively the hydroelectric plant 511 itself) may dispatch an "anticipatory" control command to the hydroelectric plant 511, causing the hydroelectric plant 511 to begin to make the necessary adjustments for increasing/decreasing the power production based on the forecasted surplus/shortfall in power production from the wind farm 503 as a result of predicted wind speed increase or decrease.
- this invention includes new processes for managing risk relating to renewable power generation.
- This includes Wind farms (“WF”) and Hydro producers ("Hydro”), as well as the corresponding trading and balancing task of the power exchange (PX).
- a PX market is a market with preferably standardized products for trading, but also more tailor-made products when the need arises.
- Sellers and buyers meet anonymously (e.g., via a computer-based bid/sell system) or in the open to bid-on and sell product, such as units of power (e.g., a unit of power produced from a renewable energy source).
- a bilateral market is a market where buyers and sellers meet in the open (i.e., where identities are known, or could be known) through any media, telephone, internet, or other communications tools.
- a bilateral market in which a product may be a power delivery contract between two parties, can support trading where the participants agree over a PX interface.
- Risk management procedures, according to the present invention, for WF and Hydro can be handled in at least two different ways, but still fulfill the same needs and comply with the ability to make "green" energy an equally fungible source of power as that generated by other power production facilities. The production uncertainty from the WFs could either be handled through a standardized options market, or it could be handled through a system of bilateral options contracts between pinpointed WFs and Hydros.
- a general PX options market embodiment contains more standardized risk management tools and leave more of the responsibility for handling the production uncertainty risks with the WFs. On the other hand, liquidity and turnover on that kind of market is better, and the costs for management of uncertainty would probably be lower.
- a general bilateral option market embodiment contains more or less customized production uncertainty solutions. In this kind of market, the specific WFs leave all or most part of their risks to a specific Hydro or group of Hydros. This kind of market has insurance-like features, and the lack of standardization will thus lessen market liquidity.
- the WFs have the full responsibility of ensuring that the variation in power production is compensated for by power produced from a Hydro. Variation in the WFs' production may be covered by buying both call and put options on power for every specific hour. The options are standardized, which enables a high liquidity in the options market, and thus lowers the cost of risk management for WFs.
- Put and call options are issued by the Hydros for one specific time period, and the strike price is preferably the spot price (or could be another price) on the PX for that actual hour.
- the put option gives the WF the right to sell additional production that exceeds the amount bid into the spot market, and the call option gives the WF the right to buy power in order to meet its obligations in the spot market.
- the options cover maximally one predetermined energy unit, which makes it easy for the parties to assign a price based on the perceived value of the energy unit. [00100] Since the options cover a predetermined amount of energy, it is up to the WF to calculate and buy enough quantities of options to cover the uncertainty in power production.
- the WF operators may opt to forego the expense of buying the option, if the WFs are equipped with a premier power facility that has the ability to produce its own power from another energy source (such as compressed gas, heat storage systems such as district heating systems or boiler feedwater systems, and/or fossil fuel, which may be used in a coactive converter if necessary). Consequently, the respective WF operators can decide upon a confidence level for the ability to comply with the production bids placed at the spot market. For the Hydros, it is easy to value and price the obligation of the option, since the options have a maximum energy amount coverage. [00101] Specifically, the PX options market continuously receives buy and sell bids and offers for call and put options (as shown in step 1801 of Figure 18).
- the market also ranks best buyers and sellers against various criteria (e.g., quantity of power units needed, location where power is needed, reliability of delivery, reactive power needs, coordination mechanisms, etc.).
- bids and offers match (1803)
- a deal is closed, and both parties are provided with a notification via an update on the web page, or other computer-based message for computer-based bid/sell trading.
- transaction confirmations are sent to buyers and sellers (1805) and option premiums are settled against accounts.
- Electronic accounts are preferable, although conventional paper-based notifications and updates are possible as well.
- a determination is made whether the option hour has started or not. If yes, a send-up or send-down regulation order is sent to sellers of options from holders of options (1807). If no, participants continue to monitor the market (1801). This leads to settlement of spot sales for the given time period (1809). Data about the market is calculated hourly.
- a WF buys just one option from a Hydro.
- the option gives the buyer the right to buy or sell enough power to meet the obligations for a specific WF or set of WFs.
- the option is thus customized to fulfill the needs of a specific WF or set of WFs. This implies that valuing and pricing of the option has to be done with different sets of data.
- the general bilateral options market embodiment has insurance-like features in some cases, since it guarantees the holder of it to meet its obligations, and thus covers all the risk.
