CN103093102A - Debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on seism and drought monitoring - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on seism and drought monitoring. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring resolves the problems that in the prior art a debris flow disaster early-stage alarm technology is not mature enough and thus preventive treatment to the debris flow disaster by people is not beneficial. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring comprises the following steps: searching and collecting historical seismic activity status, long sequence rainfall data and terrain data of an debris flow prediction area and adjacent areas; determining a typical debris flow development-area to which the debris flow prediction area belongs, combining a coupling relationship of debris flow development with seismic activities and drought in the typical debris flow development-area, and analyzing and obtaining correlation of the debris flow development with the seismic activities and drought; and judging susceptible occurrence degree of debris flow according to the calculated and obtained effect of the seismic activities and drought to the debris flow development. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring achieves the purpose of precision prediction of the debris flow through the scheme, and has high practical value and promotional value.

Description

The early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of hazard prediction method, specifically, relate to a kind of early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor.

Background technology

As everyone knows, rubble flow refers in the mountain area or other cheuch deep gullies, and the area that landform is dangerously steep is because the landslide that heavy rain severe snow or other disasteies cause and carry the special mighty torrent of a large amount of silts and stone.Because rubble flow has sudden and flow velocity is fast, flow is large, material characteristics capacious, its destructive power is stronger, once generation, can cause irreparable damage to the people's lives and property.Therefore, people can carry out the effectively method of prediction to rubble flow in the urgent need to a kind of, and to realize the timely control to rubble flow, at present, the prophylactico-therapeutic measures of rubble flow comprises following two kinds:

Engineering measure: be mainly by building check dam, debris dam, drainage groove and the entity project such as field of stopping becoming silted up is prevented and treated rubble flow, yet, adopt expending of engineering measure control rubble flow large, long in time limit, so be unfavorable for promoting on a large scale quoting.

non-engineering measure: it has the construction period short (being mainly that equipment is installed), the advantage that expense is few, therefore, development along with science and technology, adopt non-engineering measure control rubble flow will become one of the Main Means in debris flow field, it mainly comprises the rubble flow early warning, the start-up course early warning, motion process early warning and face the calamity early warning, although, at present about the early warning of rubble flow start-up course, motion process early warning and to face the technology of calamity early warning more, but all not mature enough, and the technology of relevant rubble flow early warning very lacks, therefore in the urgent need to the early warning technology of research and development based on Debris Flow Evolution mechanism, and then strengthen conscientiously predicting that according to the early warning achievement mud-stone flow disaster easily sends out the monitoring and warning in zone, thereby guarantee cities and towns, the safety of Important Project and infrastructure.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, the technology that mainly solves the mud-stone flow disaster early warning that exists in prior art comparatively lacks, not mature enough, be unfavorable for the problem that people prevent and treat rubble flow.

To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is as follows:

The early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor comprises the following steps:

(a) collect near the Historical Seismicity situation in rubble flow estimation range and this zone, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data;

(b) determine typical Debris Flow Evolution district under the rubble flow estimation range, draw as shown in Table 1 Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid correlativity in conjunction with the coupled relation analysis of the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and seismic activity and arid;

Table one

；

(c) when analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution only seismic activity is relevant, calculate seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution; When drawing Debris Flow Evolution, analysis only when relevant, calculates arid impact on Debris Flow Evolution with arid; When analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid when all relevant, calculate simultaneously seismic activity and arid impact on Debris Flow Evolution;

(d) impact of Debris Flow Evolution is judged the easy-suffering level of rubble flow according to the seismic activity that calculates and arid.

Specifically, in described step (b), seismic activity draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

(c1) collect the Historical Seismicity situation that comprises epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow prediction district and near zone thereof;

(c2) determine the distance B in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range if R 〉=D judges seismic activity; If R＜D judges that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range is irrelevant.

