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Publication numberCN102013150 B
Publication typeGrant
Application numberCN 201010297945
Publication date27 Mar 2013
Filing date28 Sep 2010
Priority date28 Sep 2010
Also published asCN102013150A
Publication number201010297945.6, CN 102013150 B, CN 102013150B, CN 201010297945, CN-B-102013150, CN102013150 B, CN102013150B, CN201010297945, CN201010297945.6
Inventors汤一平, 俞立, 田贤园, 宗明理, 何熊熊, 孙福顶, 孟炎, 叶良波, 吴立娟, 陈才国
Applicant浙江工业大学
Export CitationBiBTeX, EndNote, RefMan
External Links: SIPO, Espacenet
System for predicting geologic hazard based on rainfall intensity, moisture content of slope soil and deformation
CN 102013150 B
Abstract  translated from Chinese
一种基于雨强、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,包括用于监测地质灾害点的雨量雨强的自动雨量计、用于监测地质灾害点土壤中水分的土壤水分传感器、用于检测地质灾害点的地表和内部形变的全方位倾斜传感器、用于评估地质灾害发生规模的全方位视觉传感器、用于无线传输视频以及监测数据的嵌入式系统和用于进行地质灾害预测预报的监控中心计算机,监控中心计算机包括通信模块、数据接收模块、基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块、基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块、基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块和基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块。 Based on rainfall intensity, geological disaster forecast system slope soil moisture and shape variables, including rainfall rain for geological disaster monitoring points stronger automatic rain gauges for monitoring of geological disasters point of moisture in the soil soil moisture sensor, use in full-tilt sensor surface geological hazards and internal deformation, a full range of vision sensors used to assess the scale of geological disasters, for embedded systems and wireless transmission of video surveillance data and a forecast of geological disasters Computer monitoring center, the monitoring center computer includes a communication module, the data receiver module, based on rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module based on slope displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module, rainfall intensity and rainfall geological disaster prediction module based soil moisture and geological disaster prediction module based on soil moisture and slope deformation. 本发明监测手段全面、预测预报精准、智能化程度高、实时在线。 The present invention is a comprehensive monitoring tool, forecast accuracy, high intelligence, real-time online.
Claims(9)  translated from Chinese
1. 一种基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述预测系统包括用于监测地质灾害点的雨量雨强的自动雨量计、用于监测地质灾害点土壤中水分的土壤水分传感器、用于检测地质灾害点的地表和内部形变的全方位倾斜传感器、用于评估地质灾害发生规模的全方位视觉传感器、用于无线传输视频以及各种监测数据的嵌入式系统、用于进行地质灾害预测预报的监控中心计算机、用于对所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计供电的太阳能供电单元;所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计与所述的嵌入式系统连接,所述的嵌入式系统通过无线通信方式与监控中心计算机连接,所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计安置在地质灾害发生点的山体上,所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器和所述的嵌入式系统配置在同一根立杆上,所述的土壤水分传感器植入所述的立杆附近的土壤深处;所述的全方位倾斜传感器配置在地质灾害发生点的山体松质土壤上,以形成一个力传感网;每一个全方位倾斜传感器都具有一个反映埋设地点位置的编码号;每一个全方位倾斜传感器之间以及和所述的嵌入式系统之间采用无线通信的方式;所述的监控中心计算机包括:通信模块,用于与所述的嵌入式系统进行基于3G无线通信协议的无线通信以及各种计算机网络通信,接收和传输各种控制数据和监测数据;数据接收模块,用于接收从所述的嵌入式系统传送过来的各种监测数据,所述的监测数据包括雨量雨强数据、土壤水分数据、现场全景视频数据以及带有地理位置信息的斜坡形变数据;同时将这些数据以采集地点、即地质灾害点的地理位置数据为主键存放在多媒体数据库中;地质灾害点的地理位置数据以该地质灾害点的GPS定位数据进行命名;植入斜坡中的全方位倾斜传感器的地理位置数据以埋设点的GPS定位数据进行命名;基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,用以采用雨量雨强和斜坡形变两种监测数据,如表I所示;采用该模块进行有效准确预测的前提是弄清了该地质灾害点暴发泥石流的临界降雨量,表I为降雨期间不同雨强情况下预警预防措施对应表: A geological disaster forecasting system rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation based, wherein: said predicting rainfall rain geological disaster monitoring system includes a strong point of automatic rain gauges to monitor geological hazards soil moisture soil moisture sensor, tilt sensor for full-surface geological hazards and internal deformation for a full range of vision sensors to assess the scale of geological disasters, for embedded wireless transmission of video and a variety of monitoring data type system for geological disaster monitoring center computer forecast for the full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and said the automatic rain gauge solar power supply unit; a full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and said the automatic rain gauge connected to the embedded systems, embedded systems connected via a wireless communication with the monitoring center computer, the full range of vision sensors, the soil moisture sensor described above and automatic rain gauge placed on the geological disasters point of the mountain, the automatic rain gauge, a full range of vision sensors and embedded systems are configured on the same root pole, soil moisture sensor implanted deep in the soil near the the pole; the full range of the tilt sensor is disposed on the mountain spongy soil geological disasters point to form a force sensor networks; each whole the tilt sensor has an orientation to reflect the location of the buried location code number; by way of wireless communication between the embedded system and and between each of the full-tilt sensor; said monitoring center computer includes: a communication module, with embedded in the wireless communication system and a variety of computer-based 3G wireless communication network communication protocol, receiving and transmitting various control data and monitoring data; a data receiving module for receiving from the embedded system transfer over the various monitoring data, monitoring data comprises data rainfall intensity rainfall, soil moisture data, field data and slope deformation panoramic video data with geographic information; at the same time in order to collect location data, that point of geological disasters Location data is stored in a multimedia database primary key; the location data of geological disasters point to GPS location data in the geological hazards are named; the slope of the round implant tilt sensor location data with GPS positioning data point buried named; rain intensity rainfall based geological disaster prediction module for the use of rainfall rainfall intensity and slope deformation monitoring data of the two, as shown in Table I; prerequisite for effective use of this module is to understand the accurate prediction of the geological hazards outbreak mudslides critical rainfall, Table I for different rainfall intensities correspond early warning precautions during rain:
Figure CN102013150BC00021
表I ;表I中,雨强的单位mm/d,雨强在25mm/d以下的为中、小雨,雨强在25〜49. 9mm/d之间的为大雨,雨强在50〜100mm/d之间的为暴雨,雨强超过100mm/d为特大暴雨;基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块,用于利用材料力学中的受力与形变的关系进行预测,斜坡变形曲线的斜率利用切线角Cii来表达,如公式(I)所示, Table I;. Table I, rain and strong unit mm / d, rain intensity in 25mm / d or less is in the rain, rain intensity between 25~49 9mm / d of heavy rain, strong rain in 50~100mm / for rain, rain intensity over d between 100mm / d of heavy rain; based on slope displacement - geological disaster prediction module time curve for the relationship between the mechanical advantage of the force and deformation prediction, slope deformation curve Cii with tangential slope angle expressed as shown in equation (I), the
Figure CN102013150BC00031
公式⑴中,i为时间序数,i = 1,2,3, ...,n:ai为累积位移T(i)的切线角, ⑴ formula, i is the number of time series, i = 1,2,3, ..., n: ai is the cumulative displacement T (i) the tangent angle,
Figure CN102013150BC00032
为某一单位时间段内斜坡位移变化量;v为等速变形阶段的位移速率; τα)为变换后与时间相同量纲的纵坐标值山为某一监测时刻;根据式α)计算结果并按下述条件进行判定,当ai < 45时斜坡处于初始变形阶段;当ai〜45时斜坡处于等速变形阶段;45 < Cii <80时为初加速阶段,发出蓝色预警;80 < Cii <85时为中加速阶段,发出橙色预警;QiS 85时为临滑阶段,发出红色预警;基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,用以依照地质灾害的发生受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度,依据土壤中的含水量和变形量进行预测预报的方法得到预测曲线,其中,Kl是较少土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线;中间有K2、K3、K4三条曲线,Κ5是较多土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线;纵坐标表示雨量雨强值预报值、横坐标表示滑坡体的变形量;从所述预测曲线可以知道,对于同样的变形量,最上面的曲线Kl表明,较大的雨量雨强阈值才会弓I发地质灾害发生,中间有Κ2、Κ3、Κ4三条曲线,而最下面的曲线Κ5则表明较小的雨量雨强阈值就会引发地质灾害发生;首先根据监测到的变形量S η在预测曲线中做一条垂直线,可得到与5条曲线相交的5个点,然后根据检测到的土壤的含水量找到与该含水量最接近的2个点,Α2和A3 ;按照线性插值的方式得到在垂直线上的I个点,An ;该An的纵坐标值就是临界雨强预测阈值Υη,根据气象预报的雨量雨强值进行不同的应急措施;由于滑坡体的变形量δ η以及土壤中的含水量An是在不断变化的,预测预报的算法是不断的循环计算的;判断方式是预报雨强值Yf与目前临界雨强预测阈值Yn进行比较,当50% Yn < Yf< 75% Yn时发出蓝色预警,当75% Yn≤Yf < 100% Yn时发出橙色预警,当Yn≤Yf时发出红色预警。 Period of time for a change in slope displacement of the unit; v is the displacement rate constant deformation stage; τα) is transformed mountain ordinates same dimensionless time monitoring for a moment; calculated according to the formula α) and determined under the following conditions, when ai <45 in the initial deformation stage ramp; when ai~45 phase ramp is constant deformation; 45 <Cii <80 when the early acceleration phase emits blue warning; 80 <Cii <85 when the acceleration phase, issued an orange alert; QiS 85 when the Pro slip phase, issued a red alert; based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module for geological disasters in accordance with Since the occurrence of controlled gravity and shear strength of the landslide, according to the soil moisture content and the amount of deformation prediction method to obtain the predicted curve, which, Kl soil moisture content is less rainfall intensity - deformation of geological disaster prediction curve ; middle K2, K3, K4 three curves, Κ5 soil moisture is more rain and strong - deformation of geological disaster prediction curve; the vertical axis represents the value of rainfall forecast rainfall intensity value, the horizontal axis represents the amount of deformation of the landslide; from the predicted curve can know, for the same amount of deformation curve Kl top show larger rain intensity rainfall threshold will bow I made geological disasters, the middle Κ2, Κ3, Κ4 three curves, while the bottom curve Κ5 it indicates a smaller rain rainfall intensity threshold will trigger geological disasters; η first to make a vertical line in the predicted curve based on monitoring the amount of deformation S, get five points and five curves intersect, and then according to the detected The moisture content of the soil and the water content to find the closest two points, Α2 and A3; a linear interpolation way I get in a vertical line points, An; An ordinate values of the predicted rainfall intensity is critical threshold Υη, emergency measures under different rainfall intensity rainfall value meteorological forecasts; due to the amount of deformation δ η landslide and soil moisture is changing An algorithm forecast is constantly circulating calculations; way to judge Rain is forecast for the current intensity value Yf critical threshold predicted rainfall intensity Yn compare blue warning issued when 50% Yn <Yf <75% Yn, issued an orange alert when 75% Yn≤Yf <100% Yn, when Yn ≤Yf red alert is issued.
2.如权利要求1所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述监控中心计算机还包括:基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块,用于利用土壤含水量、土壤含水量的变化率、斜坡变形量和斜坡变形量的变化率信息;斜坡位移变化量和土壤含水量的变化量用公式(2)、(3)进行计算;Λ δ (i) = ( δ (i)- δ (1-1))/Δ t (2)ΔΗ(ΐ) = (H(i)-H(1-1))/At (3)Δ δ⑴为某一单位时间段内斜坡位移变化量,δ⑴为现监测时刻的斜坡位移量,δ (1-1)为上一个监测时刻的斜坡位移量,AH(i)为某一单位时间段内土壤含水量的变化量,H(i)为现监测时刻的土壤含水量,H(1-l)为上一个监测时刻的土壤含水量,At为两次检测时刻的间隔时间;滑坡体的应力和应力变化率的计算方法用公式(4)表示; ο (i) =wXsinaX(l+H(i))/D (4)Δ ο (i) = wXsina X ΔH(i)/D式中,σ (i)为滑坡体的应变力,wX Sina/D为由滑坡体不含水分自重产生的应变力, w为滑坡体不含水分的自重,a为滑坡体所在的斜坡的角度,D为滑坡体垂直于应力方向上的最小截面积,wXsina XH(i)/D为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力,Λ σ (i) 为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力的变化量;用公式(5)来表示土体应力与应变的关系; 2. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system according to claim 1, characterized in that: the monitoring center computer also includes: geological disaster prediction module based on soil moisture and slope deformation for the use of soil water content, rate of change in soil water content, rate of change of slope deformation and slope deformation amount of information; the amount of change in the slope and soil moisture changes in the amount of displacement was calculated using equation (2), (3); Λ δ (i) = (δ (i) - δ (1-1)) / Δ t (2) ΔΗ (ΐ) = (H (i) -H (1-1)) / At (3) Δ δ⑴ slope for a unit period of time the amount of displacement changes, δ⑴ ramp time monitoring the amount of displacement current, δ (1-1) for the displacement of the ramp on a monitoring time, AH (i) for a unit period of soil the amount of change in water content, H (i) for soil moisture monitoring time now, H (1-l) to monitor soil moisture on a moment, At an interval of time between the time of detection; stress and landslide The method of calculating the rate of change of stress (4) represented by the formula; ο (i) = wXsinaX (l + H (i)) / D (4) Δ ο (i) = wXsina X ΔH (i) / D where, σ (i) for landslide resilience, resilience wX Sina / D by landslide generated without water weight, w is the landslide moisture-free weight, a landslide for the angle of the slope where, D for landslide body perpendicular to the direction of stress smallest cross-sectional area, wXsina XH (i) / D by landslide containing only part of the resilience of the water produced, Λ σ (i) by the landslide of water containing only part of the force generated by the strain The variation; using equation (5) shows the relationship between stress and strain of the soil;
Figure CN102013150BC00041
式中,k接近一个常数,用公式(6)表示,k = wX sin a /D (6)为了便于计算,我们将公式(5)改写成公式(J)的形式;K(i) =Kl(i)/k= ΔΗ(ΐ)/Δ δ (i) (7)从公式(J)的等式知道K (i)值的大小主要取决于土壤中的含水量和斜坡位移量的变化值;用应力与应变的变化率的比K(i)值与几个力学控制阈值进行比对判断,算法的主要流程如下;步骤1:读取当前的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,将这些数据保存到多媒体数据库中;步骤2 :判断土壤含水量是否达到11. 5%,未达到的情况转到步骤I ;步骤3 :读取前一个时间的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,用公式(2)、(3)计算斜坡位移变化量△ δ (i)和土壤含水量的变化量ΛΗα),然后用公式(7)计算基于斜坡位移变化量Λ δ (i)和土壤含水量的变化量AH(i)的应力与应变的比值K(i);步骤4 :根据应力与应变的比值K(i)与几个力学控制阈值进行比对,如果K(i) ^KVl 则判断目前处于弹性变形阶段;如果KVl >K(i) ^ KV2则判断目前处于塑性变形阶段,如果土壤含水量的变化量AH(i) SKHl发出橙色预警信息,否则发出蓝色预警信息;如果KV2 > K(i) ^ KV3则判断目前处于塑性变形到破坏的过度阶段,这时发出红色预警信息; 转到步骤I ;上述算法中,KHl是土壤含水量的变化量的控制阈值,KV1、KV2、KV3分别为力学控制阈值,并满足以下关系KVl > KV2 > KV3。 Wherein, k close to a constant, using the formula (6), k = wX sin a / D (6) In order to facilitate the calculation, we will Equation (5) can be rewritten into formula (J) in the form of; K (i) = Kl (i) / k = ΔΗ (ΐ) / Δ δ (i) (7) from the formula (J) to know the size of the equation K (i) value depends primarily on the change in the value of soil moisture and slope displacement ; with the stress and strain rate changes than K (i) a value with a few mechanical control threshold than judgment, the main flow of the algorithm is as follows; Step 1: Read the current soil moisture and slope deformation data, these Save the data to multimedia databases; Step 2: Determine whether the soil moisture 11.5%, does not meet the case, go to step I; Step 3: Read soil moisture and slope deformation amount of data before a time, using the equation (2), the amount of change (3) calculate the amount of slope displacement △ δ (i) and soil water content ΛΗα), then use the formula (7) is calculated based on the amount of change in slope displacement Λ δ (i) and soil moisture changes amount AH (i) the ratio of the stress and strain K (i); Step 4: According to the stress and strain of the ratio K (i) for comparison with a few mechanical control threshold, if K (i) ^ KVl the judgment is now in elastic deformation stage; if KVl> K (i) ^ KV2 is determined that the plastic deformation is currently in phase, if the amount of soil moisture changes AH (i) SKHl issued orange warning information, or issue a blue warning message; if KV2> K ( i) ^ KV3 currently in the plastic deformation is determined to destroy the transitional phase, when the red warning information; go to step I; above algorithm, KHl changes the amount of soil moisture control threshold, KV1, KV2, KV3 respectively for mechanical control threshold, and satisfies the following relationship KVl> KV2> KV3.
3.如权利要求2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述监控中心计算机还包括:决策辅助模块,用于对上述4种预测模块的判定结果进行综合,采用加权平均的方式进行决策辅助,所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块的权重系数分别为O. 5、所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块的权重系数分别为1. 05、所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块的权重系数分别为1. 75、所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块的权重系数分别为1. 2,同时将蓝色预警的量化值定义为3、 橙色预警的量化值定义为6、红色预警的量化值定义为9,用公式(8)计算最终综合判断结果,R= (R1X KJRii X Kn+Rin X Km+RIV X Kiv) / (KJK1JK11JKiv) (8)式中,R1和K1分别为所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R11和K11分别为所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R111和Km分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,Riv和Kiv分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R为最终综合判断计算结果,判断计算结果的数值范围是O〜9,最终判断计算结果用预警颜色、报告、把关和签发管理用表3进行总结,表3辅助决策与预警信号发布流程: 3. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system according to claim 2, wherein: the monitoring center computer also includes: decision support module for the above four kinds of prediction module comprehensive judgment result, the weighted average approach to decision support, based on the right of the rain intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module weight coefficients were O 5, based on the slope of the displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module The weighting coefficients were 1.05, based on the right of soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module weight coefficients were 1.75, based on the amount of deformation of soil moisture and slope geological disaster prediction module The weighting coefficients were 1.2, while the definition of blue warning quantized value is 3, the quantized value is defined as 1.6 orange alert, red alert quantized value is defined as 9, using the formula (8) to calculate the final comprehensive evaluation result , R = (R1X KJRii X Kn + Rin X Km + RIV X Kiv) / (KJK1JK11JKiv) (8) formula, R1 and K1 respectively, based on the rainfall heavy rain and strong geological disaster prediction coefficient prediction module and right, R11 and K11 are based on the slope displacement - time curve prediction module to predict the results of geological disasters and weighting coefficients, R111 and Km were based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity of rainfall prediction module to predict the results of geological disasters and weights described coefficient, Riv and Kiv are based on the geological disasters soil moisture and slope deformation prediction module prediction result and weighting coefficient, R is the final comprehensive judgment results, determination results of the numerical range is O~9, the final determination The results with the warning color, reports, checks and issue management are summarized in Table 3, Table 3, decision support and warning signals publishing process:
Figure CN102013150BC00051
表3 Table 3
4.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统采用雨量事件触发方式,当下雨时,通过自动雨量计的触点开关激活所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统,使得他们立即进入工作状态;当下雨结束后的72小时起,如果没有发生地质灾害情况下监测预测预报系统以及所有的监测装置均进入休眠状态。 4. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensors and embedded systems using the rainfall event trigger, when it rains, the rain gauge contacts by automatically activating the automatic switch gauges, omnidirectional vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded systems, making them immediately into operation; after 72 hours when rain ended play, if geological disasters monitoring and forecasting system does not happen all the monitoring devices are going to sleep.
5.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的太阳能供电单元由太阳能光电转换板、充电电池以及充电电路构成,所述的充电电池的容量满足所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器和所述的嵌入式系统120小时以上的工作时间。 5. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: a solar-powered unit as claimed by the solar photovoltaic panels, rechargeable batteries and charging circuits, The rechargeable battery capacity to meet the automatic rain gauge, over a full range of vision sensors, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded system 120 hours of working time.
6.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的嵌入式系统与所述的监控中心计算机之间的信息交换采用3G无线通信模式。 6. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: the exchange of information embedded system monitoring center said with the adoption of computers 3G wireless communication mode.
7.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的全方位倾斜传感器包括上圆锥体、圆锥形导电线圈、绝缘线、下圆锥体、导线、导电空心管、外壳、无线射频发生单元、电源和水银;圆锥型导电线圈的大小与上圆锥体内部的大小相同,圆锥形导电线圈中由四个不同大小半径的线圈以同一圆心垂直叠放构成一个圆锥体,即用线圈A、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D叠加成一个圆锥形,各线圈之间的距离为Λ,且构成圆锥形导电线圈的每个线圈之间是不导通的,每个线圈都有一个引出线通向上圆锥体的外部,圆锥型导电线圈嵌入在上圆锥体内,嵌入后的圆锥型导电线圈的边缘离上圆锥体的底部的距离为Λ,分别用4芯绝缘线分别焊接在线圈Α、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D的引出线上,下圆锥体4的圆锥尖处插入导电空心管,导电空心管的一段进入下圆锥体的内部,绝缘线穿过导电空心管的内部将绝缘线引到下圆锥体的外部,填入粘结剂使得导电空心管和下圆锥体固定和密封,绝缘线与下圆锥体的内部和导电空心管保持绝缘状态,在下圆锥体中添加水银,水银的容量正好填满下圆锥体,然后将上圆锥体和下圆锥体固定在一起形成密闭的空间,最后用外壳将整个全方位倾斜传感器固定在一起;上圆锥体和下圆锥体采用透明塑料压制而成,与导电空心管连接的导线A和与绝缘线连接的四芯导线B分别引线到外壳上,在全方位倾斜传感器没有感知到倾斜时,导线A和四芯导线B中的任何一芯导线都是不相通的;当全方位倾斜传感器感知到有倾斜时,在下圆锥体内部的水银有一部分流入到上圆锥体内,并与嵌入在圆锥体内的圆锥形导电线圈中的线圈相接触,倾斜角度为0.5时与线圈A相接触,倾斜角度为1时与线圈A和线圈B相接触,倾斜角度为1.5时与线圈A、线圈B和线圈C相接触,倾斜角度为2时与所有的线圈相接触,因此只要任何一个方位出现某一程度的倾斜都会使得导线A和导线B中的某一芯或者多芯导线相通;判断倾斜角度的方法是:若导线A与D线圈之间相通就可以判断这时倾斜的角度在2或者2以上;若导线A与D线圈之间不相通,导线A与线圈C之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在1. 5到2之间;若导线A与D线圈和C线圈之间都不相通,导线A与线圈B之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在1到1. 5之间;若导线A只与线圈A之间导通则判断这时倾斜的角度在O. 5到1之间;若导线A与任何线圈都不导通则判断倾斜的角度在O. 5以下;本发明中将所述5根线作为所述的无线射频发生单元的数据采集端的输入。 7. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: the full range of tilt sensor includes a cone, cone conductive coil, insulated wire lower cone, wires, electrically conductive hollow tube, housing, radio frequency generating unit, power supply and mercury; size conical upper conductive coil with the same size as the inside of the cone, conical electrically conductive coil winding is composed of four different sizes of radii In the same center vertically stacked to form a cone, i.e., coil A, coil B, coil C and D superimposed into a conical coil, the distance between the coils is Λ, and each coil constituting the coils of the conical conductive Room is nonconductive, each coil has an external, conical conductive coil is embedded on the lead line leading to the cone on the cone body, the distance from the bottom edge of the cone-embedded conical conductive coil is Λ, respectively, with four core insulation on the lead wire welded coil Α, coil B, C and coil winding D, the next cone conical tip at 4 conductive insert a hollow tube, conductive hollow tube into the next cone internal, insulated wire through the inside of the hollow tube insulated conductive wire lead to the outside under the cone, so that the inner and the conductive adhesive filled hollow secured and sealed, insulated wire and a conductive lower cone and the lower cone of the hollow tube an insulating tube holding state, the lower cone added mercury, mercury capacity just fill the lower cone, then the upper cone and the lower cone is fixed together to form a closed space, and finally the entire full-tilt sensor housing is fixed in the upper cone and the lower cone pressed transparent plastic, wire A hollow tube is connected to the conductive core wire and four-wire B and insulated lead wires are respectively connected to the housing, in the full tilt sensor does not sense the tilt; together , wires A and B quads any one core wire is not communicating; when full-inclined when the tilt sensor senses that the inside of the lower cone of the mercury flows into the conical part of the body and embedded in the cone vivo conical conductive coil in contact with the coil, when the tilt angle of 0.5 in contact with the coil A, the inclination angle of 1 when in contact with the coil A and coil B, the inclination angle of 1.5 with the coil A, coil coils B and C in contact, the inclination angle of 2 when in contact with all of the coils, so long as any one orientation will appear a certain degree of inclination such that the wire A and wire B in a core or multi-core conductors interlinked; Analyzing The inclination angle is: if communication can determine the inclination angle in this case 2 or 2 or more between the coil wires A and D; if no communication between A and D between the wire coil, with the coil C phase conductor A General Analyzing this case the angle of inclination between 1. 5 to 2 ; if the coil wires A and between D and C coils are not connected, it is judged that communication between the coil wires A and B in this case the angle of inclination 1 between 1. 5 ; if only A guide wire between the coil A judge then General tilt angle between O. 5 to 1 ; if any coil wire A judge does not lead General tilt angle O. 5 or less; in the present invention as the five lines of the input data acquisition wireless radio terminal unit occurs.
8.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的自动雨量计获得每天和每小时雨量雨强的数据,并将数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机。 8. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: said automatic rain gauges get rain every day and every hour rainfall intensity data, and data transmitted to the monitoring center computer in real time.
9.如权利要求1或2所述的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,其特征在于:所述的土壤水分传感器采用电容式土壤水分传感器,将所述的土壤水分传感器垂直插入到松质土壤、松散堆积物的IOCM深处;平时处于休眠状态,在下雨时才触发工作,通过电容式土壤水分传感器能获得土壤中的含水量数据,并将这些数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机。 9. Based on rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster forecast system 1 or claim 2, wherein: soil moisture sensor uses a capacitive sensor soil moisture, soil moisture will be described sensor vertically into the spongy soil, deep IOCM loose deposits; the usually dormant, trigger work when it rains, soil moisture by capacitive sensor can obtain soil moisture data, and transmit the data in real time to the monitoring center said computer.
Description  translated from Chinese