- the fact that one option covers the volume risk for a WF means that it will be priced according to the uncertainty in wind power production for the time period. The production uncertainty is different for every WF, which means that a separate valuation and pricing must be done for every option, which will effect market liquidity negatively.
- the bilateral options market continuously receives buy and sell bids for options for specific WFs or groups of WFs (1901). The market also ranks the
- a WF - PX options market embodiment of the present invention is shown in Fig 20, and can be implemented on a computer network that enables communications between Power Exchange 509 ( Figure 2) and other parties, such as the risk mimmization and insurance mechanism of processor 500, which is associated with windfarm 503.
- the WFs make or acquire production forecasts according to the latest weather forecasts (2001).
- the production forecast includes at least the expected production volume for different probability levels.
- the WF (actually the operator, or a software based process operating on behalf of the WF operator) bids its expected production for the time period (2003).
- the bid production volume would usually be the expected production.
- the bid production volume can be set to another level such as the volume (in discrete standard units) at with the WF is 90% certain of being able to meet the production. If the cost of call options differs from the costs of put options, the bid production volume on the spot market would differ from the expected production volume in order to minimize production uncertainty cost. [00107] After the expected volume is bid on the spot market, new weather forecasts could change the expected production of the WF (2005). This leads to an expected unbalance (2007). If there exists a market for balancing power (such as Elbas on the Swedish and Finnish market), the WF can continuously trade itself into balance on the balance market (2009a and 2009b), until that market closes before the time period.
- balancing power such as Elbas on the Swedish and Finnish market
- the expected unbalance costs in combination with the risk willingness of the WF and possible transmission constraints, will determine how many options the WF would want to buy, and at what maximum price, in order to manage its production uncertainty risk.
- the risk willingness of the WF (2013 a) defines how much risk the WF can accept. The risk willingness is a factor depending on the costs of not being able to fulfill the bid production levels on the spot exchange or in bilateral contracts, possible costs/lost revenues if the delivery of "green" energy cannot be fulfilled, but it also depends on the financial situation of the WF (i.e. the risk of financial distress). Further insights about penalties for production shortfalls are found in Fig, 16.
- Possible transmission constraints will also affect the desired purchase/sales of options, since it will have an influence on the possibility of the WF to meet its obligations in all situations. [00111] The amount of options and the highest acceptable price will then be calculated automatically (2015). The risk willingness will influence to what level of unbalance that options will be bought to cover the risks. A risk averse WF would probably buy options to cover the effects of all possible production levels, and a more risk seeking WF would probably not buy options that cover more than a certain degree of all possible production levels but not all. By keeping some of the risk, the total option costs can be lowered.
- a warning signal is triggered to the WF (2019).
- the WF has to decide whether to raise its bid to reach a deal, or to wait for other possible asks at a later time (2023). If no deal is reached, the WF has to accept eventual penalties or costs associated with the production uncertainty.
- any deviations from the forecasted wind power production will trigger an automatic signal to the PX (2025). If the WF has enough options to compensate for the fluctuation, the PX calculates what regulation that is required by every seller of options for that time period, and sends regulation signals to the Hydros.
- a WF - Bilateral options market embodiment is shown in Fig. 21.
- the WFs makes or acquires production forecasts according to the latest weather forecasts (2101).
- the production forecast includes at least the expected production volume for different probability levels.
- the risk willingness of the WF (2103a) defines how much risk the WF can accept.
- the risk willingness is a factor depending on the costs of not being able to fulfill the bid production levels on the spot exchange or in bilateral contracts, possible costs/lost revenues if the delivery of "green" energy cannot be fulfilled, but it also depends on the financial situation of the WF (i.e., the risk of financial distress). Further insights are found in Fig. 16 as described previously.
- the WF thereafter places bids for the bilateral option. This can be done either manually in direct contact with Hydros, or (preferably) on the electronic bilateral options market for that specific option (2107).
- the bid must contain information about the expected meteorological situation, the expected production for different probability level, and perhaps also information about the specific WF (production history etc.).
- the bid must also have a highest acceptable option price for the WF.
- the Hydros can calculate the expected profitability of every bid.
- the possibility to accept a bid is also affected by possible transmission constraints in the grid, since it influences whether the hydro can meet its obligations in all situations. If any bids are placed on acceptable levels, the Hydro accepts the obligation and issues the bilateral option to the WF in question (2109).
- the Hydro can submit counterbids on a higher level to every WF of interest.
- the WF can then either try to submit a new bid on a higher level (2111), or it have to accept eventual penalties or costs associated with the production uncertainty.