Further, in described step (c2), the Sensible radius R of earthquake draws by following formula: $R=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\≤5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array}\right..$

Further, arid draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

According to the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of the long sequence rainfall data Calculation of Debris Flow of the history of collecting estimation range, if SPI≤-0.5 item judges that arid Debris Flow Evolution with the rubble flow estimation range is relevant; If SPI 〉-0.5 item judge that arid is irrelevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

Wherein, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in described rubble flow estimation range is drawn by following mode:

(c3) quantity of precipitation of supposing certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, and the probability density function that distributes of its Γ is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\β}}^{\mathrm{\γ}}\mathrm{\Γ}\left(\mathrm{\γ}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\γ}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\β}},$ x>0； $\mathrm{\Γ}\left(\mathrm{\γ}\right)={\∫}_0^{\∞}{x}^{\mathrm{\γ}-1}{e}^{-x}\mathrm{dx},$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, and γ is form parameter, and it is both tried to achieve by following formula greater than zero:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\γ}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};$ $\widehat{\mathrm{\β}}=\stackrel{\‾}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\γ}},$ Wherein, $A=1g\stackrel{\‾}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}1g{x}_i,$ X in formula _iBe the data of precipitation sample,

Be quantity of precipitation mean value;

(c4) establishing actual quantity of precipitation is x ₀, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence be: Try to achieve probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

(c41) as actual quantity of precipitation x ₀When being zero, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, wherein, m is that quantity of precipitation is zero sample number, n is total sample number;

(c5) probability density function that Γ is distributed carries out the normal state standardization and draws: $P(x<x_0)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}{\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{e}^{-Z^2/2}\mathrm{dx},$ It is carried out approximate solution draws: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{((d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein,

P is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Be zero probability of occurrence, as P〉0.5 the time, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; The Z value of trying to achieve according to above-mentioned value is this Standardized Precipitation index S PI.

Particularly, in step (d), the easy-suffering level of described rubble flow is judged by table two:

Table two

。

As preferably, in step (c2), described rubble flow estimation range apart from the distance B in earthquake centre by directly measuring from the topomap of precision more than or equal to 1:200000; In step (a), the time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history of collecting was greater than 50 years.

Compared with prior art, the present invention has following beneficial effect:

(1) the present invention is by carrying out the determinacy performance prediction to the monitoring of seismic activity and arid to Debris Flow Evolution district disaster; realized the performance prediction to the mud-stone flow disaster easy-suffering level; so that people in time prevent and treat, can protect better Mountain Urban Area, Important Project and people life property safety.

(2) the Debris Flow Evolution district disaster method for early prediction that proposes of the present invention is comparatively ripe, and it is comparatively accurate to predict the outcome, and has solved the deficiency of existing Forecasting Methodology, can fully satisfy people's demand, have outstanding substantive distinguishing features and marked improvement, be fit to large-scale promotion application.

(3) the present invention possesses landform and the condition of raining of Debris Flow Evolution in view of the most of mountain area of China, start with for no reason at all from controlling the loose of Debris Flow Evolution, find its Dominated Factors---earthquake and arid, by the statistical study that earthquake and arid are affected disastrous rubble flow, determined that China's mountain seism and arid are on several patterns that affect of disastrous rubble flow, set up the rubble flow based on earthquake and the draught monitor early stage performance prediction method that a cover has regional characteristic, met people's demand.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is schematic flow sheet of the present invention.

Embodiment

The invention will be further described below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, and embodiments of the present invention include but not limited to the following example.

Embodiment

Usually the factor that affects debris flow formation has Tu Yuan, water source and landform.Studies show that, greater than 9mm, 24 hourly rainfall depths the possibility of breaking out rubble flow is just arranged, and such raininess are at China's mountain area ubiquity (removing Drought Mountain Area) greater than 20mm when 1 hourly rainfall depth.The Dominated Factors that the mountain area mudstone forms is loose Tu Yuan, and the principal element that affect Tu Yuan is earthquake and arid, as about 5,000,000,000 m of Wenchuan earthquake generation ³The solid bulk materials, and vast arid and the physical weathering of dieing form the root that a large amount of bulk materials becomes Debris Flow Evolution, so start with from earthquake and arid, foundation is based on the mud-stone flow disaster method for early prediction of earthquake and arid, has theoretical foundation, and can fill up domestic blank based on the loose early prediction that has no chance, and promote the anti-war of non-engineering debris flow measure, promote the progress of the work of effectively taking precautions against natural calamities that non-engineering measure combines with engineering measure.