基于雨强、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统 Based on rainfall intensity, geological disaster forecast system slope soil moisture and shape variables

技术领域 FIELD

[0001] 本发明涉及一种基于材料力学、静力学、动力学、计算机软硬件、传感检测等技术的地质灾害监测预测系统。 [0001] The present invention relates to a method based on the mechanics of materials, statics, dynamics geological disaster monitoring and forecasting systems, computer hardware and software, and other sensing technologies.

背景技术 BACKGROUND

[0002] 由于地质环境的多变性,地质灾害发生机理的复杂性、时空演变的随机性和过程的突发性,人类目前还不能有效地对地质灾害进行预测预报,其最根本原因是所采用的技术手段还不具备有效地感知环境的能力。 [0002] Due to the variability of the geological environment, the complexity of the mechanism of geological disasters, sudden temporal evolution of randomness and process, mankind can not effectively carry out geological disaster forecast, the most fundamental reason is the use of The technology does not yet have the ability to effectively perceive the environment.

[0003] 从国家减灾委员会办公室获悉,2010年上半年,我国自然灾害形势呈现出“重大灾害频繁发生,灾害损失巨大”等特点,今年I至6月,全国发生地质灾害19522起,3514人在各类自然灾害中丧生,因灾直接经济损失2113. 9亿元。 [0003] from the National Disaster Reduction Committee Office was informed that the first half of 2010, China's natural disaster situation, showing a "major disasters occur frequently, huge disaster losses," and so this year I to June, 19,522 geological disasters nationwide since 3514 in natural disasters killed tolls direct economic losses of 211.39 billion yuan. 其中各种自然灾害中地质灾害的发生最频繁、受灾面最广、损失最大。 Natural disasters which occur most frequently in the geological disasters, the most widely affected side, the greatest loss. 与2009年I至6月相比,今年同期地质灾害发生数量增长了近10倍。 I compared with 2009 to June, geological disasters occurred earlier this year, an increase of nearly 10 times the amount.

[0004] 地质灾害有三个特点。 [0004] There are three characteristics of geological disasters. 一是点多面广,以滑坡和崩塌为主。 One point wide multi-faceted, with landslides and collapses based. 二是区域性强、规模以小型为主。 Second, strong regional scale with small main. 三是以强降雨引发为主。 Third is mainly caused by heavy rainfall.

[0005] 在监测技术方面,崩塌、滑坡的监测主要集中在地表变形监测、地下变形监测、与滑坡崩塌变形有关的物理量监测,具体监测方法在《中华人民共和国地质矿产行业标准:崩塌、滑坡、泥石流监测规范》中已有明确规定。 [0005] In the monitoring technology, collapse, landslide monitoring focused on surface deformation monitoring, underground deformation monitoring, physical monitoring deformation associated with landslide collapse, specific monitoring methods in the "People's Republic of China Geology and Mineral Industry Standard: collapse, landslide, debris flow monitoring norms "already clearly defined. 除了以上常规监测方法之外,目前比较广泛应用的方法还有TDR变形监测、GPS变形监测、无线网络技术应用于滑坡地下水和裂缝自动连续动态监测。 In addition to these conventional monitoring methods, now more widely used methods include TDR deformation monitoring, GPS deformation monitoring, wireless network technology used in landslide groundwater and crack automatic continuous dynamic monitoring. 泥石流的监测内容则主要分为形成条件(固体物质来源、供水水源等)监测、运动情况(流动动态要素、动力要素和输移冲淤等)监测、流体特征(物质组成及物力化学性质等)监测,具体的监测技术则主要有地声监测、泥位监测和冲击力监测等自动化监测方法。 Debris flow monitoring contents are divided into forming conditions (solid material source, water source, etc.) monitoring movement (flow dynamic factor, power factor and transport erosion, etc.) monitoring, fluid characteristics (material composition and chemical properties of the material, etc.) monitoring, specific monitoring technology is mainly to acoustic monitoring, sludge level monitoring and impact monitoring, automated monitoring method.

[0006] 中国发明专利(专利申请号:200710178762.0)公开了地质灾害降雨监测预警仪,该发明提供一种适合地质灾害气象预警,操作简单,防尘防堵的地质灾害降雨监测预警仪。 [0006] Chinese invention patent (patent number: 200710178762.0) attempts to prevent geological disasters dust monitor rainfall warning device disclosed in geological disaster monitoring rainfall warning device, the invention provides a method for geological disaster weather warning, simple. 其特征是将地质灾害降雨监测与预警有机的结合起来,根据实测的降雨监测值来进行地质灾害预警。 Characterized by the geological disaster monitoring and early warning of rainfall combine organic, based on the measured values of rainfall monitoring for geological disaster warning. 通过液面读数观测降雨量值,通过三角堰监测降雨强度,通过钢丝网防止异物进入承雨口而堵塞管路,通过放水装置防止尘土残留。 By observing the reading level of rainfall values, through triangular weir monitoring rainfall intensity, through steel mesh to prevent foreign matter from entering and clogging the pipe mouth bearing rain, through drainage device prevents dust residues. 中国发明专利(专利申请号:200910058195. 4)公开了一种地质灾害应急监测预报分析方法,通过在已经或预测形成的地质灾害区域内无规则均匀投放一次性雷达应答器,让它在地表上与滑坡山体或泥石流、洪水等一起移动。 Chinese invention patent (patent number: 200910058195.4) discloses a method for analyzing a geological disaster monitoring and forecasting of emergency by geological disasters in the region have been or are predicted to form a non-uniform rules put in a one-time radar transponder on the surface it move with the landslide or debris flow, floods. 通过采用雷达扫描技术,直观快速监测比较雷达应答器的运行轨迹,结合地形、地貌状况进一步分析判断灾害形成的地点、时间,配合降雨量、地震等其它信息得出基本成因,灾害将要影响的地域范围和预测发生的时间段、安全撤离路线等重要信息。 By using radar scanning technology, running track relatively intuitive and fast monitoring radar transponder, combined with topography, further analysis to determine the condition of the formation of the disaster site, time, along with other information rainfall, earthquakes and other derived basic causes of the disaster will affect the region Important information to predict the scope and time period occurred, safe evacuation routes. 中国发明专利(专利申请号:200910241585. 5)公开了地质灾害群测群防多功能尺及其测量方法,该发明包括固定在地面上并随地面刚性转动的测杆和L型托架,L型托架的长边的上部活动挂装有第一测量尺,其短边上沿其长度方向设置有第二测量尺,L型托架上还设置有指南针;L型托架的长边顺延测杆的长度方向贴靠以进行测量,以使第一测量尺根据测杆姿态的改变而绕其上端的挂装点转动,第二测量尺同时测量第一测量尺下部与其相交位置的标度。 Chinese invention patent (patent number: 200910241585.5) discloses a geological disaster monitoring and prevention multifunctional ruler and measurement methods, the invention comprises fixed on the ground floor and with a rigid rotation of the spindle and the L-shaped bracket, L the long side of the upper moving the hanging-bracket with a first measuring scale, which is provided with a second measuring scale short sides along its length, the L-bracket is also provided with a compass; L-bracket longer sides extended the longitudinal direction of the spindle abutment for the measurement, so that a first measuring scale according to the change of the posture and the spindle mount point around its upper end is rotated, the lower portion of the second measurement scale while measuring the position of the first measuring scale intersects scale. 本发明通过测量长度来反算出坡面的倾角,利用指南针测量裂缝方位角,用第一测量尺和第二测量尺测量裂缝相对位移。 The present invention is calculated by measuring the length of the slope inclination to counter the use of the compass azimuth measuring cracks, with the first and second measurement scale measuring tape to measure the relative displacement of the crack. 中国发明专利(专利申请号:200910058196. 9)公开了一种智能型地质灾害综合监测系统及多级预报分析方法,该系统是一种按需可组合、拆卸的,适合于野外安装的监测装置,其安装组合完成后为一杆状物,定时测量并地面无线发射斜坡地下深部变形信息于系统信息分析控制单元,结合采用激光扫描器,定时连续扫描得到监测区域内图像,同时还增设多点定点激光测距仪,对选定物体进行精确测距。 Chinese invention patent (patent number: 200910058196.9) discloses an intelligent integrated geological disaster monitoring system and multi-level forecasting analysis, the system is an on-demand can be combined, demolition and suitable for field installation of monitoring devices After the completion of its installation into a rod-shaped object combinations, timing measurements and terrestrial wireless transmitter deep underground slope deformation information in the system information analysis control unit, combined with the use of laser scanners, timed continuous monitoring of the area within the scanned image, and also added multi-point pointing a laser rangefinder, the selected objects ranging accurate. 它以地质灾害体地下深部变形和地表直接变形位移为主要监测预报依据,结合物理与化学场变化辅助参数与诱发因素,将灾害预报划成预备级、预警级、前期预报级、灾害预报四级,就地一体化地完成监测、分析、预报功能。 It geological disasters deformation and displacement of surface deformation directly deep underground as the main basis for monitoring and forecasting, a combination of physical and chemical changes in the auxiliary field parameters and predisposing factors, the disaster forecast divided into preparatory level, warning level, pre-forecast level, disaster forecast four , local integration to complete monitoring, analysis, forecasting capabilities.