- any deviations e.g., user settable such as 10% deviation, 20% deviation, etc.
- the signal is transmitted to the PX (2115), and the PX forwards the regulation signal to the specific Hydro.
- the bilateral option was bought directly from a Hydro, and thus not bought at the PX, the signal is transmitted directly to the issuing Hydro.
- Multiple triggers can be set, such that a first shortfall (e.g, 10%) is satisfied by a first bilateral option, and a second shortfall (e.g., above 20%) is satisfied by second bilateral option.
- the PX settles the sales on the spot market (2117). All participants get credits for the amount of energy they produced, regardless of any possessions of options.
- Hydro - PX options market embodiment is shown in Fig. 22.
- the Hydro continuously calculates its regulation potential for the coming time periods (2201).
- the . regulation potential is influenced by the current reservoir level, the planned production level for the coming time periods compared to minimum/maximum production levels and the price level on the spot market compared to the price level on the futures market.
- the regulation potential is good, the present weather forecasts are used to calculate the forecasted need for total up/down regulation for all WFs in the market (2203).
- the total forecasted regulation need will determine the value of regulation potential, and thus set the price for regulation options.
- the risk willingness of the Hydro (2205) depends on the willingness to accept financial risks and on the financial consequences of unplanned regulation. Further insights are found in Fig. 17 as described previously. A Hydro with good regulation potential would suffer less from unplanned regulation, and would thus be more willing to take on risks from issuing options.
- the estimated total need for regulation which in fact sets the price level for regulation options, together with the risk willingness of the specific Hydro, is input when the wanted price for issuing options is calculated (2207). In a situation with a strained transmission situation in the grid, possible transmission constraints also have to be taken into consideration since it will affect the possibilities to fulfil the obligations from the issued options.
- the wanted price for the regulation options are based on the market need for regulating power, the Hyrdo's ability to issue options, and on the market price for different time periods. These factors are taken into consideration in a valuation model, that could be run automatically. When the price for options are calculated, the options are issued automatically on the PX (2209). [00130] If the regulation potential in the first box (2201 ) on the other hand would be low, the potential financial consequences of issuing options would have to be calculated instead (2211). This calculation would include the possible consequences if the Hydro could not fulfill its own obligations due to a high degree of ordered regulation from the WFs, and the consequences from having to deviate from the planned optimal production plan for the coming time periods. Since the production plan is forecasted to give optimal revenues, any disruptions to this plan would lead to lower forecasted revenues.
- the Hydro can manually consider to issue options hour by hour, when more information from better weather forecasts are obtained, which gives the Hydro a clearer image of the corresponding risks (2215). If a situation occurs where the options premium is worth the risk, the volume and wanted price is calculated (2217), and the offers are sent to the PX (2209). [00132] If there are matching bids at the PX, a deal is triggered (2219). The PX then settles the option premiums between the participants. If there are no matching bids, the Hydro can choose to place more attractive offers.
- a Hydro - Bilateral options market embodiment is shown in Fig. 23.
- the Hydro continuously calculates its regulation potential for the coming time periods (2301).
- the regulation potential is influenced by the current reservoir level, the planned production level for the coming time periods compared to minimum/maximum production levels and the price level on the spot market compared to the price level on the futures market.
- the present weather forecasts are used to calculate the forecasted need for total up/down regulation for all WFs in the market (2303).
- the total forecasted regulation need will determine the value of regulation potential, and thus set the price for regulation options.
- the estimated total need for regulation which in fact sets the price level for regulation options, together with the risk willingness of the specific Hydro, is input when the wanted price for issuing options is calculated (2307).
- possible transmission constraints also have to be taken into consideration since it will affect the possibilities to fulfill the obligations from the issued options.
- the wanted price for the regulation options are based on the market need for regulating power, the Hyrdos ability to issue options, and on the market price for different time periods. These factors are taken into consideration in a valuation model, that could be run automatically.
- PX Power Exchange
- VES Virtual Energy Storage
- Risks for a wind farm include cost increases when production is higher or lower than previously committed volume.
- the risk can be illustrated with a pdf describing EV of production and the possible distribution of production as Fig. 16.
- Risk is calculated as the increased cost (penalty or repurchase costs) as a function of changes in production during the time period compared to earlier committed production (100).
- Risk and an expected volume profile (101) can be combined in a diagram showing the probability of a cost occurring (102). The company will then decide on the wanted remaining risk: "The risk of a cost over x $ for the period should be lower than 5%", which is illustrated by the vertical line (102). It would be prudent for the company to purchase options to cover these risks. The company will purchase a sufficient number of options to make sure the risk is within the anticipated level.