for lacking the deficiency of rubble flow early prediction technology in prior art, the invention provides a kind of early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, by the impact on rubble flow estimation range Debris Flow Evolution of the seismic activity of Deterministic Methods analysis of history and arid, adopt suitable appraisal procedure to analyze the rubble flow easy-suffering level of rubble flow estimation range, so that people strengthen the rubble flow start-up course conscientiously in the territory, area where mud-rock flow is liable to occur, motion process and face calamity early warning working dynamics, fully ensure the cities and towns in the territory, area where mud-rock flow is liable to occur, the safety of Important Project and infrastructure.

As shown in Figure 1, should based on the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster of earthquake and draught monitor, comprise the following steps: collect near the Historical Seismicity situation in rubble flow estimation range and this zone, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data; The time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history of wherein, collecting should be greater than 50 years.Wherein, historical long sequence rainfall data can be collected by modes such as monthly, seasons.

Determine affiliated typical Debris Flow Evolution district, rubble flow estimation range, in conjunction with the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and the coupled relation analysis results of seismic activity and arid, analyze the seismic activity of rubble flow estimation range and arid situation to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, draw as shown in Table 1 Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid correlativity;

Table one

In above-mentioned table one, according to the coupled relation achievement in research of typical Debris Flow Evolution district's Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid, the typical rubble flow zone of the early stage performance prediction in Debris Flow Evolution district can be divided into following three kinds of situations:

Situation one: Debris Flow Evolution only with Relations To Earthquakes closely (or closer); It is judged in the following manner: collect the Historical Seismicity situation that comprises epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow prediction district and near zone thereof; Determine the distance B in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range if R 〉=D judges seismic activity; If R＜D judges that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range is irrelevant.

Wherein, the Sensible radius R of earthquake draws by following formula: $R=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\&le;5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array}\right.,$ Its unit is KM; By directly measuring from the topomap of precision more than or equal to 1:200000, its unit is KM apart from the distance B in earthquake centre in the rubble flow estimation range.According to the actual requirements, the precision of topomap can be carried out corresponding raising.

Situation two: Debris Flow Evolution is (or closer) in close relations with arid only; It is judged in the following manner: according to the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of the long sequence rainfall data Calculation of Debris Flow of the history of collecting estimation range, if SPI≤-0.5 item judges that arid Debris Flow Evolution with the rubble flow estimation range is relevant; If SPI 〉-0.5 item judge that arid is irrelevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

Wherein, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in the rubble flow estimation range is drawn by following mode:

The quantity of precipitation of supposing certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, and the probability density function that distributes of its Γ is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&beta;}}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\&beta;}},$ x>0； $\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)={\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x}\mathrm{dx},$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, and γ is form parameter, and it is both tried to achieve by following formula greater than zero:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};$ $\widehat{\mathrm{\&beta;}}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}},$ Wherein, $A=1g\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}1g{x}_i,$ X in formula _iBe the data of precipitation sample,

Be quantity of precipitation mean value;

If actual quantity of precipitation is x ₀, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence be:

Try to achieve probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

As actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence when being zero is drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, and wherein, m is that quantity of precipitation is zero sample number, n is total sample number;

The probability density function that Γ is distributed carries out the normal state standardization and draws: $P(x<x_0)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}{\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{e}^{-Z^2/2}\mathrm{dx},$ It is carried out approximate solution draws: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{((d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein,

P is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Be zero probability of occurrence, as P〉0.5 the time, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; The Z value of trying to achieve according to above-mentioned value is this Standardized Precipitation index S PI.