[0007] 上述几项公开的专利技术至少存在着以下几个方面的问题:1)监测方法比较单,从而导致了观测地质灾害发生时的信息不够充分;2)监测手段没有充分考虑地质灾害发生的因果关系,从而导致了难以把握地质灾害发生的前兆;3)所采用的监测仪器比较昂贵,从而导致了很难大规模实施实时动态的地质灾害预测预报;4)尚未采用哲学的思想、材料力学、动力学和静力学的分析方法分析地质灾害的形成机理以及整个地质灾害的发生演变过程,从而导致了难以很好地解释地质灾害发生机理的复杂性、时空演变的随机性和过程的突发性等问题。 [0007] The presence of a number of published patent technology issues at least the following aspects: 1) comparison of a single monitoring methods, which led to the observation of geological disasters occur when information is insufficient; 2) monitoring tool does not fully consider the geological disasters The causal relationship, which led to a precursor of geological disasters is difficult to grasp; and 3) the use of monitoring equipment is more expensive, leading to large-scale geological disaster forecasting is difficult to implement real-time dynamic; 4) have not yet adopted the philosophy of thinking, material mechanics, dynamics and statics analysis method analyzes the evolution of the formation mechanism of geological disasters occur and the entire geological disasters, leading to difficult to properly interpret the geological complexity of the mechanism of disasters, sudden temporal evolution of randomness and process hair and other issues. 任何一个重大自然科学技术的突破几乎都是建立在正确的哲学思想指导基础上的,地质灾害的预测预报同样也需要哲学思想为指导。 A major breakthrough in any natural science and technology are almost always based on a correct philosophical thinking on the basis of geological disaster forecast also need philosophy for guidance.

发明内容 SUMMARY

[0008] 为了克服已有的地质灾害监测预测预报方法上手段比较单一、信息不充分造成预测预报模型不精准;没有考虑地质灾害发生的因果链的关系造成因果关系不清晰;监测仪器昂贵、监测方法比较粗糙造成只能监测某一个局部的地质灾害情况,难以从全局和整体的角度把握地质灾害的本质;没有从地质灾害发生的机理和整个过程进行充分地分解,造成了在宏观、中观和微观不同角度的预测预报以及在灾害发生过程的各个关键时间点的监测等方面难以把握主要关键核心点、等一些问题,本发明提供一种监测手段全面、预测预报精准、智能化程度高、实时在线的基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统。 [0008] In order to overcome the existing geological disaster monitoring forecasting method is relatively simple means, the information is not sufficient cause inaccurate prediction model; there is no cause to consider the relationship between cause and effect relationship is not clear causal chain of geological disasters; expensive monitoring equipment, monitoring The method can only monitor rough geological disasters caused by one local, it is difficult to grasp the essence of geological disasters from the global and holistic perspective; not sufficiently decomposed from the mechanism of geological disasters and the entire process, resulting in the macro, meso and micro forecasting different angles and some of the problems in monitoring all key points in time in terms of the process of disaster is difficult to grasp the core of the main key points, and so on, the present invention provides a comprehensive means of monitoring, forecasting precision, high intelligence, real-time online prediction system based on geological disasters rainfall, soil moisture and slope shape variables.

[0009] 本发明解决其技术问题所采用的技术方案是: [0009] aspect of the present invention is used for solving the technical problems are:

[0010] 一种基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,包括用于监测地质灾害点的雨量雨强的自动雨量计、用于监测地质灾害点土壤中水分的土壤水分传感器、用于检测地质灾害点的地表和内部形变的全方位倾斜传感器、用于评估地质灾害发生规模的全方位视觉传感器、用于无线传输视频以及各种监测数据的嵌入式系统、用于进行地质灾害预测预报的监控中心计算机、用于对所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计供电的太阳能供电单元;所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计与所述的嵌入式系统连接,所述的嵌入式系统通过无线通信方式与监控中心计算机连接,所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计安置在地质灾害发生点的山体上,所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器和所述的嵌入式系统配置在同一根立杆上,所述的土壤水分传感器植入所述的立杆附近的土壤深处; [0010] A geological disaster forecasting system rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation based on point of geological disasters, including for monitoring rainfall intensity rainfall automatic rain gauges for monitoring of geological disasters point of moisture in the soil soil moisture sensor , full tilt sensor for detecting surface geological disasters and internal deformation point for assessing the scale of geological disasters omnidirectional vision sensors for embedded systems and a variety of wireless transmission of video surveillance data for geological monitoring center computer disaster forecast for the full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and said the automatic rain gauge solar power supply unit; omnidirectional vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the automatic rain gauge connected to the embedded systems, embedded systems connected via a wireless communication with the monitoring center computer, the full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and described the automatic rain gauge placed on the mountain above the point of occurrence of geological disasters in the automatic rain gauge, a full range of vision sensors and embedded systems are configured on the same root pole, a soil moisture sensor plant deep into the soil near the pole;

[0011] 所述的全方位倾斜传感器配置在地质灾害发生点的山体上,以形成一个力传感网;每一个全方位倾斜传感器都具有一个反映埋设地点位置的编码号;每一个全方位倾斜传感器之间以及和所述的嵌入式系统之间采用无线通信的方式; [0011] The full range of tilt sensor configured on the mountain geological disasters point to form a force sensor networks; each has a full-tilt sensor buried sites reflect the position of a code number; each full-tilt by way of wireless communication between the embedded system and and between the sensor;

[0012] 所述的监控中心计算机包括: [0012] The monitoring center computer includes:

[0013] 通信模块,用于与所述的嵌入式系统进行基于3G无线通信协议的无线通信以及各种计算机网络通信,接收和传输各种控制数据和监测数据; [0013] communication module, and embedded systems for wireless communication and said various computer-based 3G wireless communication network communication protocol, receiving and transmitting various control data and monitoring data;

[0014] 数据接收模块,用于接收从所述的嵌入式系统传送过来的各种监测数据,所述的监测数据包括雨量雨强数据、土壤水分数据、 现场全景视频数据以及带有地理位置信息的斜坡形变数据;同时将这些数据以采集地点、即地质灾害点的地理位置数据为主键存放在多媒体数据库中;地质灾害点的地理位置数据以该地质灾害点的GPS定位数据进行命名;植入斜坡中的全方位倾斜传感器的地理位置数据以埋设点的GPS定位数据进行命名; [0014] The data receiving module for receiving transmitted from the embedded systems over a variety of monitoring data, monitoring data comprises rainfall intensity of rainfall, soil moisture data, video data as well as a panoramic scene with geographical information slope deformation data; at the same time to collect location data, location data that is the main point of geological disasters multimedia keys stored in the database; geographic data of geological disasters point to GPS location data in the geological hazards are named; implantation Location data ramp to the full range of tilt sensor is embedded GPS location data points are named;

[0015] 基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,用以采用雨量雨强和斜坡形变两种监测数据,如表I所示;采用该模块进行有效准确预测的前提是弄清了该地质灾害点暴发泥石流的临界降雨量,表I为降雨期间不同雨强情况下预警预防措施对应表: [0015] Based on rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module for the use of rainfall rainfall intensity and slope deformation monitoring data of the two, as shown in Table I; prerequisite for effective use of this module is to understand the accurate prediction of the geological hazards outbreak mudslides critical rainfall, Table I for different rainfall intensities correspond early warning precautions during rain:

[0016] [0016]

Figure CN102013150BD00091

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[0017]表 I [0017] Table I

[0018] 表I中,雨强的单位mm/d,雨强在25mm/d以下的为中、小雨,雨强在25〜49. 9mm/d之间的为大雨,雨强在50〜100mm/d之间的为暴雨,雨强超过100mm/d为特大暴雨; [0018] Table I, rain and strong unit mm / d, rain intensity in 25mm / d or less is in the rain, rain intensity between 25~49. 9mm / d of heavy rain, strong rain in 50~100mm / d between the heavy rain, strong rain over 100mm / d of heavy rain;

[0019] 基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块,用于利用材料力学中的受力与形变的关系进行预测的,斜坡变形曲线的斜率利用切线角Cii来表达,如公式(I)所示, [0019] Based on the slope displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module for the relationship between the use of material mechanics force and deformation prediction of slope deformation curve slope of the tangent angle Cii use express, such as formula (I), show,

T(I)-TO-1)^ AT T (I) -TO-1) ^ AT

[0020] "'=arCtan( )=17 [0020] "'= arCtan () = 17

,, (I) ,, (I)

[0021] 公式⑴中,i(i = 1,2,3,...,η)为时间序数:ai为累积位移T (i)的切线角,Τ(ΐ) = ^ψ- AS(i)为某一单位时间段内斜坡位移变化量;V为等速变形阶段的位移速率; [0021] Formula ⑴ in, i (i = 1,2,3, ..., η) is the time sequence number: ai is the cumulative displacement T (i) the tangent angle, Τ (ΐ) = ^ ψ- AS (i ) for a period of time the unit slope displacement variation; V is the displacement rate constant deformation stage;

τα)为变换后与时间相同量纲的纵坐标值山为某一监测时刻; τα) for the vertical axis and time after converting the same value of the mountain for a dimensionless time monitoring;

[0022] 根据式(I)计算结果并按下述条件进行判定, [0022] According to formula (I) according to the following conditions, the calculation result is determined,

[0023] 当ai < 45时斜坡处于初始变形阶段; [0023] When ai <45 when the ramp is in the initial stages of deformation;

[0024] 当ai ^ 45时斜坡处于等速变形阶段; [0024] When the ai ^ 45 ramp at constant deformation stage;

[0025] 45 < Cii <80时为初加速阶段,发出蓝色预警; [0025] 45 <Cii <80 is the initial acceleration phase when issued blue warning;

[0026] 80彡Cii <85时为中加速阶段,发出橙色预警; [0026] 80 San Cii <85 when the acceleration phase, issued an orange alert;

[0027] ai彡85时为临滑阶段,发出红色预警; [0028] 基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,用以依照地质灾害的发生受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度,依据土壤中的含水量和变形量进行预测预报的方法得到预测曲线,如图6所示,其中,Kl是较少土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线,如Kl为土壤中的水分达到1. 5% ;K5是较多土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线,如Κ5为土壤中的水分达到11. 5% ;纵坐标表示雨量雨强值预报值、横坐标表示滑坡体的变形量; For the [0027] ai San temporary slip 85 phase, issued a red alert; [0028] based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall prediction module geological disasters, geological disasters to occur in accordance with controlled and self-gravity landslide shear strength, according to the soil moisture content and the amount of deformation prediction method to obtain the predicted curve, as shown in Figure 6, where, Kl soil moisture content is less rainfall intensity - deformation curves of geological disaster prediction, as Kl for soil moisture to reach 1. 5%; K5 soil moisture content is more rain intensity - deformation curve prediction of geological disasters, such as soil moisture Κ5 reached 11.5%; vertical axis represents the value of rainfall forecast rainfall intensity value, The abscissa represents the amount of deformation of the landslide;

[0029] 从所述预测曲线可以知道,对于同样的变形量,最上面的曲线Kl表明,较大的雨量雨强阈值才会引发地质灾害发生,中间有Κ2、Κ3、Κ4三条曲线,而最下面的曲线Κ5则表明较小的雨量雨强阈值就会引发地质灾害发生;首先根据监测到的变形量δ η在预测曲线中做一条垂直线,可得到与5条曲线相交的5个点,然后根据检测到的土壤的含水量找到与该含水量最接近的2个点,Α2和A3 ;按照线性插值的方式得到在垂直线上的I个点,An ;该八11的纵坐标值就是临界雨强预测阈值Υη,根据气象预报的雨量雨强值进行不同的应急措施;由于滑坡体的变形量S η以及土壤中的含水量An是在不断变化的,预测预报的算法是不断的循环计算的; [0029] from the predicted curve can know, for the same amount of deformation curve Kl top show larger rain intensity rainfall threshold will lead to geological disasters, the middle Κ2, Κ3, Κ4 three curves, and the most The following graph indicates lesser rainfall Κ5 rain intensity threshold will trigger geological disasters; First, according to the amount of deformation monitoring to predict the curve δ η do in a vertical line, get five points and five curves intersect, Then find the basis of the detected water content and the water content of the soil closest two points, Α2 and A3; manner in accordance with linear interpolation in a vertical line of points I, An; ordinate is the value of eight 11 Critical forecast rainfall intensity threshold Υη, emergency measures under different rainfall intensity rainfall value meteorological forecasts; due to the amount of deformation η S landslide and soil moisture is changing An algorithm forecast is constantly circulating computing;

[0030] 判断方式是预报雨强值Yf与目前临界雨强预测阈值Yn进行比较,当50% Yn < Yf< 75% Yn时发出蓝色预警,当75% Yn彡Yf < 100% Yn时发出橙色预警,当Yn彡Yf时发出红色预警。 [0030] The way to judge the value Yf forecast rainfall intensity and rainfall intensity predicted current critical threshold Yn compare blue warning issued when 50% Yn <Yf <75% Yn, issued when 75% Yn San Yf <100% Yn orange alert, red alert, when Yn San Yf.

[0031] 作为优选的一种方案:所述监控中心计算机还包括:基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块,用于利用土壤含水量、土壤含水量的变化率、斜坡变形量和斜坡变形量的变化率等信息;斜坡位移变化量和土壤含水量的变化量用公式(2)、(3)进行计算; [0031] As a preferred solution: the monitoring center computer also includes: Based on the amount of soil moisture and slope deformation geological disaster prediction module for use of soil water content, rate of change in soil water content, the amount of deformation and slope rate of change of slope deformation and other information; the amount of displacement of the change and the change in the slope of soil moisture using equation (2), (3) is calculated;

[0032] Δ δ (i) = ( δ (i) - δ (i~l)) / At (2) [0032] Δ δ (i) = (δ (i) - δ (i ~ l)) / At (2)

[0033] ΔΗ(ΐ) = (H(i)-H(1-1))/At (3) [0033] ΔΗ (ΐ) = (H (i) -H (1-1)) / At (3)

[0034] Δ δ (i)为某一单位时间段内斜坡位移变化量,δ (i)为现监测时刻的斜坡位移量,δ (1-1)为上一个监测时刻的斜坡位移量,AH(i)为某一单位时间段内土壤含水量的变化量,H(i)为现监测时刻的土壤含水量,H(1-l)为上一个监测时刻的土壤含水量,At为两次检测时刻的间隔时间; [0034] Δ δ (i) for a unit change amount of displacement ramp period, δ (i) for the displacement of the ramp current monitoring time, δ (1-1) for the displacement of the ramp on a monitoring time, AH (i) the amount of change for a unit period of soil moisture, H (i) is the present moment of soil moisture monitoring, H (1-l) to monitor soil moisture on a moment, At for two detection time interval;

[0035] 滑坡体的应力和应力变化率的计算方法用公式(4)表示; Calculation of stress and stress rate of change [0035] landslide using equation (4);

[0036] ο (i) =wXsina X(l+H(i))/D (4) [0036] ο (i) = wXsina X (l + H (i)) / D (4)

[0037] A σ ⑴=wX sin a X Δ H(i) /D [0037] A σ ⑴ = wX sin a X Δ H (i) / D

[0038] 式中,σ (i)为滑坡体的应变力,wXsina/D为由滑坡体不含水分自重产生的应变力,w为滑坡体不含水分的自重,a为滑坡体所在的斜坡的角度,D为滑坡体垂直于应力方向上的最小截面积,wXsina XH(i)/D为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力,δ σ α)为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力的变化量; [0038] where, σ (i) for landslide resilience, wXsina / D by the resilience of the landslide generated without water weight, w is moisture-free weight landslide, a ramp where the landslide angle, D for landslide stress direction perpendicular to the smallest cross-sectional area, wXsina XH (i) / D by landslide containing only part of the resilience of the water produced, δ σ α) ground water containing only part of the landslide the amount of change in the force generated by the strain;

[0039] 用公式(5)来表示土体应力与应变的关系; [0039] using equation (5) shows the relationship between stress and strain of the soil;

[0040] Kl (i) = Δ σ (i) / Δ δ (i) = wX sin a X Δ H(i) /DX Δ δ (i) = kX Δ H(i) /Δ δ ⑴(5) [0040] Kl (i) = Δ σ (i) / Δ δ (i) = wX sin a X Δ H (i) / DX Δ δ (i) = kX Δ H (i) / Δ δ ⑴ (5)