- VES the charge for VES usage could be a fixed cost or fixed cost plus charge for volume. A capacity fee when having large positive or negative balances could also be charged.
- a WF uses a VES to store surplus electricity and withdraw when they have a lower production. The value of stored electricity is the price of electricity when withdrawing from the storage. The possibility to store wind produced electricity is also worth the premium for converting unreliable wind power to firm green power. WFs use VES to manage uncertainty in volume. Risk, and therefor the willingness to pay for reducing the risk will be calculated the same way as for options above but should be regarded as a series of risk calculations for 1...N time periods.
- Hydros offering VES will calculate three risks, volume, price and risk of non- optimal usage (Fig 17). The risk situation will be calculated using previous VES agreements and analyzing the consequences of adding new. The various risks for Hydro offering VES can be calculated as follows: [00154] Volume risk including the uncertainty in purchase and sale (input and output in
- VES VES for two random counterparties (1701 and 1702). All commitments to 1...N counterparties are summed to calculate the aggregate uncertainty in volume, leading to a risk that all contracted VES deliveries or purchases can't be made. If maximum delivery or purchase in a specific time period occurs (1703), options for green energy have to be purchased to reduce the risk; and [00155] Price risk including the uncertainty in value of input and output to VES from counterparty (1704 and 1705). Input to VES is possibly subject to an uncertainty in price, as well as the output from VES. The timing between input and output also gives a price risk. The net uncertainty in each time period is discounted to current value. The Hyrdos' risks will be used when pricing new VES contracts, so high risks in ongoing contracts will affect the future price of new VES contracts (1706).
- EV is the current optimal production plan. There is a cost associated with changes in this production plan (1708) and this results in a probability that a certain cost of VES contracts (1709). [00159] There is always a volume risk that all VES contracts will execute simultaneously in the same direction so that all contracted VES deliveries cannot be made.
- the alternative for Hydro is to purchase options as above to deliver to a VES holder.
- the wind farm 503 By providing, in a reliable fashion, units of electrical power that are at least partially derived from the wind farm 503, enables the wind generated electrical power to be on par with other types of power in a commercial setting.
- the present inventors have recognized that by making this power reliable both in terms of the quality of the power provided to the grid, and also in terms of the contractual reliability with which the wind power may be provided to the grid by relationships with virtual energy storage facilities, wind power units may also be traded on a power market.
- the power exchange 509 includes long term contracts for providing predetermined amounts of power to the grid.
- the wind farm operator may also participate in this power exchange by entering into forward contracts.
- renewable power exchange 507 which includes units of power that may be traded from power production facilities that use renewable sources of power (solar, wind, hydro, for example).
- the renewable exchange is based on the principle that if certain power production facilities can reliably predict the amount of power they can produce at any given instant in time, then contractual relationships may be formed and units of power, that are perhaps guaranteed by way of options contracts, may be traded in a forum such as in a power exchange for renewable energy sources.
- the renewable power exchange will be based on the principle that units of power for some given period of time produced by the wind farm, may be predicted with a certain degree of accuracy, based on meteorological data source and prediction tool 513.
- This meteorological prediction tool 513 provides a statistical probability indicating the likelihood of the wind farm actually producing the amount of power contracted for a given period of time. Based on this prediction, it is the availability of that information that is reviewable by different market participants at the renewable power exchange, bidding is done on the unit of wind power energy produced by the wind farm at some given period of time.
- thermoelectric plant 515 or hydroelectric plant 511 operators may also purchase the units of wind power and use the control center processor 500 as a mechanism for guaranteeing that the hydroelectric plant 511 or thermoelectric plant 515 can increase its production in the cases when the wind farm in fact has a lull in wind and cannot produce the required amount of wind generated electric power.
- the other operators may purchase from a wind farm operator a surplus of potential energy saved in the wind farm operator's virtual energy storage account. The potential energy assets will tend to accumulate in the wind farm operator's account if the wind turbines experience a greater than predicted amount of wind.
- the price that a hydroelectric plant operator (or other type of operator) would be willing to pay would be a function of the level of renewable energy resources they presently have collected, or as a result of their optimization process, predict to have in the future. For example, the price a hydroelectric plant operator would be willing to pay for wind energy would be relatively high if the water reserve at the hydroelectric plant is relatively low or below expectation levels for that particular time during the season.
- the water reserve is here the reservoir volume minus possible VES contract volumes.