Situation three: Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid relation be close (or closer) all.It is the judgement that situation one and situation two combine and done, and because decision procedure is identical, does not therefore do repeat specification at this.

Afterwards, can judge the easy-suffering level of rubble flow once seismic activity and arid that, situation two and situation three calculate to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution according to above-mentioned situation.Its concrete decision method such as table two:

Table two

。

Rainy season, therefore can pass through to calculate the drought index SPI in spring due to Debris Flow in implementation process, thus the easy-suffering level of judgement rubble flow in rainy season.Then according to seismic activity and spring arid on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season then, thereby realize the purpose of the early stage performance prediction of mud-stone flow disaster.

Particularly, the present invention be based on use Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, then carry out then rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season, thereby realize the early stage performance prediction of rubble flow.

Based on such scheme, also carried out actual verification according to this Forecasting Methodology in the present invention, the invention will be further described below in conjunction with three preferred cases:

Case study on implementation one

With Liangshan of Sichuan Province autonomous prefecture of Yi nationality, distributed over Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou Ningnan County as the rubble flow estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, use Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2012, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Ningnan County and near historical earthquake situation in recent years thereof are as follows: on May 12nd, 2008, Wenchuan County in Sichuan earthquake; Ningnan county magistrate's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up one as can be known, Ningnan County Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid be (or closer) in close relations all, therefore, needs to analyze seismic activity and arid impact on this zone Debris Flow Evolution;

C.2008 year Wenchuan earthquake, the earthquake centre measures according to topomap in the Wenchuan County, and the Ningnan County is 434.3km far from the earthquake centre distance B, 8 grades of Wenchuan earthquake earthquake magnitudes, the Sensible radius R of earthquake is 837.5km;

D. less than Wenchuan earthquake Sensible radius R, so Wenchuan earthquake causes the estimation range easily to send out rubble flow far from the distance B in earthquake centre in the Ningnan County;

E. according to the Ningnan County of downloading from China Meteorological Administration data sharing center rainfall data month by month, calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of estimation range spring in 2012, result of calculation is SPI=-0.94≤-0.5, and namely spring, arid caused the estimation range that rubble flow easily occurs;

F. according to the analysis result of step C and step e, rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season is carried out in the estimation range, result shows that rubble flow very easily occurs in the estimation range.

Real example: rainy season in 2012, extensive mud-stone flow disaster occurs in Ningnan County short person's ditch, causes very serious casualties and property loss.

Case study on implementation two

With Linxiang county, Hunan Province as the estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, use Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2011, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Linxiang county and near historical earthquake situation in recent years thereof are as follows: nearly 50 years, Linxiang county and near zone thereof recorded earthquake; Linxiang county magistrate's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up one as can be known, Linxiang county Debris Flow Evolution is only in close relations with arid, therefore only need analyze arid to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution;

C. according to the Linxiang county that downloads from China Meteorological Administration data sharing center rainfall data month by month, calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of estimation range spring in 2011, result of calculation is SPI=-1.1≤-0.5, and namely spring, arid caused the estimation range that rubble flow easily occurs;

D. according to the analysis result of step C, rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season is carried out in the estimation range, result shows that rubble flow easily occurs in the estimation range.

Real example: rainy season in 2011, mud-stone flow disaster occurs in Linxiang county, Hunan Province, causes comparatively serious casualties and property loss.

Case study on implementation three

With Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan as the estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, use Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2012, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Dujiang weir and near historical earthquake situation in recent years thereof are as follows: on May 12nd, 2008, Wenchuan County in Sichuan earthquake; Dujiang weir mayor's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up 1 as can be known, the Dujiangyan City Debris Flow Evolution is only close with Relations To Earthquakes, therefore only need analyze seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution;

C.2008 year Wenchuan earthquake, the earthquake centre measures according to topomap in the Wenchuan County, and the Dujiangyan City is 43km far from the earthquake centre distance B, 8 grades of Wenchuan earthquake earthquake magnitudes, the Sensible radius R of earthquake is 837.5Km; Less than Wenchuan earthquake Sensible radius R, so Wenchuan earthquake causes the estimation range easily to send out rubble flow far from the distance B in earthquake centre in the Dujiangyan City;

D. according to the analysis result of step C, rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season is carried out in the estimation range, result shows that rubble flow easily occurs in the estimation range.