[0041] 式中,k接近一个常数,用公式(6)表示, [0041] wherein, k is a constant close to, is represented by the formula (6),

[0042] k = wXsin a/D (6) [0042] k = wXsin a / D (6)

[0043] 为了便于计算,我们将公式(5)改写成公式(J)的形式; [0044] K(i) =Kl(i)/k= ΔΗ(ΐ)/Δ δ (i) (7) [0043] For ease of calculation, we will Equation (5) can be rewritten into formula (J) in the form; [0044] K (i) = Kl (i) / k = ΔΗ (ΐ) / Δ δ (i) (7)

[0045] 从公式(J)的等式知道K(i)值的大小主要取决于土壤中的含水量和斜坡位移量的变化值;用应力与应变的变化率的比K(i)值与几个力学控制阈值进行比对判断,算法的主要流程如下; [0045] From the formula (J) Equation know K (i) value of the size depends on the change in the value of soil moisture and slope displacement amount of; (i) the value of rate of change of ratio of stress to strain and K Several mechanical control threshold for comparison to determine the main flow algorithm is as follows;

[0046] 步骤1:读取当前的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,将这些数据保存到多媒体数据库中; [0046] Step 1: Read the current soil moisture and slope deformation data, save the data to a multimedia database;

[0047] 步骤2 :判断土壤含水量是否达到11. 5%,未达到的情况转到步骤I ; [0047] Step 2: Determine whether the soil moisture content 11.5%, does not meet the case, go to step I;

[0048] 步骤3 :读取前一个时间的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,用公式(2)、(3)计算斜坡位移变化量△ δ (i)和土壤含水量的变化量ΛΗα),然后用公式(7)计算基于斜坡位移变化量△ S (i)和土壤含水量的变化量AH(i)的应力与应变的比值K(i); [0048] Step 3: Read soil moisture and slope deformation amount of data before a time, using the equation (2), the amount of change (3) calculate the amount of slope displacement △ δ (i) and soil water content ΛΗα), Then equation (7) to calculate the ratio of the amount of change in slope displacement △ S (i) changes in soil moisture and the amount of AH (i) of the stress and strain-based K (i);

[0049] 步骤4:根据应力与应变的比值K(i)与几个力学控制阈值进行比对,如果K(i)彡KVl则判断目前处于弹性变形阶段;如果KVl >K(i)彡KV2则判断目前处于塑性变形阶段,如果土壤含水量的变化量AH(i) SKHl发出橙色预警信息,否则发出蓝色预警信息;如果KV2 > K(i) ^ KV3则判断目前处于塑性变形到破坏的过度阶段,这时发出红色预警信息;转到步骤I ; [0049] Step 4: According to the stress and strain of the ratio K (i) with a few mechanical control threshold for comparison, if K (i) the judgment is currently in San KVl elastic deformation stage; if KVl> K (i) San KV2 the judge is currently in the stage of plastic deformation, if the amount of change in soil water content AH (i) SKHl issued orange warning information, or issue a blue warning message; if KV2> K (i) ^ KV3 currently in the plastic deformation is determined to destroy the transitional phase, when the red warning information; go to step I;

[0050] 上述算法中,KHl是土壤含水量的变化量的控制阈值,KV1、KV2、KV3分别为力学控制阈值,并满足以下关系KVl > KV2 > KV3。 [0050] In the above algorithm, KHl changes the amount of soil moisture control threshold, KV1, KV2, KV3 mechanical control threshold respectively, and satisfy the following relationships KVl> KV2> KV3.

[0051] 作为优选的另一种方案:所述监控中心计算机还包括:决策辅助模块,用于对上述4种预测模块的判定结果进行综合,采用加权平均的方式进行决策辅助,所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块的权值系数分别为O. 5、所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块的权值系数分别为1. 05、所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块的权值系数分别为1. 75、所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块的权值系数分别为1. 2,同时将蓝色预警的量化值定义为3、橙色预警的量化值定义为6、红色预警的量化值定义为9,用公式(8)计算最终综合判断结果, [0051] Another preferred solution: the monitoring center computer also includes: decision support module for judging the results of these four kinds of prediction module integrated, using a weighted average approach to decision support, based on the weight coefficient rain intensity rainfall prediction module geological disasters were O. 5, based on the displacement of the slope - the geological disaster prediction module time curve weight coefficients were 1.05, based on the soil water content rain intensity rainfall prediction module geological disasters right value coefficients were 1.75, based on soil moisture and geological disaster prediction module slope deformation coefficient of the weights were 1.2, while the blue warning quantized value is defined as 3, the quantized value is defined as six orange alert, red alert quantization values are defined as 9, is calculated using equation (8) the final comprehensive evaluation result,

[0052] R= (R1X KfR11 X Kn+Rm X Km+RIV X Kiv) / (KfK1JUKiv) (8) [0052] R = (R1X KfR11 X Kn + Rm X Km + RIV X Kiv) / (KfK1JUKiv) (8)

[0053] 式中,R1和K1分别为所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R11和K11分别为所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,Rm和Km分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,Riv和Kiv分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R为最终综合判断计算结果,判断计算结果的数值范围是O〜9,最终判断计算结果用预警颜色、报告、把关和签发管理用表3进行总结,表3辅助决策与预警信号发布流程: [0053] formula, R1 and K1 respectively, based on the rainfall heavy rain and strong geological disaster prediction coefficient prediction module and right, R11 and K11 are based on the slope of displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction result prediction module and weight coefficient, Rm and Km are described based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity of rainfall prediction module to predict the results of geological disasters and weighting coefficients, Riv and Kiv are described based on the amount of soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disasters prediction module prediction results and the weighting factor, R is the final comprehensive judgment results, determination results of the numerical range is O~9, the final determination results with warning color, reporting, checks and issuing management summarized in Table 3, Table 3 auxiliary Decision and warning signals publishing process:

[0054] [0054]

Figure CN102013150BD00121

[0055] 表3 [0055] Table 3

[0056] 进一步,所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统采用雨量事件触发方式,当下雨时,通过自动雨量计的触点开关激活所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统,使得他们立即进入工作状态;当下雨结束后的72小时起,如果没有发生地质灾害情况下监测预测预报系统以及所有的监测装置均进入休眠状态;。 [0056] Further, the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensors, and embedded systems using the rainfall event trigger, when it rains, automatic rain gauge contact switch activating the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded systems, making them immediately into operation; when 72 hours after the end of the rains since, if no geological disasters case monitoring and forecasting system monitoring devices are all going to sleep;.

[0057] 所述的太阳能供电单元由太阳能光电转换板、充电电池以及充电电路构成,所述的充电电池的容量满足所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器和所述的嵌入式系统120小时以上的工作时间。 [0057] The solar-powered unit consists of solar photovoltaic panels, rechargeable batteries and a charging circuit, charging the battery capacity to meet the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded systems than 120 hours of work.

[0058] 所述的嵌入式系统与所述的监控中心计算机之间的信息交换采用3G无线通信模式。 [0058] The embedded system of information exchange with the monitoring center between computers using 3G wireless communication mode.

[0059] 所述的全方位倾斜传感器包括上圆锥体、圆锥形导电线圈、绝缘线、下圆锥体、导线、导电空心管、外壳、无线射频发生单元、电源和水银;圆锥型导电线圈的大小与上圆锥体内部的大小相同,圆锥形导电线圈中由四个不同大小半径的线圈以同一圆心垂直叠放构成一个圆锥体,即用线圈A、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D叠加成一个圆锥形,各线圈之间的距离为Δ,且构成圆锥形导电线圈的每个线圈之间是不导通的,每个线圈都有一个引出线通向上圆锥体的外部,圆锥型导电线圈嵌入在上圆锥体内,嵌入后的圆锥型导电线圈的边缘离上圆锥体的底部的距离为Λ,分别用4芯绝缘线分别焊接在线圈Α、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D的引出线上,下圆锥体的圆锥尖处插入导电空心管,导电空心管的一段进入下圆锥体的内部,绝缘线穿过导电空心管的内部将绝缘线引到下圆锥体的外部,填入粘结剂使得导电空心管和下圆锥体固定和密封,绝缘线与下圆锥体的内部和导电空心管保持绝缘状态,在下圆锥体中添加水银,水银的容量正好填满下圆锥体,然后将上圆锥体和下圆锥体固定在一起形成密闭的空间,最后用外壳将整个全方位倾斜传感器固定在一起;上圆锥体和下圆锥体采用透明塑料压制而成,与导电空心管连接的导线A和与绝缘线连接的四芯导线B分别引线到外壳上,在全方位倾斜传感器没有感知到倾斜时,导线A和四芯导线B中的任何一芯导线都是不相通的;当全方位倾斜传感器感知到有倾斜时,在下圆锥体内部的水银有一部分流入到上圆锥体内,并与嵌入在圆锥体内的圆锥形导电线圈中的线圈相接触,倾斜角度为0.5时与线圈A相接触,倾斜角度为1时与线圈A和线圈B相接触,倾斜角度为1.5时与线圈A、线圈B和线圈C相接触,倾斜角度为2时与所有的线圈相接触,因此只要任何一个方位出现某一程度的倾斜都会使得导线A和导线B中的某一芯或者多芯导线相通;判断倾斜角度的方法是:若导线A与D线圈之间相通就可以判断这时倾斜的角度在2或者2以上;若导线A与D线圈之间不相通,导线A与线圈C之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在 [0059] The tilt sensor includes a full range cone, cone-shaped conductive coil, insulated wire, under the cone, wires, conductive hollow pipe, casing, radio frequency generating unit, power supply and mercury; conical conductive coil size On the inside of the cone with the same size, a conical conductive coil by coil four different sizes of the same circle radii are stacked vertically to form a cone, i.e., coil A, coil B, coil C and D superimposed into a conical coil shaped, the distance between the coils is Δ, and between each of the coils constituting the conductive coil is a conical non-conductive, each coil has a lead line leading to an external, conical conductive coil is embedded in the cone the conical body, on the bottom of the cone from the edge-embedded coil from the conical-type conductivity is Λ, respectively insulated core wire 4 are welded to the lead wire coil Α, coil B, coil C and D of the coils, under Tapered at the tip of the cone is inserted conductive hollow tube, conductive hollow tube into the interior of the next period of the cone, insulated wire through the hollow tube of the inner conductor insulated wire lead external to the cone, so that the conductive binder filled and a conductive hollow interior hollow tube and the lower cone secured and sealed, insulated wire and tube holding lower cone insulation state, the lower cone added mercury, mercury capacity just fill the lower cone, and then the upper and lower cone cone fixed together to form the closed space, and finally the entire full-tilt sensor housing are secured together; upper cone and the lower cone pressed transparent plastic, wire A is connected to the conductive hollow tube and connected to insulated wire B are four-conductor wire to the housing, in the full tilt sensor is not perceived tilt, four-conductor wire A and B in any one of the core wire is not connected; when full-tilt sensor senses tilt When the next cone inside the mercury flows into the conical part of the body, and in contact with the conical body embedded in the conical conductive coil in a coil, the inclination angle of 0.5 while in contact with the coil A, the inclination angle of 1 When the coil A and the coil B into contact, when the inclination angle of 1.5 while in contact with the coil A, coil B, and coil C, the inclination angle of 2 in contact with all of the coils, so long as any one orientation appears to a certain extent A tilt will make wire and wire B in a core or multi-core wire connected; determine the tilt angle is: if you can determine interlinked then tilt angle between 2 or 2 A and D coil wire above; if not connected between A and D coil wire between the wire and the coil C A judge then communicates the tilt angle

1.5到2之间;若导线A与D线圈和C线圈之间都不相通,导线A与线圈B之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在1到1. 5之间;若导线A只与线圈A之间导通则判断这时倾斜的角度在O. 5到1之间;若导线A与任何线圈都不导通则判断倾斜的角度在O. 5以下;本发明中将所述5根线作为所述的无线射频发生单元的数据采集端的输入。 Between 1.5 to 2 ; if the coil wires A between D and C are not in communication with the coil, between the coil wires A and B in communication is determined in this case the angle of inclination between 1 to 1. 5 ; if A guide wire between the coil and only General A judge then tilt angle between O. 5 to 1 ; if any coil wire A general rule is not to determine the tilt angle of the guide in the O. 5 or less; in the present invention as the five lines of data acquisition input end of said radio frequency generating unit.

[0060] 所述的无线射频发生单元包括MCU和无线收发芯片,MCU与无线收发芯片通过SPI总线连接,二者构成无线传输模块,将检测到的倾斜角度数据传输给所述的嵌入式系统,通信方式为ZigBee技术;所述的MCU是STC89LE516AD单片机,为51内核增强型8位单片机,与IntelMCS51系列单片机完全兼容。 [0060] The radio frequency generating unit and includes a wireless transceiver chip MCU, MCU and wireless transceiver chip is connected via the SPI bus, which constitute the wireless transmission module, the embedded system of the detected inclination angle to said data transmission, ZigBee technology for communication; wherein the microcontroller MCU is STC89LE516AD for 51 core enhanced 8-bit microcontroller, is fully compatible with IntelMCS51 family of microcontrollers. STC89LE516AD有丰富的片上存储功能,具有64KBFlash和512字节RAM。 STC89LE516AD has a wealth of on-chip memory function, with 64KBFlash and 512 bytes of RAM. 单片机自身固化有ISP程序,通过串口下载程序;所述的导线A和所述的线圈A、B、C、D均接入到STC89LE516AD单片机的并行口,用所述的导线A和所述的线圈A之间的导通作为外部中断源,只有在所述的导线A和所述的线圈A之间的导通情况下唤醒所述的无线射频发生单元,没有倾斜发生时所述的无线射频发生单元处于休眠模式状态; SCM has solidified itself ISP program, download the program via the serial port; the wires of the coils A and A, B, C, D have access to STC89LE516AD microcontroller parallel port, with the A and the wire coil A conduction between the source as an external interrupt, only a wake-up radio frequency generating unit, wherein in the conductive case and the conductor A between the coils A, no tilting of the radio frequency occurs unit is in Sleep Mode;

[0061] 在全方位倾斜传感器的单片机包括初始化程序模块、检测程序模块和发射程序模块,初始化程序模块对单片机、射频芯片、SPI等进行处理;检测程序模块检测和判定倾斜角,并将检测到的倾斜角数据与检测时间和反映埋设地点位置的编码号等信息进行打包;发射程序模块将建立的数据包通过单片机SPI接口送至射频发生模块输出;所述的嵌入式系统接收从所述的全方位倾斜传感器中射频发生模块发送过来的监测数据,并将这些数据传输给所述的监控中心计算机。 [0061] In the full-tilt sensor device contains initialization program modules, test modules and launch program module initialization program module microcontroller, RF chip, SPI and other processing; detection program module to detect and determine the tilt angle, and detected tilt angle detection time data and reflect the position of the buried location code number and other information package; launch a program module will establish a packet through the SPI interface to the microcontroller output RF generator module; embedded system according to the received from the full-tilt module monitoring data sent from the RF sensor happen, and the monitoring center computer data transmission to said.

[0062] 所述的自动雨量计获得每天和每小时雨量雨强的数据,并将数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机。 [0062] The automatic rain gauge to obtain daily and hourly rainfall intensity of rainfall data and real-time data transmission to the monitoring center computer.

[0063] 所述的土壤水分传感器采用电容式土壤水分传感器,将所述的土壤水分传感器垂直插入到松质土壤、松散堆积物的IOCM深处;平时处于休眠状态,在下雨时才触发工作,通过电容式土壤水分传感器能获得土壤中的含水量数据,并将这些数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机。 Soil moisture sensor [0063] described the use of capacitive soil moisture sensors, soil moisture sensors vertically inserted into the spongy soil, deep IOCM loose deposits; and usually dormant, in the rain when the trigger work By capacitive soil moisture sensor can be obtained soil moisture data, and the data transmitted in real time to said monitoring center computer.

[0064] 本发明的技术构思为:要破解这个地质灾害预测预报世界性的难题,必须从地质灾害形成机理出发、从整个地质灾害的孕育、发展和发生演变过程着手、从地质灾害发生的内因和外因关系、从地质灾害发生的普遍性和特殊性关系、从量变到质变的原理进行全面的综合分析,从地质灾害监测预测预报角度把握具有普遍性的、核心关键问题。 [0064] technical concept of the present invention is: To crack this geological disaster forecast worldwide problem, we must proceed from the formation mechanism of geological disasters, from birth to the entire geological disasters, the development and the occurrence of evolution to proceed, internal geological disasters from happening and external relations, the relationship between universality and particularity of geological disasters, from quantitative to qualitative principle of comprehensive and integrated analysis, to grasp the core of the key issues from a universal perspective of geological disaster monitoring forecast.