- thermoelectric plant operators would, on a unit-by-unit basis, be willing to pay for the green units of wind power in order to meet their governmental regulations. Purchasing units of power from a wind farm operator also saves on fuel, provided that the output levels and cost from the wind farm are sufficient to offset their reserve of fossil fuels.
- the risks minimization and insurance mechanism 555 receives data through the I/O of the renewable energy control processor 500.
- the risk minimization and insurance mechanism 555 may operate independently of the renewable energy control center processor 500.
- the renewable energy control processor 500 may be configured to include the risk minimization and insurance mechanism 555.
- Features of the risk minimization and insurance mechanism 555 that would govern whether it could be hosted in other computer facilities include, as shown in Figure 3, a processor 357 that connects via a bus 359 to other components, internally, as well as through an interface to outside actors as will be discussed.
- the processor 357 connects via the bus 359 to a memory 355, which holds computer readable instructions therein that are able to perform the communication operations with outside devices, as well as implementing the insurance coordination mechanism 361, power production prediction mechanism 363, and risk assessment mechanism 365. Furthermore, the computer readable instructions originally held in the memory 355 and ultimately executed on the processor 357 are able to implement the computational steps in the processes of Figures 18-23 previously discussed.
- the interface of the risk minimization and insurance mechamsm 555 connects to the meteorological data source and service 513 for receiving meteorological data about the present, as well as perhaps future and past meteorological data local to the site where the renewable facility is located, as well as more macroscopic meteorological data that may influence the forecast provided by forecasting prediction mechanisms (which may be a manual process).
- a power prediction market mechanism 591 is a computer-based market (although alternatively a manual process may be performed as well) for making available forecast data, that may include forecasts on power production levels from specific renewable sites as well as other sites. More of the details of the power prediction market mechanism 591 are discussed in the process flow of Figure 4. [00167]
- the interface also interconnects to different exchanges, which include the renewable exchange and the power exchange 594.
- the forecast data as well as the power production prediction mechanism and risk assessment mechanism 365 provide data to the renewable exchange in PX 594 (in Figure 3, shown separately as 507 and 509 in Figure 2), and pricing information provided by the renewable exchange and the PX are provided to the risk assessment mechanism 365, for identifying predicted prices for present and future sales of power to be produced by a particular renewable facility.
- the interface creates a connection to renewable providers and investors 595, as well as other actors who may have an interest (financial or otherwise) in obtaining data regarding the likelihood of certain power production levels being met by a wind farm (or other type of renewable) at a certain time in the future.
- the power production prediction mechanism 363 has the function of predicting the amount of power output by a particular renewable facility at some predetermined time in the future.
- the meteorological actors may provide an estimated probability for the size of the prediction error.
- the meteorological ensemble forecasts are a set of forecasts starting from slightly perturbed initial conditions. Through the strong non-linearity of the atmospheric motion systems a spread in forecasted variables results.
- This spread may be taken as representing the range of uncertainty due to erroneous inputs, and due to errors in forecast model formulations. By relating this error to the prices at the power market, a financial risk assessment is possible. This assessment can be refined using software simulation scenarios e.g. following the approach by Meibom et.al. (cited previously), but on time-scales relevant for the prediction period.
- the range of power production predictions obtained by combining the meteorological forecast uncertainty with a calculation of power production for a given wind energy turbine is combined with the pricing at the energy exchange.
- the financial impact of a meteorological forecast error is then obtained. Based on this knowledge, a market for power production predictions is formed. The knowledge is also helpful to the usage of the VES business model discussed above an in US patent application serial no. 09/749,999. A value of the financial risk connected to putting power production options on the energy exchange is obtained.
- the risk assessment mechamsm 365 receives the output from the power production prediction mechanism 363, in the form of a statistical description of the likelihood of predetermined levels of power production from the renewable facility over some period of time.
- the power production prediction mechamsm 363, also provides a related expected price to be paid for that power if sold in an open market system such as the renewable exchange and PX 594 ( Figure 3).
- the power production prediction mechanism 363 makes this estimate of pricing information as described above in the section on risk analysis and quantification. With this pricing information, including the statistical indicator regarding the variants of the pricing information, the risk assessment mechanism 365 can then determine whether a back-up form of power is required or at least the option to supplement the renewable power output with power that may be produced via a VES.
- the greater the variance in the forecasting results the greater the uncertainty regarding whether a full delivery of power from the renewable facility will be achieved. As a consequence, greater price risk is available for investors and the power provided by the renewable facility.