Real example: rainy season in 2012, Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan has mud-stone flow disaster on a small scale, causes comparatively serious property loss.

By above-mentioned case study on implementation as can be known; the present invention can carry out performance prediction to the mud-stone flow disaster easy-suffering level; and this Forecasting Methodology is comparatively ripe; predict the outcome also comparatively accurate, in time prevent and treat by being convenient to people to the prediction of Debris Flow Evolution, can protect better Mountain Urban Area, Important Project and people life property safety; solved the deficiency of existing Forecasting Methodology; can fully satisfy people's demand, have outstanding substantive distinguishing features and marked improvement, be fit to large-scale promotion application.

According to above-described embodiment, just can realize well the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. based on the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster of earthquake and draught monitor, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

(a) collect near the Historical Seismicity situation in rubble flow estimation range and this zone, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data;

(b) determine typical Debris Flow Evolution district under the rubble flow estimation range, draw Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid correlativity in conjunction with the coupled relation analysis of the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and seismic activity and arid;

(c) when analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution only seismic activity is relevant, calculate seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution; When drawing Debris Flow Evolution, analysis only when relevant, calculates arid impact on Debris Flow Evolution with arid; When analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid when all relevant, calculate simultaneously seismic activity and arid impact on Debris Flow Evolution;

(d) impact of Debris Flow Evolution is judged the easy-suffering level of rubble flow according to the seismic activity that calculates and arid.

2. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (b), seismic activity draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

(c1) collect the Historical Seismicity situation that comprises epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow prediction district and near zone thereof;

(c2) determine the distance B in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range if R 〉=D judges seismic activity; If R＜D judges that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range is irrelevant.

3. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 2, is characterized in that, in described step (c2), the Sensible radius R of earthquake draws by following formula: $R=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\&le;5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array}\right..$

4. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 3, is characterized in that, in described step (b), arid draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

According to the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of the long sequence rainfall data Calculation of Debris Flow of the history of collecting estimation range, if SPI≤-0.5 item judges that arid Debris Flow Evolution with the rubble flow estimation range is relevant; If SPI 〉-0.5 item judge that arid is irrelevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

5. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 4, is characterized in that, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in described rubble flow estimation range is drawn by following mode:

(c3) quantity of precipitation of supposing certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, and the probability density function that distributes of its Γ is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&beta;}}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\&beta;}},$ x>0； $\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)={\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x}\mathrm{dx},$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, and γ is form parameter, and it is both tried to achieve by following formula greater than zero:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};$ $\widehat{\mathrm{\&beta;}}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}},$ Wherein, $A=1g\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}1g{x}_i,$ X in formula _iBe the data of precipitation sample,

Be quantity of precipitation mean value;

(c4) establishing actual quantity of precipitation is x ₀, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence be:

Try to achieve probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

(c41) as actual quantity of precipitation x ₀When being zero, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, wherein, m is that quantity of precipitation is zero sample number, n is total sample number;

(c5) probability density function that Γ is distributed carries out the normal state standardization and draws: $P(x<x_0)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}{\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{e}^{-Z^2/2}\mathrm{dx},$ It is carried out approximate solution draws: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{((d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein, P is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀Be zero probability of occurrence, as P〉0.5 the time, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; The Z value of trying to achieve according to above-mentioned value is this Standardized Precipitation index S PI.

6. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, in step (c2), described rubble flow estimation range apart from the distance B in earthquake centre by directly measuring from the topomap of precision more than or equal to 1:200000.

7. the early stage performance prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district's disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 6, is characterized in that, in step (a), the time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history of collecting was greater than 50 years.

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