[0065] 量变与质变的哲学思想给我们的启示是:1)地质灾害的发生不可避免的,人类惟一能做的事情是如何有效地防灾、避灾、减灾和救灾;2)要对地质灾害进行预测预报就必须准确把握引起地质灾害质变时的度,科学的监测手段以及根据当地具体情况准确地设定质变时的度是十分重要的;3)从系统论的观点,地质灾害属于一种自组织临界开放系统,发生质变时的临界状态(自组织临界特性)的识别是非常关键的。 [0065] quantitative and qualitative change in the philosophy of Enlightenment are: 1) the occurrence of geological disasters inevitable, the only human thing to do is how to effectively disaster prevention, disaster prevention, mitigation and relief; 2) To geology disasters, forecasting must grasp the degree of geological disasters caused by a qualitative change when, scientific monitoring tools and qualitative degree accurately set the time according to local conditions is very important; 3) from the system theory point of view, belongs to a geological disasters kinds of self-organized criticality open system, a qualitative change in the critical state when the (self-organized criticality) identification is critical. [0066] 内因和外因关系的哲学思想给我们的启示是:1)准确的排查出地质灾害点的基础工作十分重要,必须从地质、地貌、水文、植被、土壤等情况进行深入调查,取得相关数据,尤其是斜坡的角度、松质土壤、松散堆积物的厚度和规模以及斜坡周围的地貌;2)有时外因能引起事物质的变化,统计数据也表明,极大部分的地质灾害都是由于强降雨造成的,在地质灾害点进行强降雨的预警预报工作是必要的而且是十分有效的;3)根据外因通过内因起作用的观点,只有在一定坡度以上存在着有松质土壤、松散堆积物情况下,强降雨等外界作用使得松质土壤、松散堆积物含水量增加以及土壤与山体之间的抗剪力减小,从而导致了地质灾害的发生,从这个观点来看,斜坡土壤中的含水量的大小与地质灾害发生直接相关,而强降雨与地质灾害发生间接相关;用土壤中的含水量进行预测预报要比强降雨的预警预报会更精准些;4)根据内因和外因互相转化的观点,地震发生、水流水压发生变化、历史上的地质灾害发生规模和时间等等,在某种程度上都会改变或者影响着地质灾害点的内因,建模时必须考虑这些因素,需要将这些因素归纳在历史因素中;另外,预测预报模型建立好以后不是一成不变的,需要根据实际情况进行修正。 [0066] philosophy of internal and external relations of the Enlightenment are: 1) an accurate investigation of the foundation work is very important geological hazards, you must conduct a thorough investigation from geology, geomorphology, hydrology, vegetation, soil, etc., to obtain the relevant data, especially the slope angle, spongy soil, size and thickness and topography surrounding slopes of loose deposits; 2) can sometimes cause changes in external things matter, statistics also show that the vast majority of geological disasters are due heavy rainfall caused geological disasters point forecasting heavy rainfall warning is necessary and is very effective; 3) external viewpoint through internal work, and only in certain slope above there have spongy soil, loose deposits Under the circumstances, heavy rainfall and other external effects make spongy soil, loose deposits increased water content and soil shear strength and the mountain is reduced, leading to geological disasters, from this point of view, the slope of the soil The size and moisture content is directly related to geological disasters, while heavy rainfall and indirectly related to geological disasters; performed better than forecast heavy rainfall with soil moisture content would be more accurate early warning and forecast more; 4) into each other according to internal and external causes point of view, the earthquake, the water pressure changes, the size and timing of geological disasters in history, etc. occur, or will change in some way affects the internal point of geological disasters, these factors must be considered when modeling, you need to These factors are summarized in the historical factors; in addition, after a good prediction model is not static, needs to be amended in accordance with the actual situation.

[0067] 从普遍性和特殊性的关系上,哲学给我们的启示是:1)虽然各个地质灾害点发生地质灾害的趋势、模式相类似,但是针对某个地质灾害点还需要具体情况具体分析;2)根据“矛盾特殊性=矛盾普遍性+区别与同类事物的特点”的公式,首先必须抽取出描述地质灾害发生的一般规律的数学模型,该部分的数学模型是相对不变的;然后要根据“区别与同类事物的特点”来修正数学模型,以体现各个地质灾害点的特殊性;3)发生地质灾害的内因和外因是不断在变化的,这些变化中的内因和外因属于“区别与同类事物的特点”,因此建立的预测预报数学模型也必须适应发生地质灾害的内因和外因的变化;4)地质灾害的预测预报必须把握主要矛盾和矛盾的主要方面,斜坡体的变形以及强降雨造成的土壤含水量增加是地质灾害的直接诱因就是形成地质灾害的主要矛盾和矛盾的主要方面;实时监测斜坡体的变形、滑坡体土壤的水分和雨量雨强是进行科学预测预报的关键。 [0067] From the relationship between universality and particularity, Enlightenment philosophy is: 1) Trends Although each geological hazards geological disasters, a similar pattern, but for a certain geological hazards also need specific conditions ; 2) according to the "contradiction contradictory universality particularity = + differences between the characteristics of the same things," the formula, you must first extract the description of the general laws of geological disasters in the mathematical model, the mathematical model of the part is relatively constant; and according to "the difference between the characteristics of similar things," to correct a mathematical model to reflect the special nature of the various geological hazards; and 3) geological disasters internal and external factors are constantly changing, and these changes in the internal and external factors are "the difference with similar characteristics of things "and therefore the mathematical model prediction must also adapt to changes in internal and external causes of geological disasters; forecasting 4) geological disasters must grasp the main aspects of the major contradictions and conflicts, as well as a strong body deformation slope increase soil moisture due to rain is the main aspect is the direct cause of the formation of geological disasters geological disasters principal contradiction and conflict; the real-time monitoring of slope deformation body landslide soil moisture and rainfall rainfall intensity is the key to scientific prediction forecasts.

[0068] 要精准地预测预报必须牢牢把握雨量雨强的度、土壤含水量的度以及土壤形变的度,它们这三个度之间存在着明显的因果关系。 [0068] To accurately forecast rain must firmly grasp the degree of intensity of the rainfall, soil moisture, and the degree of deformation of the soil, there is a clear causal relationship between them, the three degrees. 作为一个地质灾害点来说,地质灾害的发生主要受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度;作为一个地质灾害区域来说,地质灾害的发生不仅仅受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度,还受控于其他直接相邻的地质灾害点的发生情况,尤其是斜坡的上方发生的地质灾害情况;因此,也必须充分考虑到地质灾害的因果链之间的相互联系,①从直接诱因的强降雨一②斜坡体土壤中水分增加一③斜坡体的自重增加和斜坡体与山体之间的抗剪力减小一④斜坡体的向下滑落力与抗剪力处于临界状态一⑤斜坡体发生塑性变形一⑥失稳状态一⑦任何一个小的扰动将在最薄弱的点(处于临界状态的点)引发塌方滑坡地质灾害一⑧斜坡体与山体发生破坏性分裂一⑨这个点的塌方滑坡导致相邻斜坡体失稳牵动附近周围接近临界状态的斜坡体,爆发大规模的地质灾害(类似于沙滩模型);本发明中将地质灾害的发生过程以及因果链分解为上述9个节点,为了实现精准地实现地质灾害的预测预报,必须从大规模地质灾害发生的因果链上的每一个节点上建立相对应的力学模型,为事件驱动和模型驱动的地质灾害预测预报提供理论基础。 As a geological disaster point, geological disasters mainly controlled self-gravity and shear strength of the landslide; as a geological disaster area, the geological disasters is not only controlled by the self-gravity and anti-landslide shear strength, also controlled by the occurrence of other directly adjacent geological hazards, especially in the upper slope of geological disasters occur; therefore, it must be fully taken into account the causal chain linkages between geological disasters, ① from heavy rainfall ② direct cause of a slope soil moisture increase body weight increases the shear strength and slope body and a mountain slope ③ body decreases downward slide between shear force and force a ④ slope of a body in a critical state ⑤ plastic deformation of a slope body ⑥ ⑦ an unstable state of any small perturbation will be the weakest point (in a critical state points) triggered a landslide landslide hazard ⑧ mountain slopes body and a devastating split ⑨ this point The collapse led to the landslide body adjacent slope instability affecting the surrounding neighborhood close to the critical state of the slope body, the outbreak of large-scale geological disasters (like the beach model); causal chain processes occur and geological disasters in the present invention is divided into the above 9 node, in order to achieve precise realization of geological disaster forecast, we must establish the corresponding mechanical model from every node in the causal chain of large-scale geological disasters, provide a theoretical basis for the event-driven and model-driven geological disaster forecast .

[0069] 本发明的有益效果为:通过基于雨强、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测预报方法建立一种重大地质灾害应急处置体系和指挥系统,实现快速、高效、科学、有序地处置重大地质灾害,最大限度地减少地质灾害对人类造成的损失。 [0069] The present invention is a beneficial effect: by rain intensity based on geological disasters soil moisture and slope deformation prediction method for predicting the establishment of a major geological disaster emergency response system and command system for fast, efficient, scientific and orderly disposal of major geological disasters, geological disasters to minimize the loss of human-caused. 使得受地质灾害威胁的群众能提高“自我识别、自我监测、自我预报、自我防范、自我应急和自我救治”的能力;使得政府决策指挥部门能提高“快调查、快监测、快定性、快论证、快决策和快实施”的水平。 Making people threatened by geological disasters can improve "self-recognition, self-monitoring, self-prediction, self-protection, self-treatment and self-emergency" capability; allows government departments to improve the decision-making command "quick survey, quick monitoring, fast qualitative and quick demonstration , quick decisions and quick implementation of the "level.

附图说明 Brief Description

[0070] 图1为基于雨强、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测预报分析地质灾害发生的内外因关系图; [0070] Figure 1 is based on rainfall intensity, soil moisture and the slope of geological disasters in the prediction of deformation due to the relationship between internal and external analysis of geological disasters map;

[0071] 图2为地质灾害发生的力学模型; [0071] Figure 2 mechanical model for geological disasters occur;

[0072] 图3为地质灾害的发生演变过程力学模型; [0072] Figure 3 the evolution of the mechanical model for geological disasters occur;

[0073] 图4为地质灾害发生的几个主要观测点; [0073] Figure 4 observation points occurred several major geological disasters;

[0074] 图5为地质灾害点各种传感器的安置不意图; [0074] Figure 5 shows a variety of geological hazards are not intended placement of sensors;

[0075] 图6为基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测的关系曲线; [0075] FIG. 6 is based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall geological disasters predicted curve;

[0076] 图7为一种用于监测塌方等地质灾害的力传感网构建图; [0076] Figure 7 for monitoring landslides and other geological disasters force sensor network construction diagram;

[0077] 图8为一种高精度监测塌方等地质灾害的力传感网构建图; [0077] Figure 8 is a high-precision monitoring of landslides and other geological disasters force sensor network construction diagram;

[0078] 图9为一种自动雨量雨强计的示意图; [0078] FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of an automatic rain gauge rainfall intensity;

[0079] 图10为一种插入式土壤水分传感器的示意图; [0079] Figure 10 is a schematic diagram of a plug-in soil moisture sensor;

[0080] 图11为一种全方位倾斜传感器的示意图; [0080] Figure 11 is a schematic view of a full range of the tilt sensor;

[0081] 图12为土体的应力应变关系曲线; [0081] Figure 12 is a stress strain curve of the soil;

[0082] 图13为监控中心计算机中的地质灾害预测预报软件系统框图。 [0082] Figure 13 is a block diagram of forecasting software system monitoring center computer geological disasters.

具体实施方式 DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0083] 下面结合附图对本发明作进一步描述。 [0083] OF THE DRAWINGS The present invention will be further described.

[0084] 参照图1〜图13,一种基于雨量、斜坡土壤含水量和形变量的地质灾害预测系统,包括用于监测地质灾害点的雨量雨强的自动雨量计、用于监测地质灾害点土壤中水分的土壤水分传感器、用于检测地质灾害点的地表和内部形变的全方位倾斜传感器、用于评估地质灾害发生规模的全方位视觉传感器、用于无线传输视频以及各种监测数据的嵌入式系统、用于进行地质灾害预测预报的监控中心计算机、用于对所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计供电的太阳能供电单元;所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计与所述的嵌入式系统连接,所述的嵌入式系统通过无线通信方式与监控中心计算机连接,所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述的土壤水分传感器和所述的自动雨量计安置在地质灾害发生点的山体上不容易发生塌方滑坡的区域,如山体基础比较稳固的区域,如图5所示,为了连线方便三个传感器的安置点尽可能配置在附近,所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器和所述的嵌入式系统配置在同一根立杆上;所述的土壤水分传感器植入所述的立杆附近的土壤中约IOCM深处,选择的土壤需要与斜坡的土壤相一致,以便能真实反映斜坡土壤中的含水量;所述的全方位倾斜传感器按照一定的分布规则配置在容易发生塌方和滑坡部位,以形成一个力传感网,如图7、图8所示;每一个全方位倾斜传感器都具有一个反映埋设地点位置的编码号,一旦某一个编码号的全方位倾斜传感器发生位移形变就能立即知道在山体的哪个空间位置上发生了地表或者内部形变;每一个全方位倾斜传感器之间以及和所述的嵌入式系统之间采用无线通信的方式,这样力传感网就成为了一个传感形变力ZigBee的无线传感网;[0085] 在地质灾害发生区域往往是通信和电力供应困难的区域,因此需要对系统进行省功耗、自供电以及无线通信的设计;由于地质灾害发生都是由于强降雨诱发的,所以在本发明中采用雨量事件触发方式,即只有在下雨时才启动系统进行监测预警预报,平时监测预测预报系统,包括所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统均处于休眠状态,这样能大大降低系统的功耗;当下雨时,通过自动雨量计的触点开关激活所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器以及所述的嵌入式系统,使得他们立即进入工作状态;当下雨结束后的72小时起,如果没有发生地质灾害情况下监测预测预报系统以及所有的监测装置均进入休眠状态,以实现省功耗的设计;所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器和所述的嵌入式系统的供电由所述的太阳能供电单元提供,所述的太阳能供电单元由太阳能光电转换板、充电电池以及充电电路构成,所述的充电电池的容量需满足所述的自动雨量计、所述的全方位视觉传感器、所述土壤水分传感器和所述的嵌入式系统120小时以上的工作时间;所述的嵌入式系统与所述的监控中心计算机之间的信息交换采用3G无线通信模式; [0084] Referring to FIG. 1 ~ 13, a geological disaster forecasting system rainfall, soil moisture and slope deformation based on point of geological disasters, including for monitoring rainfall intensity rainfall automatic rain gauges to monitor geological hazards soil moisture soil moisture sensor, tilt sensor for full-surface geological hazards and internal deformation for a full range of vision sensors to assess the scale of geological disasters, for embedded wireless transmission of video and a variety of monitoring data type system for geological disaster monitoring center computer forecast for the full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and said the automatic rain gauge solar power supply unit; a full range of vision sensors, soil moisture sensors and said the automatic rain gauge connected to the embedded systems, embedded systems connected via a wireless communication with the monitoring center computer, the full range of vision sensors, the soil moisture sensor described and the automatic rain gauge placed on the mountain geological disasters point is not prone to landslide landslide area, such as a solid basis for comparison of the mountain area, shown in Figure 5, in order to facilitate the connection of three sensors settlements as possible in the vicinity of the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensors and embedded systems described in the configuration of a pole on the same; soil moisture sensor, wherein the implant pole about the depths of the soil near IOCM, the soil needs to be consistent with the selected soil slopes in order to truly reflect the slope soil moisture; full-tilt sensor as claimed in accordance with certain rules configuration distribution in landslides and landslide-prone parts, to form a force sensor network, Fig. 7, Fig. 8; each has a full-tilt sensor reflected buried position location code number, once the full range of the inclination sensor of a certain code numbers on the displacement of the strain to know immediately what the spatial location of the mountain on the surface or inside the deformation has occurred; the use of a full-tilt between each sensor and the embedded systems and wireless communication means, so that the force sensor network becomes a deformation force sensing ZigBee wireless sensor network; [0085] in the area of geological disasters is often difficult communication and power supply area, so the need for the provincial power system, self-powered and wireless communication design; geological disasters are induced as a result of heavy rainfall, so the use in the present invention rainfall event trigger that only when the rains start monitoring early warning and forecast system, usually monitoring forecasting system, including the automatic rain gauge, a full directional vision sensor, a soil moisture sensor and embedded systems are described in a dormant state, this can greatly reduce the power consumption of the system; when it rains, the rain gauge contacts by automatically activating the automatic switch rain gauge, omnidirectional vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded systems, making them immediately into working condition; 72 hours after the rain when starting, monitoring and forecasting system for all geological disasters occur if no Monitoring devices are going to sleep, in order to achieve the provincial power design; supply the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and embedded systems described by the solar power supply unit provides solar-powered unit described by solar photovoltaic panels, rechargeable batteries and a charging circuit, rechargeable battery capacity to meet the needs of the automatic rain gauge, all-round vision sensor, wherein the soil moisture sensor and the embedded systems than 120 hours of working time; information embedded system according to the monitoring center and the exchange between computers using 3G wireless communication mode;

[0086]为了用最少的传感器件感知更多的斜坡变形信息,本发明中采用全方位倾斜传感器同时感知斜坡地表和内部变形,具体做法是在塌方等地质灾害可能发生区域的地面上埋设一排立杆,立杆采用水泥钢筋制成,立杆的埋设深度为O. 5米以上,立杆的上端离斜坡面I米左右,立杆之间的间距为3〜5米,如图7所示,各立杆之间用缆索进行连接,缆索材料采用直径为2cm呢绒线材,缆索与缆索之间以编织方式进行连接,缆索之间的孔径面积不大于O. 25平方米,将全方位倾斜传感器安置在各立杆的最中间的一根立杆上,如果各立杆之间的埋设距离超过100米以上,考虑增加监测装置,即对于有多个监测装置的情况,各监测装置之间的距离约为100米;这里要注意的是力传感网对12级以下台风情况下不会引起立杆的摇晃和倾斜;当斜坡的地表以及内部发生形变时对力传感网产生作用力,使得监测装置能监测到立杆的倾斜,这时全方位倾斜传感器工作,通过无线传感网将形变信息传递给嵌入式系统; [0086] In order to use the least sensors perceive more information slope deformation, the present invention uses a full range of tilt sensors simultaneously perceived slope surface and internal deformation, which would be buried in a row on the ground geological disasters such as landslides may occur region pole, the pole is made using reinforced concrete, the pole buried depth O. 5 meters above the upper pole of the left and right from the slope surface I m spacing between the pole for 3 to 5 meters, as 7 shows, among pole with cable connection, cable material with a diameter of between 2cm wire cloth, rope and cable knit way to connect a cable between the aperture area of not more than O. 25 square meters, will round tilt Sensors placed on the middle of each pole of a pole, if the distance between the pole buried among more than 100 meters or more, consider increasing the monitoring device, that is, for the case of multiple monitoring devices, each monitoring device between a distance of about 100 meters; to note here is that the force sensor network for the next 12 following typhoon condition does not cause shaking and tilting pole; when the slope of the surface and internal deformation occurs on the force sensor networks generate force, making the monitoring device can detect the tilted pole, then work full-tilt sensor, wireless sensor network through the deformation information to the embedded systems;