- the insurance coordination mechanism 361 keeps track of the statistical accuracy with regard to the past forecasts. Depending on how accurate the forecasts have been, the insurance coordination mechanism 361 will provide either prompts to a user of the risk mimmization and insurance mechanism 555, requesting whether insurance would like to be obtained or not to offer to offset financial risk for providing a faulty forecast. If so, the insurance coordination mechanism 361 sends a message to a previously identified insurance carrier, who previously agreed to issue financial insurance for providing forecast data that was 'used in a particular trade.
- the insurance coordination mechanism 361, may also include an automated feature, which is applicable when a user of the risk minimization insurance mechanism 555 already decides that insurance should be obtained either for the investors themselves, or for the forecaster, to guard against a risk of legal liability should a cause of action be raised against the forecaster for providing faulty information.
- the insurance coordination mechanism 361 is the coordination of a contract with another energy provider so as to provide supplementary energy in the case that the production is below a previously predicted level.
- the insurance coordination mechanism 361 can either "on the fly", or through a previous arrangement, place a request to the VES as a back-up source of power, should there be a shortfall.
- FIG 4 is a flowchart describing the mechanism for the power prediction market and the activities of the power production market. This market is driven by parties that make a specific request regarding a specific renewable facility, as well as for general reporting purposes on a number of renewable facilities.
- the process begins in step S601 where an inquiry is made regarding a request that was received for providing the report on a specific renewable facility site. If the response to the inquiry is yes, the process proceeds to step S605 where specific site data is read from memory.
- the site data at least includes location, power production capacity and whether there are existing VES arrangements (either contractual, or through ownership, or joint venture, via a common owner for example).
- step S603 the process proceeds to step S603, where similar data as that obtained in step S605 is obtained, however the data is for a predetermined list of renewable facilities.
- the predetermined list of renewable facilities may be the most popular renewable facilities for investment by private investors. As a consequence, these investors may like to periodically receive updates on a likelihood of their particular facilities meeting or exceeding the expected production forecast from an earlier date.
- step S607 meteorological data is obtained for the relevant sites.
- the meteorological data includes not only data provided from local sensors, but also from nearby wind farm sensors, meteorological network sensors, as well as national meteorological facilities, like those discussed in reference to Figure 36 of US patent application Serial No. 09/749,999.
- a forecast of the wind energy or other type of renewable energy source is made as well as the identification of the related error associated with that forecast.
- step S611 financial data is retrieved from the respective power exchanges.
- step S613 a forecast is made of the market production (the amount of power expected to be produced) and the associated related error distribution.
- step S615 a monetary value of the production forecast error distribution is calculated as described in the above section on risk analysis and quantification.
- step S617 an inquiry is made regarding whether the forecast requested was for the specific renewable facility. If the response to the inquiry is affirmative, the process proceeds to step S621 where a report of the monetary value of the forecast production is provided, along with the related error to the party who made the request.
- step S623 a fee is collected from the requesting party or an agent of the requesting party and subsequently the process ends.
- the delivery of the report may be in any one of a variety of forms, including electronic communication (e.g. e-mail, or even a web posting), but may be by other techniques as well such as even by telephone or by mail.
- step S619 the subscribers are notified by either posting the monetary value of the production forecast error to a subscriber accessible web site for the different renewable facilities, or the value is reported to subscribers by other methods. These other methods may include specific electronic messages sent to the subscribers (e.g., e-mail), or by postal mail or the like.
- the process then proceeds to step S625 where periodically a subscription fee is collected from the different subscribers and then the process ends.
- step SI 001 a forecaster provides a forecast of the wind energy production and its error probability.
- step SI 101 the production forecast is marketed together with the error information.
- step SI 201 a forecaster also calculates monetary value of the production forecast error.
- step SI 203 an inquiry is made regarding whether the monetary risk of guaranteeing the forecast is too large (relative to a predetermined threshold that may be fixed, or also user-settable). If the response to the inquiry in step S1203 is negative, the process proceeds to step S1205, where the production forecast is traded.
- step SI 209 a back ⁇ up power delivery option is purchased by the forecaster so as to supplement the production forecast. This would occur, where the investor or the one responsible for actually delivering the predetermined amount of power, obtains a certain amount of insurance in the form of back-up power delivery should the production forecast be more optimistic than the power that was actually produced.
- step SI 207 the production forecast is traded with a guarantee.
- optional insurance may be purchased through an insurance policy for the forecaster so as to avoid legal risk to the forecaster in the event of an erroneous production forecast. The amount of insurance required reduces with a corresponding increase in the amount of back-up power delivery option (amount of power to be delivered) purchased.
- step SI 101 the output then proceeds in parallel to three different steps S3001, which is reception at a power exchange, S3003, a wind power producer, and step S3005, where a hydropower producer receives the production forecast information.
- steps S3001 which is reception at a power exchange, S3003, a wind power producer, and step S3005, where a hydropower producer receives the production forecast information.
- Step S3007 the process proceeds to Step S3007, wherein the risk of grid
- imbalance is determined in terms of ⁇ f and ⁇ W by notifying the system operator of the
- Step S3003 calculates the monetary value of production forecast error in Step S3009.
- the monetary value of production forecast error may be calculated by another entity and simply provided to the wind power producer.
- Step S3015 the process proceeds to Step S3015 when an inquiry is made regarding whether the monetary risk is larger than a predetermined level. If the response to the inquiry is negative, the process proceeds to Step 3013 where the forecasted wind energy production is then made available for trading on a market such as the renewable power exchange or the power exchange itself. On the other hand, if the response to the inquiry in Step S3015 is affirmative, the process proceeds to Step S3017 where the wind power producer (or an agent thereof) purchases a backup power delivery option from a virtual energy storage facility.
- Step S3019 the forecasted wind energy production, backed by the VES delivery option, may be sold on the market.
- Step S3011 the process proceeds to Step S3011, where the monetary value of production forecast error is calculated, as was the case with S1201 and S3009.
- Step S3021 an inquiry is made regarding whether the storage of energy is sufficient to serve as a market backup for a power delivery option.
- Step S3023 the VES does not offer backup power delivery options.
- Step S3025 the backup power (VES) delivery option is sold on the market. Subsequently the process ends.
- VES backup power
- FIG. 7 is a flowchart describing some of the sub steps on Step SI 001 of Figure 5 for example.
- the process begins in Step S820 where the information regarding a particular renewable site is collected.
- the process then proceeds to Step S821 where an ensemble forecast is performed for that specific site.
- the ensemble forecast enables a spread of forecasting results to be obtained for different prediction periods. These forecasting results relate to forward contrast for power delivery at predetermined times in the future.
- the process then proceeds to Step S825 where the range of power production predictions are calculated for the renewable site by combining the spread of forecasting results with a mathematical power production model of the renewable power production facility located at the renewable site.
- a mathematical power production model for in this case a wind turbine, is shown in Figure 9.
- Step S827 pricing information from the various power exchanges on forward contract prices for a power delivery are collected.
- Step S829 an expected value of
- an expected value of the production level and price may be determined directly from a combination of the probability density function obtained from the ensemble forecast and the power output capabilities of the particular renewable site.
- pdf probability density function
- ⁇ 2 the statistical variance
- Step S831 an inquiry is made regarding whether at least one of the expected value of power production (E(P)), expected price (E($)), or standard deviation (or variance) is above a predetermined thresholdl, for that variable.
- threshold 1 the process proceeds to Step S837, where the excess power may be sold (or kept on account) with a VES as part of a delivery option for the excess expected power to be produced above thresholdl .
- Step S839 the predicted amount of energy is sold on the market, and then the process stops.
- Step S833 an inquiry is made regarding whether the statistical indicator is less than a second threshold, threshold2.
- Threshold2 is lower than thresholdl, and if the expected power production is less than threshold2, then it would behoove the investor or wind power producer, to ensure that a backup delivery option is contracted, possibly from a VES.
- Step S835 first the availability of reserve energy at the VES is checked and then if sufficient, the option to obtain excess power from the VES is reserved for supplementing the possible shortfall from the renewable power provider. Subsequently, the process proceeds to Step S839 as discussed before. Similarly, if the response to the inquiry in Step S833 is negative, thus indicating that expected power delivery is above threshold2, then the process proceeds directly to Step S839, where the forecasted wind energy is sold. Subsequently the process stops.
- Figure 8 is a probability density function of the power output from a renewable facility at a predetermined time frame.
- the specific shape of the pdf will be unique to a particular set of forecast data.
- the one restriction on pdf is that the area under the curve must sum to 1.
- the pdf curve in Figure 8 shows that a peak probability occurs somewhere in the neighborhood of 75% of nominal production (X).
- the spread of the pdf will indicate an amount of variance of the predicted power output, i.e. the probability of a certain deviation from the expectation value. Larger variances, indicating a larger range and thus greater uncertainty with regard to whether the predicted power will actually be deliverable or not.
- thresholdl and threshold2 are set at different power output levels.