[0087] 由于感知斜坡地表和内部变形需要大量使用全方位倾斜传感器,这些全方位倾斜传感器既要满足能感知斜坡体不同的地表以及内部形变量,同时又要满足倾斜传感器是廉价的、低功耗、免维护等要求;在本发明中采用了多立杆加缆索的方案,通过缆索将各个立杆连接在一起,一旦任何一根缆索上或者任何一根立杆上受到泥石流、塌方发生的外力后,所有立杆就会发生不同程度的倾斜,从而使得安置在立杆上的全方位倾斜传感器感知到立杆的倾斜而触发传输倾斜数据,其原理如附图11所示;所述的全方位倾斜传感器包括上圆锥体、圆锥形导电线圈、绝缘线、下圆锥体、导线、导电空心管、外壳、无线射频发生单元、电源和水银所构成;圆锥型导电线圈的大小与上圆锥体内部的大小相同,圆锥形导电线圈中由四个不同大小半径的线圈以同一圆心垂直叠放构成一个圆锥体,即用线圈A、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D叠加成一个圆锥形,各线圈之间的距离为△,且构成圆锥形导电线圈的每个线圈之间是不导通的,每个线圈都有一个引出线通向上圆锥体的外部,圆锥型导电线圈嵌入在上圆锥体内,嵌入后的圆锥型导电线圈的边缘离上圆锥体的底部的距离为△,分别用4芯绝缘线分别焊接在线圈A、线圈B、线圈C和线圈D的引出线上,下圆锥体的圆锥尖处插入导电空心管,导电空心管的一段进入下圆锥体的内部,绝缘线穿过导电空心管的内部将绝缘线引到下圆锥体的外部,填入粘结剂使得导电空心管和下圆锥体固定和密封,绝缘线与下圆锥体的内部和导电空心管保持绝缘状态,在下圆锥体中添加水银,水银的容量正好填满下圆锥体,然后将上圆锥体和下圆锥体固定在一起形成密闭的空间,最后用外壳将整个全方位倾斜传感器固定在一起;上圆锥体和下圆锥体采用透明塑料压制而成,与导电空心管连接的导线A和与绝缘线连接的四芯导线B分别引线到外壳上,在全方位倾斜传感器没有感知到倾斜时,导线A和四芯导线B中的任何一芯导线都是不相通的;当全方位倾斜传感器感知到有倾斜时,在下圆锥体内部的水银有一部分流入到上圆锥体内,并与嵌入在圆锥体内的圆锥形导电线圈中的线圈相接触,倾斜角度为O. 5时与线圈A相接触,倾斜角度为1时与线圈A和线圈B相接触,倾斜角度为1.5时与线圈A、线圈B和线圈C相接触,倾斜角度为2时与所有的线圈相接触,因此只要任何一个方位出现某一程度的倾斜都会使得导线A和导线B中的某一芯或者多芯导线相通;判断倾斜角度的方法是:若导线A与D线圈之间相通就可以判断这时倾斜的角度在2或者2以上;若导线A与D线圈之间不相通,导线A与线圈C之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在1. 5到2之间;若导线A与D线圈和C线圈之间都不相通,导线A与线圈B之间相通则判断这时倾斜的角度在1到1. 5之间;若导线A只与线圈A之间导通则判断这时倾斜的角度在O. 5到1之间;若导线A与任何线圈都不导通则判断倾斜的角度在O. 5以下;本发明中将这5根线作为所述的无线射频发生单元9的数据采集端的输入; [0087] Due to the slope surface and internal deformation perceived need extensive use of full-tilt sensor, which is necessary to meet a full range of tilt sensor can perceive the different slopes body surface and internal deformation, but also to meet the tilt sensor is inexpensive, low-power consumption, maintenance and other requirements; in the present invention uses a multi-pole plus cable programs by cable to each pole are connected together by mudslides once on any one or any one pole on the cable, external landslides occurred After all the pole will be inclined in varying degrees, so that the pole placement in the full range of tilt sensor senses the inclination of the pole is inclined to trigger transmission of data, the principle as shown in Fig. 11; the full azimuth tilt sensor includes a cone, cone conductive coil, insulated wire, under the cone, wires, conductive hollow tube, shell, radio frequency generating unit, power supply and mercury posed; the size of the cone-type conductive coil and the cone inside of the same size, a conical conductive coil by coil four different sizes of the same circle radii are stacked vertically to form a cone, i.e., coil A, coil B, and coil C D superimposed into a conical coil, the coils of the is the distance between the △, and between each of the coils constituting the conical conductive coil is non-conductive, each coil has a lead line leading to an external, tapered cone conductive coil is embedded in the cone body, embedding the rear edge of the conical conductive coil from the bottom of the cone distance △, 4-core insulated wire were used, respectively, welded to the lead wire coil A, coil B, coil C and D of the coil, at the cone tip of the cone conductive hollow tube inserted at the conductive section of the hollow tube into the interior of the next cone, insulated wire through the hollow tube of the inner conductor insulated wire lead external to the cone, so that the conductive binder filled hollow tube and a lower conical conductive hollow interior and secured and sealed, insulated wire and lower cone body tube holding an insulated state, the lower cone added mercury, mercury capacity just fill the lower cone, then the upper cone and the lower cone together closed space is formed, and finally the entire full-tilt sensor housing are secured together; upper cone and the lower cone pressed transparent plastic, wire A hollow tube is connected to the conductive core wire and four-wire connections and the insulating B respectively, lead to the housing, in the full tilt sensor is not perceived tilt, four-conductor wire A and B in any one of the core wire is not connected; when full-tilt to tilt sensor senses when the next cone Internal mercury flows into the conical part of the body, and in contact with the conical body embedded in the conical conductive coil in a coil, when the inclination angle is O. 5 while in contact with the coil A, the inclination angle of 1 and the coil A and B in contact with the coil, the inclination angle of 1.5 while in contact with the coil A, coil B, and coil C, 2 tilt angle when in contact with all of the coils, so long as any one orientation will appear a certain degree of inclination makes wire and wire A B in a core or multi-core wire connected; determine the tilt angle is: if you can determine interlinked then tilt angle in 2 or 2 above the wire between A and D coil; if between A and D coil wire is not connected between A wire connected to the coil C is determined that this time the angle of inclination between 1. 5 to 2 ; if not connected between A and D coil wire coil and C , it is judged that communication between the coil wires A and B in this case the angle of inclination between 1 to 1. 5 ; only if A and the guide wire between the coil A General determination in this case the angle of inclination O. 5 data acquisition input terminal of the present invention, these five lines as said radio frequency generating unit 9; between 1 ; if the coil wires A and not in any guide General determines the angle of inclination in O. 5 or less ;

[0088] 所述的无线射频发生单元主要包括MCU和无线收发芯片,MCU与无线收发芯片通过SPI总线连接,二者构成无线传输模块,将检测到的倾斜角度数据传输给所述的嵌入式系统,通信方式为ZigBee技术;ZigBee技术是一种近距离、低复杂度、低功耗、低数据速率、低成本的双向无线通信技术,主要适合于自动控制和远程控制领域,可以嵌入到各种设备中,同时支持地理定位功能,尤其适用于本发明中使用量大、布置范围广、功耗要求低、传输数据少以及传输距离近的地质灾害点地表和内部变形的监测需要; [0088] The radio frequency generating unit and includes a wireless transceiver chip MCU, MCU and wireless transceiver chip is connected via the SPI bus, which constitute the wireless transmission module, the embedded system of the detected inclination angle to said data transmission communication mode for ZigBee technology; ZigBee technology is a short distance, low complexity, low power, low data rate, low-cost two-way wireless communication technology, mainly suitable for automatic control and remote control fields can be embedded into a variety of equipment, while supporting geolocation feature, especially for use in the invention large, wide range of layout, power requirements low, less data transfer and transmission distance near surface geological hazards and the need for internal deformation monitoring;

[0089] 所述的MCU是STC89LE516AD单片机,为51内核增强型8位单片机,与IntelMCS51系列单片机完全兼容。 Described MCU [0089] is STC89LE516AD microcontroller, for 51 core enhanced 8-bit microcontroller, is fully compatible with IntelMCS51 family of microcontrollers. STC89LE516AD有丰富的片上存储功能,具有64KBFlash和512字节RAM。 STC89LE516AD has a wealth of on-chip memory function, with 64KBFlash and 512 bytes of RAM. 单片机自身固化有ISP程序,通过串口下载程序;所述的导线A和所述的线圈A、B、C、D均接入到STC89LE516AD单片机的并行口,用所述的导线A和所述的线圈A之间的导通作为外部中断源,只有在所述的导线A和所述的线圈A之间的导通情况下唤醒所述的无线射频发生单元,没有倾斜发生时所述的无线射频发生单元处于休眠模式状态; SCM has solidified itself ISP program, download the program via the serial port; the wires of the coils A and A, B, C, D have access to STC89LE516AD microcontroller parallel port, with the A and the wire coil A conduction between the source as an external interrupt, only a wake-up radio frequency generating unit, wherein in the conductive case and the conductor A between the coils A, no tilting of the radio frequency occurs unit is in Sleep Mode;

[0090] 所述的无线收发芯片采用CC2500,它是一款低成本、低功耗、高性能的无线收发芯片,其工作频段为2. 4GHz的ISM频段;具有良好的无线接收灵敏度和强大的抗干扰能力;在休眠模式时仅O. 9 μ A的流耗,外部中断或RTC能唤醒系统;在待机模式时少于O. 6 μ A的流耗,外部中断能唤醒系统;硬件支持CSMA/CA功能;电压为1. 8〜3. 6V ;在传输模式下,当输出功率为-12dBm时,电流消耗为12mA。 [0090] The wireless transceiver chip CC2500, it is a low cost, low power, high-performance wireless transceiver chip, and its operating band for 2. 4GHz ISM band; has good sensitivity and powerful wireless receiver anti-jamming capability; in sleep mode current consumption is only O. 9 μ A, the external interrupt or RTC can wake up the system; in standby mode current consumption is less than O. 6 μ A, the external interrupt can wake up the system; hardware support CSMA / CA function; voltage 1. 8~3 6V;. In transport mode, when the output power of -12dBm, the current consumption of 12mA. CC2500的接收器敏感度为_101dBm(在IOkbps时);最大输出功率为OdBm,数据速率可在1. 2kbps〜500kbps之间变化;带有2个强大的支持几组协议的USART,以及I个MAC计时器、I个常规的16位计时器和2个8位计时器; CC2500 receiver sensitivity for _101dBm (in IOkbps time); maximum output power of OdBm, the data rate can vary between 1. 2kbps~500kbps; USART with two powerful groups support the agreement, and I a MAC timer, I a conventional 16-bit timer and two 8 timer;

[0091] 在全方位倾斜传感器的单片机的软件中主要包括了初始化程序、检测程序和发射程序,初始化程序主要是对单片机、射频芯片、SPI等进行处理;检测程序主要检测和判定倾斜角,并将检测到的倾斜角数据与检测时间和反映埋设地点位置的编码号等信息进行打包;发射程序将建立的数据包通过单片机SPI接口送至射频发生模块输出;所述的嵌入式系统接收从所述的全方位倾斜传感器中射频发生模块发送过来的监测数据,并将这些数据通过3G无线通信网络或者计算机通信网络传输给所述的监控中心计算机;因此,从网络的概念来说,若干个全方位倾斜传感器与嵌入式系统构成了无线局域网,嵌入式系统与监控中心计算机构成了无线广域网; [0091] In the full-tilt sensor microcontroller software includes the initialization procedures, tests and launch the program, the initialization procedure is the main microcontroller, RF chip, SPI and other processing; testing procedures to detect and determine the tilt angle of the main and The tilt angle data detected by the detection time and place of the location and reflect embedded coding, and other information packaged; microcontroller SPI interface to the RF generator module output emission program to be established by the packet; the embedded system receives from the referred to full-tilt module monitoring data sent from the RF sensor occur, and these data to the monitoring center computer via 3G wireless network or computer communications network; therefore, the concept network, the number of full azimuth tilt sensor and embedded wireless LAN system constitutes, embedded systems and control center computers form a wireless wide area network;

[0092] 所述的自动雨量计采用中国发明专利申请号为200610154671. 9的基于计算机视觉的智能雨量检测设备,通过该设备能获得每天和每小时雨量雨强的数据,并将这些数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机;一般来说,在2平方公里的区域内配置一个自动雨量计已经基本上满足地质灾害监测的需要,从经济角度考虑,在一个地质灾害点采用一个自动雨量计; [0092] The automatic rain gauge by the Chinese Patent Application No. rainfall intelligent computer vision based detection device, the device can be obtained through a daily and hourly rainfall intensity rainfall data 200,610,154,671.9 of, and these data in real time transmitted to the monitoring center computer; and in general, in the area of two square kilometers configure an automatic rain gauge has been basically meet the needs of geological disaster monitoring, from an economic point of view, in a geological hazards using an automatic rain gauge ;

[0093] 所述的土壤水分传感器采用电容式土壤水分传感器,本发明中采用一种指针式土壤水分传感器,将所述的土壤水分传感器垂直插入到松质土壤、松散堆积物的IOCM深处;平时处于休眠状态,只有在下雨时才触发工作,通过该传感器能获得土壤中的含水量数据,并将这些数据实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机;一般来说,在2平方公里的区域内配置一个指针式土壤水分传感器已经基本上满足地质灾害监测的需要,从经济角度考虑,在一个地质灾害点采用一个指针式土壤水分传感器; [0093] The soil moisture sensor uses capacitive soil moisture sensor, the present invention uses a pointer soil moisture sensors, soil moisture sensor vertically inserted into the spongy soil, deep IOCM loose deposits of; usually dormant, only to work in the rain when it is triggered by the sensor to get the soil moisture data, and real-time transmission of data to the monitoring center computer; and in general, in the area of two square kilometers Configuring a pointer within the soil moisture sensor has been basically meet the needs of geological disaster monitoring, from an economic point of view, in a geological disaster point soil moisture sensor uses a pointer;

[0094] 所述的全方位视觉传感器采用中国发明专利申请号为200610154827. 3的基于全方位视觉的泥石流灾害检测装置中的技术,通过该装置能获得地质灾害发生时的现场全景图像,可客观地评估地质灾害发生的规模以及所造成的危害,全方位视觉传感器所采集的现场全景视频数据通过所述的嵌入式系统实时地传输给所述的监控中心计算机;一般来说,在2平方公里的区域内配置一个全方位视觉传感器已经基本上满足地质灾害监测的需要,从经济角度考虑,在一个地质灾害点的山坡上配置一个全方位视觉传感器; [0094] The use of the full range of vision sensors Chinese invention patent application number detection device based on debris flows in a full range of visual technology, the device can be obtained through the scene panoramic images of geological disasters occurred, objectively 200,610,154,827.3 of panoramic video data to assess the scale of the field of geological disasters and hazards caused by the acquisition of a full range of vision sensors transmitted through the real-time embedded systems to the monitoring center computer; In general, the two square kilometers Configuring an area within the full range of vision sensors have basically meet the needs of geological disaster monitoring, from an economic point of view, an omnidirectional vision sensor configuration on the hillside of a geological disaster point;

[0095] 所述的嵌入式系统,通过ZigBee的无线传感网读取所述的全方位倾斜传感器的倾斜角度和所述的全方位倾斜传感器的编码等数据;通过Α/D接口读取所述的土壤水分传感器的土壤水分监测值;通过所述的全方位视觉传感器所获得的图像数据分析得到所述的自动雨量计的雨量雨强监测值;通过所述的全方位视觉传感器获得地质灾害发生点现场的全景图像;所述的嵌入式系统与所述的监控中心计算机之间采用3G无线通信传输监测数据; [0095] The embedded system, reading the full range of tilt sensors via ZigBee wireless sensor networks encoding the tilt angle and the full range of tilt sensors and other data; by Α / D interface reads Soil moisture monitoring soil moisture sensor values described; through the full range of image data obtained by analyzing the visual sensor to obtain the automatic rain gauges to monitor rainfall intensity value; get through the full range of geological disasters vision sensor The embedded system using 3G wireless communication transmission of monitoring data between the computer and the monitoring center; the panoramic image scene occurred;

[0096] 所述的监控中心计算机中的软件包括:通信模块、数据接收模块、基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块、基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块、基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块、基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块、决策辅助模块、信息发布模块; Monitoring Centre [0096] The computer software includes: a communication module, the data receiver module, based on rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module based on slope displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module based on soil moisture and rainfall rain Strong geological disaster prediction module based on geological hazards and slope deformation of soil moisture prediction module, decision support module, information dissemination module;

[0097] 所述的通信模块,用于与所述的嵌入式系统进行基于3G无线通信协议的无线通信以及各种计算机网络通信,接收和传输各种控制数据和监测数据; Communication module [0097] according to, and embedded systems for wireless communication and said various computer-based 3G wireless communication network communication protocol, receiving and transmitting various control data and monitoring data;

[0098] 所述的数据接收模块,用于接收从所述的嵌入式系统传送过来的各种监测数据,所述的监测数据包括雨量雨强数据、土壤水分数据、现场全景视频数据以及带有地理位置信息的斜坡形变数据;同时将这些数据以采集地点、即地质灾害点的地理位置数据为主键存放在多媒体数据库中;地质灾害点的地理位置数据以该地质灾害点的GPS定位数据进行命名;植入斜坡中的全方位倾斜传感器的地理位置数据以埋设点的GPS定位数据进行命名;[0099] 所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,主要依据斜坡变形量的数据和雨量雨强数据进行预测,图1显示了地质灾害发生的各种内外因关系,由于降雨是诱发滑坡的最主要的外部因素,需要关注不同雨量级别情况下的斜坡形变,采取不同的处置措施,在该模块中采用了雨量雨强和斜坡形变两种监测数据,如表I所示;虽然这种预测方法具有明显的因果关联性,但是需要用斜坡形变量进行确认,因此在该时刻进行预警预报给当地居民避难的时间非常短,如图4所示,采用该模块进行有效准确预测的前提是弄清了该地质灾害点暴发泥石流的临界降雨量,这样可以将预警预报的时间提前,为避灾提供充足的时间;基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测实质上是用到了地质灾害发生因果链上的①、⑧节点的监测; Data receiving module [0098], wherein said means for receiving from embedded systems transmit data over a variety of monitoring, monitoring data comprises data rainfall intensity rainfall, soil moisture data, field data, and with a panoramic video slope deformation data location information; at the same time in order to collect location data, location data that is the main point of geological disasters multimedia keys stored in the database; geographic data of geological disasters point to GPS location data in the geological hazards are named ; slope of the round implant tilt sensor location data to GPS location data embedded in points named; [0099] based on the rain intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module, based primarily on the amount of slope deformation data and rainfall rain Strong data to predict Figure 1 shows the relationship between the various internal and external causes of geological disasters, due to rain-induced landslides are the most important external factors, need to focus on different rainfall levels slope deformation case, take different measures to deal with the module uses a rainfall intensity of rainfall and slope deformation monitoring data of two, as shown in Table I; although this prediction method has obvious causal association, but need to confirm with the ramp-shaped variable, so the time to conduct warning and forecast Local resident evacuation time is very short, as shown in Figure 4, using the module effectively and accurately predict the premise is to understand the geological hazards outbreak mudslides critical rainfall, so the time can be advance warning and forecast for disaster prevention provide sufficient time; based on rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction is essentially used for monitoring of geological disasters ①, ⑧ node in the chain of causation;

[0100] 表I降雨期间不同雨强情况下预警预防措施对应表 Early warning under different rainfall intensities correspond precautions during the [0100] Table I rainfall

[0101] [0101]

Figure CN102013150BD00191

[0102] 所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块,是利用材料力学中的受力与形变的关系进行预测的,材料受力与形变的关系是:随着材料的受力增大受力材料从弹性变形、塑性变形到破坏的过程;一般来说,在弹性变形期间,根据胡克定理,材料的变形速率几乎是一个常数;在塑性变形期间,材料的变形速率逐渐增大,并会出现一个变形加速拐点,如图4的t3点;因此根据斜坡变形曲线各阶段的斜率变化特点,可以采用数学方法进行定量判断。 [0102] based on the slope of the displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module is the use of the relationship between the material mechanics force and deformation prediction, the relationship between stress and deformation of the material is: With the increase in the force of materials greatly force material from the elastic deformation, plastic deformation to failure process; Generally, during elastic deformation, according to Hooke's theorem, the deformation rate of the material is almost a constant; during the plastic deformation, the deformation rate of the material increases and there will be a turning point deformation accelerated, as t3 point 4; therefore, according to the slope of the curve changes slope deformation characteristics of each stage, you can use mathematical methods for quantitative judgment. 斜坡变形曲线的斜率可以利用切线角Cii来表达,如公式(I)所示。 The slope of the slope deformation curve tangent angle Cii can be expressed as shown in equation (I) below.

Figure CN102013150BD00192

[0104] 公式(I)中,i(i = 1,2,3,...,η)为时间序数:ai为累积位移T⑴的切线角,ΓΙΟ = AS(i)为某一单位时间段(一般采用一个监测周期,如I天、I周等)内斜坡 [0104] Formula (I) wherein, i (i = 1,2,3, ..., η) is the time sequence number: ai for the cumulative displacement T⑴ tangent angle, ΓΙΟ = AS (i) for a unit period (generally use a monitoring period, as I day, I week, etc.) within the ramp

位移变化量为等速变形阶段的位移速率;T(i)为变换后与时间相同量纲的纵坐标值Ai为某一监测时刻。 The rate of change of displacement amount of displacement constant deformation stage; T (i) for the same time transformed dimensionless ordinates Ai for a monitoring time.

[0105] 根据式(I)计算结果并按下述条件进行判定, [0105] According to formula (I) according to the following conditions, the calculation result is determined,

[0106] 当ai < 45时斜坡处于初始变形阶段; [0106] When ai <45 when the ramp is in the initial stages of deformation;

[0107] 当ai ^ 45时斜坡处于等速变形阶段; [0107] When the ai ^ 45 ramp at constant deformation stage;

[0108] 45 < Cii <80时为初加速阶段,发出蓝色预警; [0108] 45 <Cii <80 is the initial acceleration phase when issued blue warning;

[0109] 80彡Cii <85时为中加速阶段,发出橙色预警; [0109] 80 San Cii <85 when the acceleration phase, issued an orange alert;

[0110] ai彡85时为临滑阶段,发出红色预警; [0110] ai San temporary slip for 85 phase, issued a red alert;

[0111] 发生塌方和泥石流时的切线角Cii 一般约为89。 [0111] tangent angle landslides and mudslides when Cii is generally about 89 . [0112] 这种预测方法由于只是用了斜坡变形的信息,要求能准确实时地监测斜坡变形量以及变形的过程,另外,斜坡的变形量的信号比较小、很容易引入干扰,可以作为预测的一种辅助手段;基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测实质上是利用了地质灾害发生因果链上的⑤、⑥、⑧节点的监测; [0112] This prediction method since only the deformation of the slope information, require accurate real-time monitoring of the amount of deformation and deformation of the slope process, additionally, the amount of deformation of the ramp signal is relatively small, it is easy to introduce interference, as predicted An adjunct; based on slope displacement - geological disaster prediction is essentially the use of geological disasters monitoring ⑤ causal chain, ⑥, ⑧ node time curve;

[0113] 所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块,其主要依据是地质灾害的发生主要受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度,如图2所示;其中土壤中的含水量即影响着滑坡体的自重力又影响着滑坡体的抗剪强度,当土壤中的水分达到11. 5%时,滑坡体的自重力会增加11. 5%同时剪切力迅速减小;显然利用土壤中的含水量与变形量进行预测预报会显著地提高预测预报的精度;如果当土壤中的含水量达到11. 5%以及变形处在初加速阶段的话,那么该地质灾害点发生地质灾害的概率就非常高,这时就可以作为预警预报信息发布点;如果还在下雨或者预报近期会有较大的雨量雨强的话,就应该马上启动紧急预案,迅速疏散可能危及的人群;依据土壤中的含水量和变形量进行预测预报的方法如图6所示的曲线,其中Kl是较少土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线,如Kl为土壤中的水分达到1. 5% ;K5是较多土壤含水量的雨强-形变地质灾害预测曲线,如Κ5为土壤中的水分达到11. 5%;纵坐标表示雨量雨强值预报值、横坐标表示滑坡体的变形量;基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测实质上是利用了地质灾害因果链上的①、②、③、④、⑤、⑥、⑧节点的监测; [0113] Based on the soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module based primarily on geological disasters mainly controlled by self-gravity and the shear strength of the landslide, shown in Figure 2; where the soil The moisture that affect the self-gravity of the landslide also affect the shear strength of the landslide, when the soil moisture reached 11.5%, since the gravitational landslide will increase 11.5% while the shear force rapidly decreases; forecast can significantly improve the accuracy of prediction is clearly the use of soil moisture and deformation amount; if and when the soil moisture content of 11.5% and a distortion in the early acceleration phase, then the geological disasters the probability of geological disasters point is very high, then you can as early warning and forecast information release point; if still raining or rain forecast for the near future there will be a greater rainfall intensity, then you should immediately start emergency plans, rapid evacuation is likely to endanger the population; according to the soil moisture content and the amount of deformation prediction methods were shown in the graph in Figure 6, where Kl is less soil moisture of rain intensity - deformation curves of geological disaster prediction, such as soil moisture Kl reach 1. 5%; K5 soil moisture is more rain and strong - deformation of geological disaster prediction curve, such as soil moisture Κ5 reached 11.5%; vertical axis represents the value of rainfall forecast rainfall intensity value, the horizontal axis represents the landslide deformation; based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction is essentially the use of geological disaster monitoring ① causal chain, ②, ③, ④, ⑤, ⑥, ⑧ nodes;

[0114] 从图6的曲线可以知道,对于同样的变形量,最上面的曲线Kl表明,较大的雨量雨强阈值才会引发地质灾害发生,而最下面的曲线Κ5则表明较小的雨量雨强阈值就会引发地质灾害发生;很多地质灾害发生能很好的解释上述的预测曲线正确性,如融雪后的一场小雨以及在前几天下过大雨后的一场小雨引发的地质灾害;在该预测模型中,及时地将诱发地质灾害发生的外因-雨强的监测转换成对直接影响滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度的土壤含水量的内因监测土,由于地质灾害的发生主要受控于滑坡体的自重力和抗剪强度,把握这个主要关键核心问题能有效地提高预测精度;预测预报的算法如下:首先根据监测到的变形量δ η在图6中做一条垂直线,可得到与5条曲线相交的5个点,然后根据检测到的土壤的含水量找到与该含水量最接近的2个点,Α2和A3 ;按照线性插值的方式得到在垂直线上的I个点,An ;该An的纵坐标值就是临界雨强预测阈值Υη,根据气象预报的雨量雨强值进行不同的应急措施;由于滑坡体的变形量Sn以及土壤中的含水量An是在不断变化的,预测预报的算法是不断的循环计算的;判断方式是预报雨强值Yf与目前临界雨强预测阈值Yn进行比较,当50% Yn ^ Yf < 75% Yn时发出蓝色预警,当75% Yn ^ Yf < 100%Yn时发出橙色预警,当Yn < Yf时发出红色预警; [0114] From the graph in Figure 6 can know, for the same amount of deformation curve Kl top show larger rain intensity rainfall threshold will lead to geological disasters, while the bottom of the curve indicates that the smaller rainfall Κ5 rain intensity threshold will trigger geological disasters; geological disasters many geological disasters can explain the correctness of the above prediction curve, such as rain and snow after a light rain over the next few days after heavy rain triggered ; in the prediction model in a timely manner will induce external geological disasters - rain and strong monitoring translate into a direct impact on internal monitoring of soil water content of the soil shear strength and self-gravity landslide, due to the occurrence of major geological disasters controlled by the self-gravity and shear strength of the landslide, grasp the main key core issues can effectively improve the prediction accuracy; prediction algorithm is as follows: First, δ η in Figure 6 to make a vertical line according to the amount of deformation monitoring, obtained with five 5-point curves intersect, and then find the moisture content of the nearest two points, Α2 and A3 based on the detected soil moisture; manner in accordance with linear interpolation in a vertical line I point, An; ordinate is the critical value of the An predict rainfall intensity threshold Υη, emergency measures under different rainfall intensity rainfall value meteorological forecasts; due to deformation of the Sn and soil moisture An landslide is constantly changing The algorithm forecast is constantly circulating calculations; way to judge the value Yf forecast rainfall intensity and rainfall intensity predicted current critical threshold Yn comparison, when 50% Yn ^ Yf <issued at 75% Yn blue warning, when 75 % Yn ^ Yf issue when <100% Yn orange alert, red alert, when Yn <Yf;

[0115] 所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块,土的应力-应变关系的描述是研究土体各种力学性质的核心问题,如图12所示,土壤含水量是与土的应力直接相关的一个物理量,斜坡变形量又是与土的应变直接相关的量,在本模块中主要采用土体的应力应变的数学模型对地质灾害进行预测;在该预测模块中利用土壤含水量、土壤含水量的变化率、斜坡变形量和斜坡变形量的变化率等信息;土壤含水量的变化率的快速增加必定会增加发生地质灾害的可能性,同样斜坡变形量的变化率的加速也是地质灾害发生的前兆,从力学的观点来说,发生地质灾害必定经历了土体的弹性变形、塑性变形和破坏等阶段,要早期能精准的作出预测,就需要精准的把握土体的塑性变形的初期状态,因此该预测模块是一种利用静态预测和动态预测相结合的预测方法,所谓的静态预测主要通过应力应变的关系曲线进行分析预测,所谓的动态预测则主要通过应力应变的变化率来预测其发展变化趋势;因此,首先要根据记录在多媒体数据库中的该地质灾害点的土壤含水量、斜坡变形量以及当前监测到的该地质灾害点的土壤含水量、斜坡变形量计算土壤含水量的变化率、斜坡变形量的变化率,然后结合当前监测到的该地质灾害点的土壤含水量、斜坡变形量进行综合判断;对于每一个地质点都可以得到土壤含水量和斜坡变形量的关系曲线,土壤含水量增加会引起滑坡体的自重增加,滑坡体的下滑力大小用斜坡角度的正弦值与滑坡体自重的乘积进行计算,斜坡位移变化量和土壤含水量的变化量用公式(2)、(3)进行计算; Based on the amount of soil moisture and slope deformation geological disaster prediction module, the stress of soil [0115] said - strain relations describe the core problem is the study of a variety of mechanical properties of the soil, as shown in Figure 12 is a soil moisture a physical and stress directly related to soil, slope deformation amount is the amount of strain is directly related to the soil, in this module mainly uses mathematical models of stress and strain of soil geological disaster prediction; use in the prediction module soil moisture, soil water content of the rate of change, the rate of change in the amount of slope deformation and slope deformation and other information; a rapid increase in the rate of change of soil moisture will certainly increase the likelihood of the occurrence of geological disasters, the same rate of change of slope deformation Acceleration is also a precursor of geological disasters, from mechanics standpoint, geological disasters must undergo elastic deformation, plastic deformation and destruction of the soil phases, to be made early to precisely predict, we need accurate grasp of the soil plastic deformation of the initial state, so the prediction module is a use static prediction and dynamic prediction method to predict the combination of the so-called static prediction mainly through the stress-strain curve analysis and forecasting, the so-called dynamic prediction mainly through the stress and strain The rate of change to predict its development trends; therefore, the first based on soil moisture soil moisture recorded in the multimedia database of the geological hazards, and the current amount of slope deformation monitoring to the point of geological disasters, the amount of slope deformation calculating the rate of change of soil moisture, slope deformation rate of change, and then combined with soil moisture monitoring to the current point of geological disasters, slope deformation of comprehensive judgments; for each point can be obtained geological soil moisture and slope deformation curve, increase soil moisture can cause weight increase landslide, landslide decline in the size of the force with the sine of the angle of the slope and landslide calculate the weight of the product, the amount of change in the amount of displacement changes the slope and soil water content using equation (2), (3) is calculated;

[0116] Δ δ (i) = ( δ (i) - δ (i~l)) / Δ t (2) [0116] Δ δ (i) = (δ (i) - δ (i ~ l)) / Δ t (2)

[0117] ΔΗ(ΐ) = (H(i)-H(1-1))/At (3) [0117] ΔΗ (ΐ) = (H (i) -H (1-1)) / At (3)

[0118] Δ δ (i)为某一单位时间段内斜坡位移变化量,δ (i)为现监测时刻的斜坡位移量,δ (1-1)为上一个监测时刻的斜坡位移量,AH(i)为某一单位时间段内土壤含水量的变化量,H(i)为现监测时刻的土壤含水量,H(1-l)为上一个监测时刻的土壤含水量,At为两次检测时刻的间隔时间,比如10分钟、I个小时和I天;本发明中用Λ δ 10fflin(i)表示某一时间段的10分钟的斜坡位移变化量,△ δ lh(i)表不某一时间段的I小时的斜坡位移变化量,Δ δ ldaJi)表示某一时间段的I天的斜坡位移变化量,AH10fflin(i)为某一时间段的10分钟土壤含水量的变化量,AHlh(i)为某一时间段的I小时土壤含水量的变化量,Δ Hlday (i)为某一时间段的I天土壤含水量的变化量; [0118] Δ δ (i) for a unit change amount of displacement ramp period, δ (i) for the displacement of the ramp current monitoring time, δ (1-1) for the displacement of the ramp on a monitoring time, AH (i) the amount of change for a unit period of soil moisture, H (i) is the present moment of soil moisture monitoring, H (1-l) to monitor soil moisture on a moment, At for two detection time interval, such as 10 minutes, I hour and I day; used in the present invention is Λ δ 10fflin (i) represents the amount of displacement change in the slope of a 10-minute time period, △ δ lh (i) table is not a I slope displacement variation of one hour time period, Δ δ ldaJi) represents the amount of change in slope displacement certain period of time I days, AH10fflin (i) 10 分钟 variation of soil moisture for a certain time period, AHlh (i) the amount of change for I hour of soil moisture certain period of time, Δ Hlday (i) the amount of change for I-day soil moisture content of a certain time period;