- thresholdl If the probability of exceeding a given power output (or expected monetary value) is what is indicated by thresholdl, then an excess amount of power is available for delivery. Likewise, if it is determined that the spread, i.e. uncertainty, in power production deviates more from the expectation value than as would be limited by threshold 2, then it would appear necessary to attain backup power delivery option for a purchase.
- POWER EXCHANGE BALANCING FUNCTION The prediction uncertainty coupled to meteorological forecasts of wind power production leads to a risk. This risk is present for the individual trader as well as for the power exchange itself, or any sub-system of it. For the individual trader it primarily generates a need for purchases of power delivery options, e.g. through the virtual energy storage, VES, in order to avoid risk of loss of income, or possible penalties for not delivering contracted sales of wind power. For the power exchange it primarily leads to a risk of grid imbalance. The prediction uncertainty is for the exchange measured in terms of a 'power production differential', ⁇ W. The differential is the difference between forecasted production and the actual production that due to the forecast error probability may result. The relevant measure being e.g. MW. Different areas of the grid may due to different amount of installed wind power capacity and different forecast error probabilities
- Each wind power production unit will have a ⁇ W associated with it. So will
- ⁇ W results by summation of sub-system ⁇ W.
- Figure 6 is a flowchart that includes process steps for mitigating risks associated with grid imbalance that may arise due to some production shortfalls.
- step S3007 the risk of grid imbalance in terms of ⁇ W and ⁇ f
- step S3601 an inquiry is made
- meteorological and geographical data is acquired from the global telecommunication system meteorological data flow, or from other sources where relevant data for the given
- forecast length ⁇ t is available, such as for very short time-scales e.g. local wind
- the prediction may be based on Nowcasting techniques possibly in combination with statistical methods.
- Nowcasting here refers to methods for objectively analyzing observed meteorological data covering a restricted geographical area (i.e., meso-scale area). Observation techniques may include but not be limited to radar, satellite, balloon or ground-based sensors or other suitable methods.
- Preferable output of the numerical Nowcasting tools is a three- dimensional time series of data at intervals of minutes. Predictions of available wind for the wind power turbines are obtained from this data by trend fitting using data from the geographic upwind area, data from several time intervals, as well as combined with the influence of the local characteristics as described by atmospheric boundary layer physics.
- By perturbing the input data of the analysis a spread of predicted values may be obtained. This spread provides information on possible deviation from the predicted value of say
- the predicted flow field will be altered (block PI 03 in Figure 10) as a result of wind farm effects such as wake influences (e.g. Magnusson, 1996).
- Local flow field corrections may also be needed due to small-scale topographic effects not included in the forecast method used, particularly for the medium range forecasting described above (e.g. Stull, 1988).
- Multi Variate Data Analysis (MVDA) techniques and/or Neural Network methods may here be used to continuously improve the predictive skill.
- This period represents the time window centered at in
- a first step is here summation of production from the generators in a wind farm 1 to obtain the wind farm energy production W,.
- a possible but not necessary scenario is that for a large deviation at a given probability level a high price level will result since the demand for VES-options will be large. And, conversely, if the predicted deviation level is small.
- An actor in the trade will now ask for bids on the options market. The actor may ask for a small factor of predicted deviation at a given probability level or choose to ask for a VES-option covering the whole deviation or more. As bids are placed on the market the actor may choose to buy an option if the bid level is acceptable. The financial risk the actor is ready to take influences the decision to buy or not to buy.
- the ask/bid process may then be adaptive and/or repetitive.
- deviations ⁇ P j are here used to trigger business deals that change the content of the
- the actor may as shown in Figure 12 choose to trade with trading blocks made up of contributions from several renewable power production units and VES-option suppliers. The actor then takes into account limitations in transmission capacity.
- a computerized database is set up such that historical data are archived on
- the electrical power grid and its takeovers aiming at long term business operations and minimizing risk to all market participants.
- the invention disclosed herein provides other novel and advantageous methods and mechanisms dependent on meteorological information for business activities around wind turbines, wind farms and their co-operation with the electrical power grid and its stakeholders aiming at long-term business operations.
- some aspects of the procedures can be performed in various ways equivalent to those disclosed herein, e.g., utilizing ganged operation of two or more power producing plants (of at least two kinds, e.g., wind and hydro power, described in U.S. Patent Application Serial No.
Description
Claims
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EP02713127A EP1395931A1 (en) | 2001-06-15 | 2002-03-26 | System, method and computer program product for risk-minimization and mutual insurance relations in meteorology dependent activities |
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EP1395931A1 (en) | 2004-03-10 |
US7430534B2 (en) | 2008-09-30 |
US20020194113A1 (en) | 2002-12-19 |
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