[0119] 滑坡体的应力是由滑坡体的自重与坡度值的正弦的乘积和滑坡体的含水总量与坡度值的正弦的乘积两部分叠加而成,前者是由当地地质地貌环境所决定的,是相对不变的;后者是由当地地质地貌环境和水文气象条件共同决定的,主要是由滑坡体中土壤的含水量的变化而变化的;滑坡体的应力和应力变化率的计算方法用公式(4)表示; [0119] stress the landslide is the product of the total water content by landslide landslide and slope values of self-respect and a superposition of sine and sine of the slope value of the product of two parts, the former by the local geology and geomorphology of the decision environment is relatively constant; the latter is determined jointly by the local geological and geomorphological environment and hydrometeorological conditions, mainly by the change in soil water content landslide varies; calculated rate of change of stress and stress landslide using equation (4) represents;

[0120] σ (i) = wXsina X (1+H(i))/D (4) [0120] σ (i) = wXsina X (1 + H (i)) / D (4)

[0121] Δ σ (i) = wX sin a X Δ H(i) /D [0121] Δ σ (i) = wX sin a X Δ H (i) / D

[0122] 式中,σ (i)为滑坡体的应变力,wXsina/D为由滑坡体不含水分自重产生的应变力,w为滑坡体不含水分的自重,a为滑坡体所在的斜坡的角度,D为滑坡体垂直于应力方向上的最小截面积,wXsina XH(i)/D为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力,δ σ α)为由滑坡体仅仅含水分部分所产生的应变力的变化量; [0122] where, σ (i) for landslide resilience, wXsina / D by the resilience of the landslide generated without water weight, w is moisture-free weight landslide, a ramp where the landslide angle, D for landslide stress direction perpendicular to the smallest cross-sectional area, wXsina XH (i) / D by landslide containing only part of the resilience of the water produced, δ σ α) ground water containing only part of the landslide the amount of change in the force generated by the strain;

[0123] 用公式(5)来表示土体应力与应变的关系; [0123] using equation (5) shows the relationship between stress and strain of the soil;

[0124] Kl (i) = Δ σ (i) / Δ δ ⑴=wX sin a X Δ H(i) X Δ δ ⑴=kX Δ H(i) / Δ δ (i) [0124] Kl (i) = Δ σ (i) / Δ δ ⑴ = wX sin a X Δ H (i) X Δ δ ⑴ = kX Δ H (i) / Δ δ (i)

(5) (5)

[0125] 式中,k接近一个常数,用公式(6)表示, [0125] wherein, k is a constant close to, is represented by the formula (6),

[0126] k = wX sin a /n (6) [0126] k = wX sin a / n (6)

[0127] 为了便于计算,我们将公式(5)改写成公式(J)的形式; [0127] For ease of calculation, we will Equation (5) can be rewritten into formula (J) of the form;

[0128] K(i) =Kl(i)/k= ΔΗ(ΐ)/Δ δ (i) (7) [0128] K (i) = Kl (i) / k = ΔΗ (ΐ) / Δ δ (i) (7)

[0129] 根据需要斜坡位移变化量Λ δ (i)和土壤含水量的变化量AH(i)的计算值可以选择10分钟、I个小时和I天为时间采样间隔,对于10分钟Λ δ1Μη⑴和Λ Hltlmin⑴,为了避免监测数据内的干扰信号,考虑采用一阶数字低通滤波的方式来消除内部扰动和外部扰动干扰;[0130] 根据胡克定理当固体材料受力后材料中的应力与应变之间成线性关系,如图12中变形量为δ I以下区间的情况,基本上是一个较大正值常量,从公式(7)的等式可以知道K(i)值的大小主要取决于土壤中的含水量和斜坡位移量的变化值; [0129] According to the amount of change required slope displacement Λ δ (i) changes in soil moisture and the amount of AH (i) the calculation of the value of the option 10 minutes, I hour and I-day sampling interval of time, and for 10 minutes Λ δ1Μη⑴ Λ Hltlmin⑴, in order to avoid interference signal monitoring data within consider using a first-order digital low-pass filtering way to eliminate the interference of internal disturbance and external disturbances; [0130] According to Hooke's theorem when the solid material in force after the material stress and strain between a linear relationship between the amount of deformation is 12 or less range δ I situation as essentially a large positive constant, from equation (7) equation can know the size of K (i) value depends primarily on soil moisture and slope change in the amount of displacement values;

[0131] 随着受力的增加材料呈现塑性变化,如图12中变形量为δ I〜δ 5区间的情况,K(i)值明显出现减小趋势,有时会出现接近于零或者负值的情况,这就是土体发生塑性变形的主要特征,因此可以利用该特征进行地质灾害的预测; [0131] With the increase of the force of the material exhibits plasticity changes, as shown in Figure 12, the amount of deformation δ I~δ 5 interval case, K (i) values of a marked decrease trend, sometimes close to zero or negative values The case, which is the main feature of soil plastic deformation occurs, so you can use this feature to predict geological hazards;

[0132] 如图12所示,当变形量达到δ 5以上情况时,材料发生破坏,这时就出现了最初的地质灾害发生点; When the [0132] 12, when the deformation reaches δ above in Figure 5, the material damage occurred, then appeared the initial point of geological disasters;

[0133] 同时我们也注意到当土壤中的水分达到11. 5%时,滑坡体的自重力会增加 [0133] We also note that when the soil moisture reached 11.5%, since gravity will increase landslide

11. 5%同时剪切力迅速减小这个现象,其受力关系图如图2所示;在静态预测中我们将土壤中的含水量作为关注的重点,比如在图12中的Η2这点就是含水量为11.5% ;接着我们用应力与应变的变化率的比K(i)值与几个力学控制阈值进行比对判断,算法的主要流程如下; 11.5% while the shearing force decreases rapidly to this phenomenon, its force relationship is shown in Figure 2; in static prediction of the moisture content of the soil we will focus as, for example, in Fig. 12 Η2 this point is the moisture content of 11.5%; then we use the rate of change of the ratio of stress to strain K (i) value with a few mechanical control threshold for comparison to determine the main flow of the algorithm is as follows;

[0134] 步骤1:读取当前的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,将这些数据保存到多媒体数据库中; [0134] Step 1: Read the current soil moisture and slope deformation data, save the data to a multimedia database;

[0135] 步骤2 :判断土壤含水量是否达到11. 5%,未达到的情况转到步骤I ; [0135] Step 2: Determine whether the soil moisture content 11.5%, does not meet the case, go to step I;

[0136] 步骤3 :读取前一个时间的土壤含水量和斜坡变形量数据,用公式(2)、(3)计算斜坡位移变化量△ δ (i)和土壤含水量的变化量ΛΗα),然后用公式(7)计算基于斜坡位移变化量△ S (i)和土壤含水量的变化量AH(i)的应力与应变的比值K(i); [0136] Step 3: Read soil moisture and slope deformation amount of data before a time, using the equation (2), the amount of change (3) calculate the amount of slope displacement △ δ (i) and soil water content ΛΗα), Then equation (7) to calculate the ratio of the amount of change in slope displacement △ S (i) changes in soil moisture and the amount of AH (i) of the stress and strain-based K (i);

[0137] 步骤4:根据应力与应变的比值K(i)与几个力学控制阈值进行比对,如果K(i)彡KVl则判断目前处于弹性变形阶段;如果KVl >K(i)彡KV2则判断目前处于塑性变形阶段,如果土壤含水量的变化量AH(i) SKHl发出橙色预警信息,否则发出蓝色预警信息;如果KV2 >K(i)彡KV3则判断目前处于塑性变形到破坏的过度阶段,这时发出红色预警信息;转到步骤I ; [0137] Step 4: According to the stress and strain of the ratio K (i) with a few mechanical control threshold for comparison, if K (i) the judgment is currently in San KVl elastic deformation stage; if KVl> K (i) San KV2 the judge is currently in the stage of plastic deformation, if the amount of change in soil water content AH (i) SKHl issued orange warning information, or issue a blue warning message; if KV2> K (i) San KV3 currently in the plastic deformation is determined to destroy the transitional phase, when the red warning information; go to step I;

[0138] 上述算法中KHl是土壤含水量的变化量的控制阈值,KV1、KV2、KV3分别为力学控制阈值,并满足以下关系KVl > KV2 > KV3 ; [0138] The algorithm KHl is the amount of change of soil moisture control threshold, KV1, KV2, KV3 mechanical control threshold respectively, and satisfy the following relationships KVl> KV2> KV3;

[0139] 所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块实质上是利用了地质灾害因果链上的②、⑤、⑥、⑧节点的监测; [0139] Based on the soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disaster prediction module is essentially the use of geological disaster monitoring ② causal chain, ⑤, ⑥, ⑧ nodes;

[0140] 所述的决策辅助模块,用于对上述多种地质灾害预测方法进行综合,上述四种预测方法是从不同层面进行预测预报的,如图13所示,每一种预测算法侧重面不一样,类似于多个专家做出的预测判断,在某种情况下四种预测的结果会一致,但是也会出现不同的预测结果,因此我们采用了信息融合的方式,即采用加权平均的方式进行决策辅助,从地质灾害因果链上的节点来考虑,一般来说,考虑的节点数目越多预测的精度将越高,节点位置越靠后预测的精度越高,根据这个思想本发明设计了决策辅助表得到每个模块的权值,如表2所示; Decision support module [0140] described for a variety of geological disasters in the above prediction method for synthesis, the four prediction method is performed at different levels of the forecast, 13, each face a predictive focusing algorithm not the same as, similar to the plurality of predictive judging made by the experts, in some cases the predicted results of four identical, but will be different predictions, we used method information fusion, i.e., the weighted average of way of decision aids, the causal chain from the node on geological disasters to consider, in general, the more the number of nodes to consider the higher prediction accuracy, the higher the node position rearward prediction accuracy, according to this idea of the present invention is designed a decision support table to get the right value for each module, as shown in Table 2;

[0141] 表2各种预测模块的权值系数 [0141] Table 2 of various weights coefficient prediction module

[0142] [0142]

Figure CN102013150BD00231

[0143] 在表2中所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块用I型、所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块用II型、所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块用III型、所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块用IV型表示;它们的权值系数分别为O. 5、1. 05、1. 75和1. 2,同时我们将蓝色预警的量化值定义为3、橙色预警的量化值定义为6、红色预警的量化值定义为9,用公式(8)计算最终综合判断结果, [0143] described in Table 2 is based on rainfall intensity rainfall geological disaster prediction module type I, based on the slope of the displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction module type II, based on the soil moisture and rainfall Rain and strong geological disaster prediction module type III, based on the amount of soil moisture and slope deformation geological disaster prediction module is represented by a type IV; their weight coefficients were O. 5,1 05,1 75.. and 1.2, and we will quantify the value is defined as three blue warning quantization values are defined as 6 orange alert, red alert is defined to quantify the value of 9, is calculated using equation (8) the final comprehensive evaluation result,

[0144] R= (R1X KfR11 X Kn+Rm X Km+RIV X Kiv) / (KfK1JUKiv) (8) [0144] R = (R1X KfR11 X Kn + Rm X Km + RIV X Kiv) / (KfK1JUKiv) (8)

[0145] 式中,R1和K1分别为所述的基于雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R11和K11分别为所述的基于斜坡位移-时间曲线进行地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,Rm和Km分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与雨量雨强的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,Riv和Kiv分别为所述的基于土壤含水量与斜坡变形量的地质灾害预测模块预测结果和权重系数,R为最终综合判断计算结果,判断计算结果的数值范围是O〜9,本发明中将最终判断计算结果用预警颜色、报告、把关和签发管理用表3进行总结; [0145] formula, R1 and K1 respectively, based on the rainfall heavy rain and strong geological disaster prediction coefficient prediction module and right, R11 and K11 are based on the slope of displacement - time curve for geological disaster prediction result prediction module and weight coefficient, Rm and Km are described based on soil moisture and rainfall intensity of rainfall prediction module to predict the results of geological disasters and weighting coefficients, Riv and Kiv are described based on the amount of soil moisture and slope deformation of geological disasters prediction module prediction results and the weighting factor, R is the final comprehensive judgment results, determination results of the numerical range is O~9, in the present invention, the final determination results with warning color, reporting, checks and issuing management are summarized in Table 3 ;

[0146] 表3辅助决策与预警信号发布流程 [0146] Table 3 decision support publishing process and warning signals

[0147] [0147]

Figure CN102013150BD00232

[0148] 图3为大规模地质灾害发生的沙滩模型,由于地质灾害点的地质复杂性,每一段山体的斜坡角度是不同的,图3中的黑色粗线表示山体每一段的坡度;滑坡体I的向下滑动会增加滑坡体2的下滑力2,滑坡体3的下滑同样也会减少滑坡体2的剪切力2,这样就形成了一条因果链,地质灾害的发生则往往从最薄弱的地方开始的,一旦在因果链上的某一个滑坡体出现下滑都会影响其上下相关的滑坡体的稳定,因此大规模的地质灾害的发生必定是从局部滑坡体发生滑动开始的。 [0148] FIG. 3 is the beach model of large-scale geological disasters, due to the complexity of the geological point of geological disasters, each section of the mountain slope angle is different, thick black line in Figure 3 represents the mountain slope of each segment; landslide I will increase the downward slide sliding force landslide 2 2 3 landslide decline will also reduce shear landslide 2 2, thus forming a causal chain of geological disasters are often the weakest The place to start, and once in the causal chain of one landslide decline will affect the stability of the landslide-related and down, so a large-scale geological disasters must be from the local landslide occurred slide began. 由于地质灾害点的地质环境的复杂性会导致地质灾害发生的时间和空间的随机性;要准确及时把握地质灾害发生的先兆必须监测各种小事件的发生,所以在地质灾害点上布置监测各滑坡体的形变以及调查清楚各滑坡体之间的关系都是十分重要的,要表达各滑坡体之间的空间关系必须采用GIS技术; Because of the complexity of the geological environment of geological hazards can lead randomness geological disasters in time and space; to accurately grasp the aura of geological disasters must monitor the occurrence of various small events, so arranged on each monitor geological hazards and the relationship between the various landslide landslide deformation survey clearly are very important to express the spatial relationship between the various landslide GIS technology must be used;

[0149] 按照地质灾害影响程度,预警信号发布流程中各级人员职责:(I)值班员认为达到发布、变更、解除预警信号条件时,应及时向领班预报员报告;报告内容包括了各预测模块的预测结果、几个基本监测数据和预测地质灾害点的空间位置数据;(2)领班负责发布、变更、解除预警信号的技术把关,提出发布建议,按照表3各类级别职责签发或逐级上报; [0149] According to the degree of influence of geological disasters, warning signals in the publishing process at all levels of staff responsibilities: (I) think attendant reached release, change, when lifted warning signal conditions, should be promptly reported to the foreman forecaster; The report includes various forecast prediction module, spatial location data of several basic geological disaster monitoring and forecasting data points; (2) the foreman responsible for the release, change, lifting technical checks warning signals, issue recommendations made in accordance with Table 3, or by issuing different levels of responsibility level reporting;

(3)值班处长接到报告后,负责与领班会商,提出发布建议,按照下表各类级别职责签发或逐级上报;(4)预报处处长接到报告后,综合发布意见,按照表3各类级别职责签发或逐级上报。 (3) Upon receipt of the report of the Director on duty, and the foreman in charge of consultation, issue recommendations made in accordance with the following table the issue of different levels of responsibility or escalation; (4) after receiving the report of the Director of Forecasting, integrated publishing comments According to Table 3 different levels of responsibility issued or escalation. 由于地质灾害发生的突然性,发生的破坏性极大,争分夺秒的在第一时间内发出预警预报对避灾减灾具有十分重要的意义,需要将预警信息尽快的传递到相关人员,任何相关人员作为参考都能通过网络直接看到所述的决策辅助模块所作出的预测报告内容,而官方作出的预警信号需要通过表3所示的发布流程; Because of the sudden, destructive geological disasters occurred great race against time to issue the first time early warning and forecasting is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation, early warning information needs to be passed to the relevant personnel as soon as possible, any relevant personnel as Reference can directly see the content of the forecast made by the decision support module through the network, and warning signals made official through the publishing process shown in Table 3;

[0150] 所述的信息发布模块,包括用于面向决策相关人员的内部预警信号发布流程的信息发布和用于面向外界的预警预报的信息发布;信息发布通过网络平台网页的方式发布,但是各级相关人员只能看到自己权限的内容,另外对于黄色预警以上级别的信息发布,通过短消息的方式发送给相关责任人,以便在第一时间内得到及时应对处理。 Information dissemination module [0150], comprising used for decision-making related to the internal personnel early warning signals of information dissemination and publishing process for early warning and forecast information for external publication; information was released by the network platform web the way, but each level personnel can only see the contents of their own rights, in addition to the yellow warning above the level of information release, sent to the responsible person by means of a short message in order to get a timely response to treatment in the first time.

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Classifications
International ClassificationG01C9/00, G01W1/14, G01B21/32, G01N27/22, G08B21/10
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